Cleantech the Next Great Investment Opportunity

Cleantech is the next great investment opportunity. Huge amounts of investment wealth have been generated by technological innovations like the microprocessor (personal computing and mobile telecommunications) and the Internet (ecommerce and social networks). These two innovations have ushered in unprecedented investment growth in the 1980s and 1990s. According to many predictions, Cleantech is the next investment wave that may very well eclipse the first two.

The rise of microprocessors driven the herculean growth of companies like Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC), Microsoft (NasdaqGS: MSFT), Dell (NasdaqGS: DELL), and Qualcomm (NasdaqGS: QCOM). The rise of the Internet has catapulted companies like Facebook to become a 28 billion dollar business. The Internet has also driven the stock of companies like Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL) Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG), Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN), and eBay (NasdaqGS: EBAY).

Cleantech is all about efficiency and this is a mantra for businesses looking to be more competitive in economically challenging times. The cleantech revolution is sure to grow as oil becomes more scarce and more expensive. Further, attempts to minimize the impacts of climate change will drive the price of cleantech stock.

Cisco Systems (NasdaqGS: CSCO) vice president Marie Hattar has said that cleantech will not only be the biggest innovation ever, but it will be 10 to 100 times bigger than the Internet.

Here are some forecasts for cleantech growth:

The global market for all cleantech applications, which includes energy storage and the smart grid, will double to $3.6 trillion by 2020.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) projects that the annual smart grid revenues will double by 2014 and then quintuple to more than $100 billion annually by 2030.

According to Cisco Systems, the communications portion of smart grid investment alone is expected to reach $20 billion annually.

Goldman Sachs sees smart grid investments totalling $750 billion over the next 30 years.

Wind power is projected to expand from $60.5 billion in 2010 to $122.9 billion in 2020.

Solar photovoltaics are projected to grow from a $71.2 billion industry in 2010 to $113.6 billion by 2020.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Green Memes and Schools

Environmentally oriented memes are sweeping around the world, nowhere is this more evident than in schools where institutions are copying each others green programing, green building and sustainable practices.

A "Meme" is a cultural unit (an idea or value or pattern of behavior) that is passed from one person to another by non-genetic means (as by imitation); memes are the cultural counterpart of genes. A meme is transmitted by repetition in a manner analogous to the biological transmission of genes. Memes are the DNA of human society, influencing every aspect of mind, behavior, and culture. The word was coined by British biologist R. Dawkins and is taken from the greek mīmeîsthai, to imitate.

The greening of academe is about a lot more than just recycling, green schools are imitating one another in areas like energy efficiency, renewable energy, and green building.

Like genes, memes usually proliferate because they offer some benefit to the hosts. Green memes are in schools around the world because being perceived as a sustainability leader attracts students, funding, and media attention. Academic programming that is built around sustainability is self propagating, the more an institution develops a cluster of educated talent the more that draws even more talent.

An education in a green school reduces the impact on the planet and teaches people the necessary skills to develop a sustainable economy. A sustainably educated workforce brings their knowledge to bear on the wide range of sustainable issues and companies reap the benefits of cost reductions, enhanced marketing appeal and employee interest.

Green memes are thoroughly permeating our educational establishments and changing the way we live and our relationship to the earth.
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Global Trends 2025: A Greener World

An energy transition from fossil fuels to alternative sources is inevitable, and "the only questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly such a transition occurs," this according to the top US intelligence panel. This week the Washington Times revealed the contents of a draft report from the National Intelligence Council (NIC). A report that took about 18 months to complete and "engaged hundreds of people around the world in solicitation of ideas."

The world's population is expected to grow by about 1.2 billion between 2009 and 2025 -- from 6.8 billion to about 8 billion people. And India's population will "overtake China's around 2025." But population expansion is not our only challenge.

The draft goes on to say: "The next 20 years of transition toward a new international system are fraught with risks, including possible interstate conflicts over resources." There are two major differences from an earlier report. First is the "assumption of a multipolar future." A second major change involves energy. The 2004 text predicts energy supplies "in the ground" are considered "sufficient to meet global demand." In contrast, the latest NIC report "sees the world in the midst of a transition to cleaner fuels."

"We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but with implementation lagging because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time," the draft says.

The panel is predicting that by 2025 China will be the world's second-largest economy and a major military power and Russia will become the world's fifth-largest economy in 20 years, (although the oil boom could catapult it there by 2017). The report envisions widespread appeal of "state capitalism, a loose term to describe a system of economic management that gives a prominent role of the state. Rather than emulate Western models of political and economic development, more countries may be attracted to Russia's and China's alternative development models."

It warns that the U.S. dollar "could lose its status as an unparalleled global reserve currency and become a first among equals in a market basket of currencies, forcing the U.S. to consider more carefully how the conduct of its foreign policy affects the dollar."

The text also says that conflicts over resources could re-emerge, because "perceptions of energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies." "In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regimes," it says.

The report is clear in its implications. As American military and economic dominance wanes, the US will need to have an effective alternative energy program to compete in a multipolar world. As pointed out by one of the reports authors, "the future is subject to influence" and what we do or don't do can make all the difference.

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