Showing posts with label greenhouse effect. Show all posts
Showing posts with label greenhouse effect. Show all posts

Fossil Fuel Powered Carbon Bombs

A February 11th, 2013 Greenpeace report indicated that the fossil fuel industry is planning 14 massive carbon bombs. As stated in the report, "The world is quickly reaching a Point of No Return for preventing the worst impacts of climate change." Taken together massive coal, oil and gas projects will produce as much new carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2020 as the output of the entire US.

According to Greenpeace these projects will increase already unsustainable levels of emissions 20 percent by 2020. If they go forward with these projects we are certain to surpass the carbon limits set by climate scientists which will make it impossible to avoid runaway climate change. According to scientists the upper safe temperature limit is 2 degrees Celsius, however, taken together, these projects will increases global temperatures by 5 or 6 degrees.

Greenpeace says these 14 developments would produce 54,674 million tons of coal, 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 260,000 million barrels of oil--but add 330 billion tons of CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050.

Some of the chief culprits identified in the Greenpeace list of 14 carbon bombs are:

Coal production in Australia
Coal production in China
Coal production in Indonesia
Deepwater oil projects in Brazil
Deepwater oil projects in the Arctic
Tar sands development in Canada
Tar sands development in Venezuela
Shale gas and conventional gas in the US
Shale gas and conventional gas in the Caspian Sea

As stated in the report the fossil fuel industry is moving ahead, "with total disregard for this unfolding global disaster."

The results in the Greenpeace report mirror findings in the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank. In 2012 the IEA reported that we could not burn more than one third of fossil fuel reserves by 2050 to remain within 2 degrees. Last year the World Bank also released a report which indicated that we are likely to see a 4-degree increase by century’s end.

Scientists are warning that time is running out to avert a climate catastrophe. There have also been dire warnings from the WRI, PricewaterhouseCoopers, International Renewable Energy Institute, World Meteorological Organization and UNEP.

The Greenpeace report was created by Ecofys, an environmental consultancy.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Scientist Warn Time is Running Out to Avert a Climate Catastrophe

It is still possible to stave off the worst effects of climate change but the window of opportunity is rapidly getting smaller. There have been a spate of reports just ahead of COP 18 in Doha that conclusively make the point that we must act now to reduce CO2 and other GHGs.

As reported in the Huffington Post, "It is still possible to avoid 2-degree warming, and arguing it is too late could very easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Michael E. Mann, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. "That having been said, the real issue is whether or not we have the political will."

However, a moderate effort will not be sufficient. The scope of the required actions is immense. In the absence of widespread popular support we have no reason to believe that governments will muster the political will necessary to make the required changes.

Jonathan Koomey, a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University, and the co-author of the first comprehensive analysis of the 2-degree limit back in 1989, has a more optimistic take.

"We tend to underestimate the possibility for change," Koomey said "At certain times, when people perceive a crisis, things can change very, very rapidly."

No matter how difficult it may seem Koomey believes that we can meet the challenge. He cites the example of the federal order that precipitated the herculean rise of America's industrial might in World War II. Still, he added, "We have to separate the lessons that this way of thinking can teach us and the realities of politics and interest groups. Urgent action is required."

"It would take an incredible effort, but that's what we're trying to spur," said leading climate activist Bill McKibben. "Given the damage that 1 degree is doing, we're already at 'dire. We dearly don't want to see what 2 degrees looks like, much less 3."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Radiative Forcing: Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Radiative forcing is the warming effect on our climate due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs). In climate science radiative forcing is the change in net irradiance between different layers of the atmosphere. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter. A positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy) tends to cool it. Sources of radiative forcing include changes in insolation (incident solar radiation) and in concentrations of radiatively active gases and aerosols.

The World Meteorological Organization released a report which indicates that carbon dioxide is accountable for 85% of radiative forcing. While current CO2 levels are unprecedented, methane has also reached the highest levels ever recorded.

Between 1990 and 2011 there was a 30 percent increase in radiative forcing. It is no coincidence that the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere has also reached a new record high in 2011

While atmospheric CO2 is currently more than 391 parts per million, levels of methane, known to be one of the worst GHGs, has reached 1,813 parts per billion. This new record is more than double (2.5x) pre-industrial levels.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contributed to an alarming report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA provided their own set of data arrived at independently and published in their Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).

"The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence supplied by long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence supplied by long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index."

