Showing posts with label anthropogenic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label anthropogenic. Show all posts

The Fossil Fuel Industry and Republican Climate Change Deception

Sen. Whitehouse attributes climate misinformation to the fossil fuel industry and their Republicans minions. He points to the scientific inaccuracy of the climate change hiatus as a classic case in point. Such lies are deliberately woven to prevent us from acting.

The science is clear, and comprehensive. Global warming is caused by carbon pollution. However, for decades the fossil fuel industry has bought off Republicans in the senate who proceed to use their position to undermine the facts and obstruct action on climate change.

The fossil fuel industry has provided massive contributions to Republicans who are in effect owned by the dirty energy industry. Republicans have thwarted climate action while ignoring the pleas of scientists, national security leaders, businesses and religious leaders.

There is widespread corruption in the fossil fuel industry and recently the industry's own document have revealed evidence of disinformation.

The evidence is clear, the world is warming. We known that 17 of the 18 hottest years on record and 2014 was the hottest year on record, although it is expected 2015 will eclipse last year's record heat.

A Stanford study and others have indicated that there is no hiatus in warming and there is no stall in year to year temperature increases. The fossil fuel industry and Republicans cynically cherry pick a handful of statistical data to deceive the American public.

While Whitehouse should be commended for his advocacy of climate science, while the fossil fuel industry and Republicans are the incarnation of the worst form of short sighted self-interest. The fossil fuel industry's control of Congress and obstructionism on climate action is a national shame and an international catastrophe. Generations to come will look at the Republican party as some of the most villainous political forces ever unleashed on the earth. Even some Republicans are breaking ranks because they can no longer countenance the anti-science subterfuge of their own party. 

In this video Sen. Whitehouse discusses the bogus, debunked "global warming hiatus" aka the "climate pause" that deniers continue to tout. As Whitehouse says, now is the time for courageous actions and strategies. It is time for us to wake up, time to come together in good faith to tackle to threat of climate change.



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IPCC Synthesis Report: Background and Summary

In November the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its final world Synthesis Report. This is the world's most comprehensive assessment of scientific knowledge on climate change. The conclusions in the report are the starkest warnings yet. Urgent action is required as we are rapidly running out of time.

The final Synthesis Report summarizes three massive climate investigations:

1. The report on the physical science of climate change was released in September 2013. It reiterated the finding that humans are the leading cause of climate change. They further demonstrated that as measured by a number of indicators (ice sheet melt, glacial melt and sea level rise), climate change is occurred faster than predicted. It further stated that this is impacting meteorological conditions by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

2. The report on impacts, adaptations, and vulnerability was released in March 2014. It found that people everywhere are vulnerable to climate change and we have done little to adapt to them. It further concluded that climate change is already harming agricultural yields and affecting food availability and prices. In the absence of immediate action temperatures increases will exceed the internationally agreed upon upper threshold limit of 2ºC.

3. The report on mitigation measures was released in April 2014 it concluded that we must see massive reductions in carbon emissions from the energy sector. It further indicated that our use of renewable forms of energy must quadruple by 2050. It stated that with the cost of renewables declines, deforestation slowing we still have a chance to stay within the 2ºC upper temperature limit, if we act soon. It further stated that we cannot afford to keep investing in fossil fuel infrastructure without surpassing the upper temperature limits.

Brief Review of the Synthesis Report

The final report restates the fact that the scientific case is irrefutable and immediate action is needed. Humans are the cause of climate change and we are already seeing its impacts on every continent. If we do not reign-in greenhouse gases we will see profound impacts that will fundamentally alter the natural world and human society.

Policy Action Required

What we need in terms of action is serious policy shifts. Youba Sokona, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III (Mitigation), finds it technically feasible to transition to a low-carbon economy. However, he notes, "what is lacking are appropriate policies and institutions. The longer we wait to take action, the more it will cost to adapt and mitigate climate change."

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Infographic - Anthropogenic Bird Mortality

Anthropogenic Causes of Bird Mortality: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

Human activities cause millions of bird deaths each year. Climate change is a serious threat to bird populations and the burning of fossil fuels are the leading cause of global warming. While fossil fuel induced climate change is the single greatest threat to birds, renewable sources of energy like wind and solar have negligible impacts. Other salient causes of bird mortality are habitat loss, domestic cats, buildings, power lines, transmission towers, contaminates and aviation.
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According to the most recent Living Planet Report, birds are among the species that have been reduced by more than half over the last forty years.There are currently a total of 9,956 birds that are listed as endangered.

Contaminates

Birds are subject to poisoning from a variety of environmental contaminates. Birds can become sick or die from ingestion or exposure to toxins like pesticides and herbicides.

Some of the worst contaminates are toxic metals like lead and cadmium. These metals are commonly released from the erosion of tailings, mine waste, smelting, and dust. Birds in areas of Southeast Missouri, commonly called the Lead Belt, have cadmium and lead levels that are several times the levels of reference birds. According to a USGS study conducted at the request of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, lead poisoning in birds can cause abnormal muscular function, kidney and liver failure, decreased fertility, and anemia.

