Radiative Forcing: Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Radiative forcing is the warming effect on our climate due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs). In climate science radiative forcing is the change in net irradiance between different layers of the atmosphere. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter. A positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy) tends to cool it. Sources of radiative forcing include changes in insolation (incident solar radiation) and in concentrations of radiatively active gases and aerosols.

The World Meteorological Organization released a report which indicates that carbon dioxide is accountable for 85% of radiative forcing. While current CO2 levels are unprecedented, methane has also reached the highest levels ever recorded.

Between 1990 and 2011 there was a 30 percent increase in radiative forcing. It is no coincidence that the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere has also reached a new record high in 2011

While atmospheric CO2 is currently more than 391 parts per million, levels of methane, known to be one of the worst GHGs, has reached 1,813 parts per billion. This new record is more than double (2.5x) pre-industrial levels.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contributed to an alarming report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA provided their own set of data arrived at independently and published in their Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).

"The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence supplied by long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence supplied by long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index."

"Increases in the abundance of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are largely the result of human activity and are largely responsible for the observed increases in global temperature [IPCC 2007]. However, climate projections have model uncertainties that overwhelm the uncertainties in greenhouse gas measurements. We present here an index that is directly proportional to the direct warming influence (also know as climate forcing) supplied from these gases. Because it is based on the amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this index contains relatively little uncertainty"

For more information click here.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Resources Institute Warning About New Coal Plants

Proposed coal projects around the world will quadruple the current capacity of all coal-fired plants in the US. The World Resources Institute  (WRI) released a report in November titled, Global Coal Risk Assessment. The report found that there are 1,199 new coal power plants in the works, totaling more than 1.4 million megawatts of capacity worldwide.

To put this in perspective, 1.4 million megawatts is four times the capacity of all the coal-fired power plants in the US. The world's leading coal powered nations going forward are China, Germany and India, all of which are increasingly active in transnational coal-fired project development.

China is the world largest coal consumer and they are expected to increase their usage until 2020, when demand is finally expected to level off. India continues to rely on coal and by 2025 that country is expected to overtake the U.S. as the number two consumer of coal. Coal demand has shifted from the Atlantic market to the Pacific market.

Although coal projects are planned in 59 countries, seventy-six percent of the coal plants are proposed for India and China. The US ranks seventh in coal power plant development.

Although there have been significant increases in natural gas extraction, coal continues to be used in the US and around the world. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, the global coal trade rose by 13.4 percent in 2010, reaching 1,083 million tonnes.

According to the IEA, coal supplied nearly half of the increase in global energy consumption over the last decade, growing faster than renewables. And the agency predicts that coal will continue its rise in the decades ahead.

To view the locations of proposed coal-fired power plants by country in an interactive map click here.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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PricewaterhouseCoopers Climate Change Warning

It may already be too late to keep global temperatures within the scientifically agreed upon upper threshold of 2 degrees. This is the conclusion of a report from the global business consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). Their report entitled "Too Late for Two Degrees?" suggests that even with a modest effort, global temperatures will continue to increase.

"Even doubling our current rate of decarbonization, would still lead to emissions consistent with 6 degrees of warming by the end of the century," noted Leo Johnson, a partner in PwC's Sustainability and Climate Change unit, in the report. "To give ourselves a more than 50 percent chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonization."

The PwC research indicates that to have even a modest chance of staying within the 2-degree threshold, the global economy would need to reduce overall carbon intensity by an unprecedented 5.1 percent every year for the next 40 years. This appears very unlikely in the context of the fossil-fuel dependent growth of the Chinese and Indian economies.

"Governments and businesses can no longer assume that a 2-degree Celsius warming world is the default scenario," the PwC authors declared. "Any investment in long-term assets or infrastructure, particularly in coastal or low-lying regions, needs to address more pessimistic scenarios. Sectors dependent on food, water, energy or ecosystem services need to scrutinize the resilience and viability of their supply chains."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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International Renewable Energy Institute Climate Warning

In a November 13 Press Release, the Renewable Energy Industry (IWR) indicated that last year greenhouse gases (GHGs) reached a record high. In 2011 there were 800 million more tons of GHGs than the preceding year. In total there were 34 billion tons of GHG emissions. In 1990, the global greenhouse gas output was estimated at 22.7 billion tons.