"Increases in the abundance of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are largely the result of human activity and are largely responsible for the observed increases in global temperature [IPCC 2007]. However, climate projections have model uncertainties that overwhelm the uncertainties in greenhouse gas measurements. We present here an index that is directly proportional to the direct warming influence (also know as climate forcing) supplied from these gases. Because it is based on the amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this index contains relatively little uncertainty"

For more information click here.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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International Renewable Energy Institute Climate Warning

In a November 13 Press Release, the Renewable Energy Industry (IWR) indicated that last year greenhouse gases (GHGs) reached a record high. In 2011 there were 800 million more tons of GHGs than the preceding year. In total there were 34 billion tons of GHG emissions. In 1990, the global greenhouse gas output was estimated at 22.7 billion tons.

The report stated that among the top 10 greenhouse gas polluters, Russia, Germany, and the United States all made strides in reducing their emissions in 2011 based on figures from the previous year.

“If the current trend continues then global CO2 emissions will rise another 20 percent by the year 2020 to reach 40 billion tons of CO2,” said IWR director Norbert Allnoch.

China contributed the most with 8.9 billion tons, the US was second with 6 billion tons, with India ranking third with 1.8 billion tons, followed by Russia at 1.7 billion tons, Japan with 1.3 billion tons, and Germany at 804 million tons.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning

In November, the World Meteorological Association's (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin stated that global CO2 levels are the highest they have ever been in human history, reaching 391 parts per million. Scientists warn that 350 parts per million is the upper limit for a a stable planet.

These levels of CO2 have been steadily rising at about 2 parts per million every year for the past decade. Current measurements of atmospheric carbon are 40% higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organization, said that since the dawn of industrialization in 1750, humans have emitted 375 billion tonnes, of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The WMO indicates that future emissions will make the situation far worse.

According to WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud,"These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on earth."

Oceans have already absorbed half of the atmospheric carbon, but this is causing the oceans to become more acidic and at a certain point they will not be able to absorb any more CO2.

“We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs,” said Jarraud. “These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on Earth.” he said.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Bank Climate Change Warning

The World Bank has issued a report suggesting that the climate could warm a full 4 degrees by the end of the century. What is most troubling about this study is the fact that we may not be able to avert this temperature increase even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges. Sadly, most countries are far from fulfilling even these modest pledges.

The report is titled, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided. The widely agreed upon goal is to keep temperatures from increasing no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This upper safe limit is considered to be the best way of reducing the likelihood of sea levels, acidic oceans, freshwater scarcity, diminished agricultural yields, searing heat waves, grinding droughts and other extreme weather.

However there are some prominent scientists who have argued that even 2 degrees of warming would be disastrous. We have already seen an increase of about 0.8 degrees, and even if all pollution were arrested today, there are sufficient levels of GHGs in the atmosphere to further raise temperatures by another 0.8 degrees.

"Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim in a statement accompanying the report. "Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest," he said.

We need to appreciate that the climate problems we face are not subject to linear progressions. The so called non-linear outcomes will push us towards tipping points much faster. As noted by the World Bank report:

"As global warming approaches and exceeds 2-degrees Celsius, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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UNEP Warning: We are on the Brink of a Climate Catastrophe

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2012, released Nov. 21, indicates that there is a massive gulf between what governments have pledged in terms of GHG emissions and what they are actually doing. To stave off a temperature increase of more than 2°C, nations have pledged to reduce their emissions a total of 44 gigatonnes by 2020. However, the UNEP report indicates that if we stay on our current trajectory we are likely to see temperature increases of 3-5 °C which risks a climate catastrophe.

According to UNEP, the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is actually being done is 8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is 2 Gt higher than last year’s assessment.

“UNEP’s assessment confirms that the world is standing on the brink,” says Samantha Smith, head of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative.

“The solutions are all in our grasp—energy efficiency, clean renewable energy, smarter transport systems, action to protect our forests and a move to more sustainable agriculture. By far the biggest barrier to delivering these is the collective and individual failure of political will. Unless we act urgently, future generations will not forgive us,” Smith says.

Immediate actions to close the gap:
  • Governments must agree clear processes to increase ambition further before 2020, in the context of a promised new international agreement to be struck in 2015.
  • Governments must agree on robust common accounting rules for greenhouse gas emissions, and also agree to retire the large amounts of surplus “hot air” emission credits currently swilling around in the system.
  • Countries, including European countries, should also move to the top end of their emission pledges for 2020, and come forward with credible plans for meeting or exceeding them.
  • Governments must agree strong reforms to carbon market mechanisms to prevent double counting of offset credits and to rule out offsets that do not need to clear net emission reductions.
  • UNEP clearly shows that it is still possible to act in a way that can bring temperature increases within the two degree threshold, however we will need to act fast.
As stated by Jennifer Morgan, Director, Climate and Energy Program, World Resources Institute:

“This report is another harsh reminder that the world is simply not moving aggressively enough to tackle the climate challenge. The gap is growing and carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, and yet the current pledges and commitments by countries remain sorely inadequate. We are already seeing how climate change—with more extreme weather events, rising seas and more droughts—is taking its toll on people, property and our economy. Without a rapid change in direction, the world is headed more and more firmly down a path to even more severe changes that will be felt around the globe.”

The current levels of GHG emissions are around 14 percent above where they need to be. Delays only make it harder, and more expensive to make that adequate reductions. The window to address these climate concerns is getting smaller by the day. If we wait too long we may reach tipping points beyond which we cannot recover.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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The Safe Upper Limit of Atmospheric Carbon is 350 PPM

As reviewed at 350.org, the science is clear, global warming is happening faster than ever and humans are responsible. Global warming is caused by releasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The most common greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. Global warming destabilizes the delicate balance that makes life on this planet possible. Just a few degrees in temperature can completely change the world as we know it, and threaten the lives of millions of people around the world. The planet is in peril because we've poured too much carbon into the atmosphere, and we already seen troubling signs including extreme weather and melting ice caps.

As of 2012 we have recorded 400 parts per million (PPM) of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the arctic. According to leading scientists, to avoid runaway climate change, we need to get that number down to 350 PPM (the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide).

Dr. James Hansen, of NASA, the United States' space agency is one of the world's leading authorities on climate science. He has been researching global warming for decades and along with his colleagues he has demonstrated that global warming is real using both real-world observation, computer simulation, and mountains of data about ancient climates to calculate what constitutes dangerous quantities of carbon in the atmosphere.and he was the first to publicly testify before the U.S. Congress, in June of 1988, that global warming was real. Click here to see the full text of James Hansen's paper on the upper safe limit of atmospheric carbon.

Getting back to 350 means transforming our world. The business community needs to continue to embrace sustainability in ever growing numbers. We need more renewable energy and less fossil fuels, greater efficiency and less waste, we also need more trees and less clear cutting. Perhaps most importantly getting atmospheric carbon down below 350 requires a global treaty that limits the amount carbon emissions.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Arctic Monitoring Stations Report CO2 Levels of 400 PPM

The Arctic region continues to serve as the global climate “canary in a coal” mine. Now, as with average temperature rise, the region is leading into a new troubling milestone as monitoring stations near a remote outpost near Barrow, Alaska are among several such stations to report that average concentrations of CO2 have reached an average of 400 parts per million (PPM) this spring.

“The northern sites in our monitoring network tell us what is coming soon to the globe as a whole,” reports atmospheric scientist Pieter Tans with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). “We will likely see global average CO2 concentrations reach 400 ppm about 2016.”

NOAA reported that six other arctic monitoring stations in their international cooperative air sampling network have reported CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm this spring. These measurements from remote high latitude stations in Alaska, Canada, Iceland, Finland, Norway and the North Pacific reflect background levels of CO2 influenced by the long-term trend of increased human emissions, as opposed to measurements of more direct emissions near population centers. NOAA’s Cape May, New Jersey station has exceeded 400 ppm in the spring for several years.

Source: Global Warming is Real

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Mexico Passes Climate Change Law

The Mexican legislature has recently passed a climate change law. As reported in Nature, the new  law will reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 30 percent below business-as-usual levels by 2020, and by 50 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. The law also mandates that Mexico will derive 35 percent of its electricity from renewable resources 2024. The climate change bill passed Mexico’s lower house with a vote of 128 for and 10 against and in the Senate the legislation passed unanimously.

The strong support in both the house and the Senate suggests the Mexico's legislators are not concerned about the country's fossil fuel industry. According to U.S. based petroleum consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton, the country sits on the world’s third-largest petroleum reserves.

This legislation is much needed as Mexico is both the world's 11th largest economy and
11th largest GHG emitter.

The next hurdle will be ensuring that this legislation is acted upon. "We're very good at making laws. And then the problem is enforcing them," Juan Bezaury, a Mexican public policy expert with the Nature Conservancy, told Nature.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Primer on CO2 and Other GHGs

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is at the center of efforts to manage climate change. Many identify CO2 as the leading cause of calamitous environmental destruction, but how does this naturally occurring substance wreak such havoc on our environment?

For over 100 years the scientific community has been warning us of the dangers of global warming caused by CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. In 1896 S. Arrhenius, published the paper "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground." More recently a plethora of scientific studies have corroborated these early concerns. (In a forthcoming post we will review some of the scientific evidence for global warming).

CO2 and Other GHGs

CO2 is a naturally occurring chemical compound. CO2 is part of the respiration of plants and animals and it is produced through the decay of carbon based material from plants and animals. Some natural processes, such as volcanoes and geysers, also add CO2 to the atmosphere.