The report stated that among the top 10 greenhouse gas polluters, Russia, Germany, and the United States all made strides in reducing their emissions in 2011 based on figures from the previous year.

“If the current trend continues then global CO2 emissions will rise another 20 percent by the year 2020 to reach 40 billion tons of CO2,” said IWR director Norbert Allnoch.

China contributed the most with 8.9 billion tons, the US was second with 6 billion tons, with India ranking third with 1.8 billion tons, followed by Russia at 1.7 billion tons, Japan with 1.3 billion tons, and Germany at 804 million tons.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Warning from the International Energy Agency: The World's Ongoing Reliance on Fossil Fuels Crushes Hopes of Averting Climate Change

At its annual World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested that even if we factor the policy commitments already made or contemplated by world governments, energy-related emissions are will keep rising over the next 20 years. The key finding in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2012 edition of its World Energy Outlook is that ongoing reliance on fossil fuels will make it impossible to curtail climate change. The report indicates that Renewable energy is being neglected in favor of coal, oil, and natural gas.

“Taking all new developments and policies into account,” the IEA reported, “the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path.” Rather than move aggressively towards the development of renewable energy we appear to be increasing our consumption of fossil fuels.

The new oil and gas being extracted from shale formations has had a very negative impact on the political will of government to invest in renewables. Sadly, even with the significant increases in natural gas extraction, coal continues to be used in the US and around the world.

According to the IEA, coal supplied nearly half of the increase in global energy consumption over the last decade, growing faster than renewables. And the agency predicts that coal will continue its rise in the decades ahead.

China is the world largest coal consumer and they are expected to increase their usage until 2020, when demand is finally expected to level off. India continues to rely on coal and by 2025 that country is expected to overtake the U.S. as the number two consumer of coal.

The most dire warning in the report indicates that even if governments take vigorous steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption will result in “a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees C.”

As noted by the IEA report, fossil fuels continue to dominate government policies. Government energy subsidies in the developing world cause many national governments to seek out the least expensive energy options possible.

A total of six times more government money is spent on fossil fuel based energy subsidies than is spent on subsidies for renewable energy.

Globally, over half a trillion dollars went towards energy subsidies In 2011. This represents and increase of almost 30 percent from 2010.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning

In November, the World Meteorological Association's (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin stated that global CO2 levels are the highest they have ever been in human history, reaching 391 parts per million. Scientists warn that 350 parts per million is the upper limit for a a stable planet.

These levels of CO2 have been steadily rising at about 2 parts per million every year for the past decade. Current measurements of atmospheric carbon are 40% higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organization, said that since the dawn of industrialization in 1750, humans have emitted 375 billion tonnes, of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The WMO indicates that future emissions will make the situation far worse.

According to WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud,"These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on earth."

Oceans have already absorbed half of the atmospheric carbon, but this is causing the oceans to become more acidic and at a certain point they will not be able to absorb any more CO2.

“We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs,” said Jarraud. “These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on Earth.” he said.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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State of Green Business 2012

The fifth annual edition of the State of Green Business report continues efforts to measure the environmental impacts of the emerging green economy. In addition to documenting what progress companies are making -- if any -- in improving their environmental performance, they track larger trends that will affect corporate America in 2012.

 Click here to read the stories and download the report.

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World Bank Climate Change Warning

The World Bank has issued a report suggesting that the climate could warm a full 4 degrees by the end of the century. What is most troubling about this study is the fact that we may not be able to avert this temperature increase even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges. Sadly, most countries are far from fulfilling even these modest pledges.

The report is titled, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided. The widely agreed upon goal is to keep temperatures from increasing no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This upper safe limit is considered to be the best way of reducing the likelihood of sea levels, acidic oceans, freshwater scarcity, diminished agricultural yields, searing heat waves, grinding droughts and other extreme weather.

However there are some prominent scientists who have argued that even 2 degrees of warming would be disastrous. We have already seen an increase of about 0.8 degrees, and even if all pollution were arrested today, there are sufficient levels of GHGs in the atmosphere to further raise temperatures by another 0.8 degrees.

"Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim in a statement accompanying the report. "Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest," he said.

We need to appreciate that the climate problems we face are not subject to linear progressions. The so called non-linear outcomes will push us towards tipping points much faster. As noted by the World Bank report:

"As global warming approaches and exceeds 2-degrees Celsius, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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UNEP Warning: We are on the Brink of a Climate Catastrophe

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2012, released Nov. 21, indicates that there is a massive gulf between what governments have pledged in terms of GHG emissions and what they are actually doing. To stave off a temperature increase of more than 2°C, nations have pledged to reduce their emissions a total of 44 gigatonnes by 2020. However, the UNEP report indicates that if we stay on our current trajectory we are likely to see temperature increases of 3-5 °C which risks a climate catastrophe.

According to UNEP, the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is actually being done is 8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is 2 Gt higher than last year’s assessment.

“UNEP’s assessment confirms that the world is standing on the brink,” says Samantha Smith, head of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative.

“The solutions are all in our grasp—energy efficiency, clean renewable energy, smarter transport systems, action to protect our forests and a move to more sustainable agriculture. By far the biggest barrier to delivering these is the collective and individual failure of political will. Unless we act urgently, future generations will not forgive us,” Smith says.

Immediate actions to close the gap:
  • Governments must agree clear processes to increase ambition further before 2020, in the context of a promised new international agreement to be struck in 2015.
  • Governments must agree on robust common accounting rules for greenhouse gas emissions, and also agree to retire the large amounts of surplus “hot air” emission credits currently swilling around in the system.
  • Countries, including European countries, should also move to the top end of their emission pledges for 2020, and come forward with credible plans for meeting or exceeding them.
  • Governments must agree strong reforms to carbon market mechanisms to prevent double counting of offset credits and to rule out offsets that do not need to clear net emission reductions.
  • UNEP clearly shows that it is still possible to act in a way that can bring temperature increases within the two degree threshold, however we will need to act fast.
As stated by Jennifer Morgan, Director, Climate and Energy Program, World Resources Institute:

“This report is another harsh reminder that the world is simply not moving aggressively enough to tackle the climate challenge. The gap is growing and carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, and yet the current pledges and commitments by countries remain sorely inadequate. We are already seeing how climate change—with more extreme weather events, rising seas and more droughts—is taking its toll on people, property and our economy. Without a rapid change in direction, the world is headed more and more firmly down a path to even more severe changes that will be felt around the globe.”

The current levels of GHG emissions are around 14 percent above where they need to be. Delays only make it harder, and more expensive to make that adequate reductions. The window to address these climate concerns is getting smaller by the day. If we wait too long we may reach tipping points beyond which we cannot recover.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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The Effects of Global Warming

Building Sustainable Infrastructure: The New Tools (Webcast)

Infrastructure is back in the news, in the wake of Superstorm Sandy and other severe weather events. Combine that with aging roads, bridges, pipes and other things, and governments around the world are facing a major challenge. Of course, with challenges come opportunities — in this case to design and build infrastructure projects that are resilient, long-lasting, and affordable, especially during lean times. And to do that with sustainability principles in mind.

It won’t be easy. The OECD says $53 trillion is needed globally on infrastructure from now until 2030. With public funds totally outmatched, municipalities and engineers need to attract a hesitant private sector by laying out the project benefits, costs, and risks for the life of the project — not just upfront cost.

How do you assess sustainable infrastructure? Until recently, there has been no comprehensive, standardized framework in the United States to quantify sustainability. The new Envision rating system, jointly created by the Zofnass Program and Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure, strives to fill that void, providing a way to systematically think about sustainability in infrastructure.

Join this free, one-hour webcast on December 4, 2012 at 1:00 PM ET to learn more about how cities, states, and other entities are embedding sustainability into their infrastructure projects, and the tools and resources they use. In this webcast you’ll learn:

• Why government at all levels should embrace a more holistic project evaluation approach

• How engineering service providers, state infrastructure designers, and contractors can set themselves apart and find new ways to gain financial support by demonstrating total project benefits.

• How these transformations, along with other state-of-the-art technologies like 3D modeling, can make infrastructure a much more attractive investment for private investors.

Speakers:

Terry D. Bennett, LS LPF MRICS LEED AP

Terry is the senior industry program manager and strategist for civil engineering and planning at Autodesk. He is responsible for setting the company’s future vision and strategy for technology serving the planning, surveying, civil engineering and heavy construction industries, as well as cultivating and sustaining the firm’s relationships with strategic industry leaders and associations. Terry has been a practicing professional for close to 30 years and was the company manager and lead designer for a civil engineering, geotechnical and land surveying firm directing its services throughout the New England region within the United States. Over the last 25 years, he has been a global author and lecturer on the impact of technology to the infrastructure and urban planning, engineering, and construction industries focusing on sustainable approaches to urban infrastructure redevelopment. 

John Williams, Chairman & CEO Impact Infrastructure, LLC.

For 33 years, John has been a consultant and advisor to buildings, infrastructure, and economic development programs at all levels of government. His company, Impact Infrastructure, LLC., is an independent third party provider of performance data for infrastructure projects. He also serves on faculty at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, the Center for Environmental Research and Conservation in the Columbia Earth Institute, the SIAB at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design, the ISI Economics Committee (Chairman), and until recently served as Infrastructure Topic Leader for the Clinton Global Initiative.

Lisa Rephlo, CEM, PMP-VP, Energy Management Principal, MWH Americas, Inc

Lisa works with MWH’s Clean Energy and Sustainability Services group, providing clean energy, energy efficiency, sustainability and climate services to MWH clients. She assists clients with overall energy and sustainability strategy, including prioritizing projects by financial and sustainable benefits. Lisa’s 11 years of experience in MWH includes energy, construction and information technology. Prior to joining MWH, Lisa had 10 years working across energy efficiency, traditional power generation, distributed generation, and ice storage for district heating and cooling with ComEd/Exelon in Chicago. Lisa is currently participating on the Infrastructure Advisory Board of the Zofnass Program for Sustainable Infrastructure in conjunction with Harvard Graduate School of Design.

Moderator:

Joel Makower, Executive Editor, GreenBiz Group (Moderator)

Joel is Executive Editor of GreenBiz.com and author of "Strategies for the Green Economy," among other books. For more than 20 years, he has been a well-respected voice on business, the environment, and the bottom line. The Associated Press has called Joel "the guru of green business practices".

Click here to register.

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Moving Markets: GISR and the Future of Sustainability Ratings Webinar

The GISR Standard Development Program GISR Webinar will take place on December 13th from 10:00 - 11:00 AM EST. This webinar will deal with the issues shaping the future of and impact for sustainability (ESG) ratings, rankings and indices.

The interactive webinar will include experts from the sustainability ratings community - asset owners, asset managers, companies, ratings analysts. Bob Willard and Allen White will also be present for an exploration of critical issues shaping the next generation of sustainability ratings and what it will mean for companies and capital markets. This webinar is the first opportunity for investors, companies, ratings experts, and NGOs to learn about the ways to and benefits for engaging in GISR’s standard development program in 2013.

Topics include:

• The strategic fit of ratings in the emerging system of sustainability data, disclosure, performance assessment, and decision-making
• The case for convergence and accreditation around sustainability ratings’ principles, issues and indicators
• How the GISR standard development program is poised to influence the future of ratings and redefining the definition of value and value creation from business
•Standard development: We will introduce the launch plan for the three phases of the standard and introduce ways for asset owners, asset managers, companies, NGOs, non-profits and raters to participate and shape the future of GISR and ratings