Although CO2 gets most of the attention there are other naturally occuring greenhouse gases (GHGs). Water vapor is by far the most important GHG. It evaporates mostly from the ocean, and it causes earth's surface to be about 30°C warmer (out of the 36°C of warming caused by all greenhouse gases combined). Methane is produced by bacteria in wetlands and bogs, cattle, rice paddies, termites, landfills, and coal mining. Nitrous oxide is produced from microbes in the soil and the ocean. Halocarbons such as refrigerants are used in air conditioners and tropospheric ozone, produced in smog.

The Greenhouse Effect

Naturally occuring GHGs like CO2 warm and regulate the earth's temperature through the greenhouse effect. Warming occurs because the GHGs, although transparent to incoming solar radiation, absorb infrared (heat) radiation from the Earth that would otherwise escape from the atmosphere into space. GHGs re-radiate some of the heat back towards the surface of the Earth.

Normally almost half of energy emanating from the sun is trapped in our atmosphere. This natural phenomenon is what we call the greenhouse effect, GHGs warm the earth so that it is conducive to life, if there were no GHGs the temperature on earth would fall below –18 C.

GHGs and Global Warming

The unnatural addition of GHGs to the atmosphere is known as global warming. This unnatural build-up of GHGs in the troposphere (the lower part of the atmosphere about 10-15 kilometres thick) is trapping additional heat. The amount of heat in the troposphere depends on concentrations of GHGs and the amount of time these gasses remain in the atmosphere. CO2 remains in the troposphere between fifty and two hundred years.

CO2 and Human Activities

Anthropogenic (human-produced) CO2 is mixing with naturally produced CO2 and influencing the earth's radiation balance. The two main human activities that increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere are fossil fuel burning and land clearing. The burning of fossil fuels adds about 6 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year.

Prior to the industrial revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentrations had not changed appreciably for over 850 years. That changed around 1850 when human processes began emitting significant quantities of GHGs. Pre-industrial levels of CO2 were approximately 270 and according to scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory, as of 2008, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were at 387 parts per million (ppm). This represents an increase of approximately 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest levels of CO2 in at least 650,000 years.

The US national oceanic and atmospheric administration research has corroborated other findings that indicate CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than expected. Their review suggests that levels of CO2 emmisions are on the increase, from 1970 to 2000, the concentration of CO2 rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has surged to an average 2.1ppm. "Researchers suggest the trend could mean that the earth is losing its natural ability to absorb billions of tonne of CO2 each year."

CO2 emissions from cars and industry are a major cause of what we refer to as global warming. These increasing CO2 emissions cause about 50-60% of the global warming. Human activities have released an amount of CO2 that exceeds the amount sequestered in biomass, the oceans, and other sinks. About 22% of the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations exist due to these human activities. Fossil fuel combustion for energy generation causes about 70-75% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The remaining 20-25% of the emissions are caused by land clearing and burning and by emissions from motor vehicle exhausts.

Other GHGs Associated with Human Activity

According to Ocean World, about two thirds of the methane emissions into the atmosphere come from human activity, mostly from the northern hemisphere. Methane concentration was 1783 parts per billion in 2004, which was 155% larger than pre-industrial concentrations. The rise in methane appears to have leveled off, and concentrations have increased only 5 parts per billion since 1999. Methane does not remain long in the atmosphere, about 8 years (Fischer et al, 2008). However methane is 22 time more effective in absorbing infrared radiation than CO2.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is also a byproduct of burning fossil fuels at high temperatures. About one-third of the emissions into the atmosphere come from human activity. N2O concentrations were 319 parts per billion in 2004, which was 18% larger than pre-industrial concentrations. Its lifetime in the atmosphere is about a century.

US GHG Emissions

Although the US is only 4.6% of the world's population, American energy use accounts for 24% of all the world's energy. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 89.4% of energy consumption in the US is derived from burning fossil fuels.

The average American uses almost 31 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per day, or 1.3 kilowatts (kW) continuously. Most of that electricity is produced by burning fossil fuels. In certain other fully modern countries (England, France, Germany, Japan), the per-capita average ranges from 0.6 to 0.8 kW. At the other end of the scale, in developing countries where, even if some cities are electrified, rural areas are generally without power, the number is much lower: Mexico uses 0.14 kW, Thailand 0.10, and Peru 0.05. India is way down, at 0.037. China is around 0.07.

While most GHG emissions derive from industrial processes in developed countries like the US, GHGs from developing countries are rising. At the current rate, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are expected to double in this century.

GHGs contribute to the greenhouse effect and many anthropogenic GHGs are on the increase. In the next post we will review the effects that they are having on the earth and its inhabitants.

Next: The Effects of Global Warming / Debunking CO2 Myths and the Science of Global Warming / Action on Global Warming.

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