Presenters
  • Bob Willard, Founder and CEO, Sustainability Advantage. Advisory boards; The Natural Step Canada, Forum for the Future US. Core faculty, the International Society of Sustainability Professionals (ISSP). Expert Advisor, GISR.
  • Allen White, Co-Founder and former CEO, GRI; Founder & Co-Chair, GISR
  • Mark Tulay, Program Manager, GISR. Bob Willard, author of The New Sustainability Advantage and other books on corporate sustainability, is a widely recognized speaker to business audiences worldwide. A leading authority on sustainable strategies, governance and practices, Bob will present his perspective on the value proposition of GISR in from the company and investor perspectives.
  • Dr. Allen L. White, Vice President and Senior Fellow, Tellus Institute, is co-founder of the Global Reporting Initiative and served as its first CEO and Founder and Co-Chair of GISR. He also is Director of Corporation 2020, an initiative focused on designing future corporations to create and sustain social mission, and serves as Senior Advisor to BSR. Dr. White has held faculty and research positions at the University of Connecticut, Clark University and Battelle Laboratories, and is a former Fulbright Scholar in Peru.
To reserve your seat at the webinar click here.

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Top Companies in the 2012 Climate Leadership Awards

A total of twenty companies were named the winners of the inaugural Climate Leadership Awards by the EPA, the Association of Climate Change Officers (ACCO), the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) (formerly the Pew Center on Global Climate Change), and The Climate Registry (TCR). The awards were presented at the Climate Leadership Conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. These awards recognize corporate, organizational, and individual leaders for their efforts to address climate change and reduce carbon pollution.

As reported by Environmental Leader, the winner of the Organizational Leadership award, IBM set a second-generation goal to reduce the GHG emissions associated with its energy use by 12 percent between 2005 and 2012. By 2010, IBM had achieved a reduction of 16.7 percent, as well as an energy conservation rate of 5.7 percent – surpassing its goal of 3.5 percent.

IBM reduced or avoided GHG emissions by an amount equivalent to 40 percent of its 1990 emissions between 1990 and 2005. In 2010, IBM established environmental management requirements for 27,000 first-tier suppliers in over 90 countries.

San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) also won the Organizational Leadership award in recognition of 20 years’ worth of rebates and incentives to encourage consumers and businesses to implement clean energy programs, saving customers more than $900 million, the EPA said.

SDG&E has exceeded the 25 percent by 2016 renewable energy requirement established by the California Renewables Portfolio Standard, which also requires one-third of SDG&E’s electricity sales to be renewable energy by 2020. SDG&E added 14 renewable contracts and 1,250 MW of capacity to its portfolio to lead California in acquisitions of renewable energy, the EPA said.

Recognized for actively addressing emissions outside their operations, Supply Chain Leadership award winners are the Port of Los Angeles, SAP and UPS.

The Port of Los Angeles prepares annual GHG inventories for its own emissions, and also conducts annual “expanded” reports on Scope 3 sources, including emissions for ships, trucks, and trains bound to and from the port’s terminals.

Since 2006, the Port has required all new and renewed leases to incorporate air emission controls and to conduct energy audits on terminal buildings to identify energy savings. Internationally, the Port played a role in the development of the World Ports Climate Initiative and the resulting free online resources: the Greenhouse Gas Toolbox, Carbon Footprinting Guide for Ports and Carbon Calculator.

Business software provider SAP earned its Supply Chain Leadership award for technology solutions that have helped more than 2,000 customers manage sustainability activities across the supply chain. In 2010, SAP energy management solutions for manufacturers helped customers avoid about 2.5 million tons of CO2 emissions while saving $470 million in energy costs, the EPA said.

Supply chain award winner UPS has focused on maintaining an efficient aircraft fleet and using low-carbon alternative fuels and vehicles, and participating in the development of scope 3 standards. In 2010, UPS avoided nearly three million metric tons of GHG emissions, the EPA said.

UPS became the first major logistics provider in the U.S. to offer customers the opportunity to purchase carbon offsets to reduce the impact of their shipping. In 2010 and 2011, UPS matched $1 million in offsets purchased by customers, the EPA said.

Other Climate Leadership Awards were given to:

Excellence in GHG Management (Goal Achievement): Campbell Soup Company, Casella Waste Systems, Conservation Services Group, Cummins Inc., Fairchild Semiconductor, Genzyme, Hasbro, Intel Corporation, International Paper, and SC Johnson.

Excellence in GHG Management (Goal Setting): Avaya, Bentley Prince Street, Campbell Soup Company, Ford Motor Company, Gap Inc. and Ingersoll Rand.

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