In the Arctic, contaminates are having an adverse effect on bird populations. As explained by Geir Wing Gabrielsen, an environmental scientist at the Norwegian Polar Institute, "We have documented several direct harmful effects of these and other chemicals, especially in seabirds.."

Acid rain is also linked to population declines in forest birds. Acid rain washes calcium out of the soil and decreases the amount of calcium-rich prey required to produce healthy eggs. 

Habitat Loss

One of the most significant threats to birds is habitat loss due to human development and agriculture

In New York state, there is a particularly interesting case illustrating the complex ecological implications of adapting to a changing climate.

As reported in a Huffington post article, habitat conservation efforts on behalf of a small bird are holding up a project designed to dampen the impact of hurricanes. The project seeks to build massive sand dunes on New York's Fire Island. However, if it goes forward, the project would destroy the habitat of the Piping Plover. An injunction has been issued that has halted a $207 million plan to replenish the sand along a 19-mile barrier.

As this example illustrates, even efforts to help insulate people from the impacts of extreme weather can threaten bird habitats. 

Solar

Perhaps the most contentious issue pitting people against birds involves renewable energy. Studies have shown that both the wind and solar installations contribute to bird mortality.

Solar power has been singled out as a cause of bird death. The concentrating solar power industry allegedly kills birds in a few different ways. Large-scale solar plants cause bird deaths either due to collision with solar panels, collision with heliostats or exposure to elevated concentrations of solar flux (reflected sunlight) close to the tower.

Although the numbers are relatively low compared to other sources of avian mortality, common sense efforts are being employed to reduce bird mortality from solar power. This includes proper positioning of solar arrays and distress call based bird deterrents.

Wind

Wind turbines pose a threat to bird species ranging from eagles to small passerines, either through collisions or by interrupting their migration routes. Nesting and foraging areas can also be impacted by wind farms.

However, early research may have overestimated the number of birds killed by wind turbines. Newer wind turbines reduce bird mortality. The most recent research indicates that an estimated 134,000 to 230,000 small passerines collide annually with turbines across the U.S. and Canada. Using conservative estimates, this amounts to less than 0.01 percent of the population of small passerines.

In the UK, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and windfarm opponents have found themselves at odds over the risk turbines pose to bird species, particularly birds of prey. According to a Carbon Brief examination of the research on the impact of wind turbines on birds, that impact is negligible.

The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) conservation director, Martin Harper, says a large body of scientific evidence shows "appropriately located windfarms have negligible impacts" on bird populations.

A large peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Ecology monitored UK data for ten different bird species and found only two were adversely impacted.

Bird species with poor frontal vision and large birds that reproduce more slowly appear to be among those that are most adversely impacted by wind farms.

In the Altamont Pass in California, one study found about 4,000 wind turbines killed 67 golden eagles and 1,127 birds of prey in a year. In southern Spain, 252 wind turbines located in an area used by many birds of prey and on the migratory path of many large birds killed 124 birds of prey in a year. At another location in southern Spain, 256 turbines killed 30 griffin vultures and 12 common kestrels.

The RSPB attributes these deaths to "poorly sited wind farms." According to Birdlife International, with a thorough environmental assessment as part of the planning process, bird deaths can be significantly reduced.

Other Causes

The bird deaths attributed to renewable energy need to be put into context. The FAA reports that in the aviation industry alone, there were over 117,000 bird strikes in the 20 years from 1990 and 2010. However, it should be noted that birds also strike buildings, power lines and transmission towers by the millions every year. The Journal Nature reported that human activities and structures including buildings, roads and domestic cats are far more destructive to birds than wind turbines.

One study determined that U.S. wind farms killed 20,000 birds in 2009, while nuclear plants killed about 330,000 and fossil fueled power plants more than 14 million. According to this study, fossil-fueled facilities are about 17 times more dangerous per gigawatt hour of electricity produced to birds than wind and nuclear power stations.

Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels have proven lethal to bird populations.  The most recent studies show that the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico killed about 800,000 birds in coastal and offshore waters.

As reported in a Global Warming is Real article, tens of million of migratory birds are threatened by Canada's tar sands. Citing the recently released report by the National Wildlife Federation (NWF) and the Natural Resources Council of Maine (NRCM), almost half of the 292 different migratory bird species, comprising 75 million birds, are threatened by tar sands expansion. Because birds mistake tailing ponds for natural bodies of water, Canada's oil industry has already killed hundreds of thousands of birds.

The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill is known to have killed as many as half a million birds including at least 250 Bald Eagles. While over 30,000 carcasses of 90 species of birds were collected from the beaches in the wake of the disaster, this is only a tiny fraction of the actual mortality. The spill remains harmful to this day as birds continue to suffer from chronic effects and decreased reproduction. 

Climate Change

Climate change may be the most serious threat faced by birds. Given that fossil fuels are a leading cause of bird deaths and the primary cause of climate change, renewable sources of energy are of great benefit.  The RSPB says it supports wind power because climate change poses the "single greatest long-term threat" to bird species. Climate change is predicted to harm bird populations by affecting breeding or migration patterns, or altering their habitats.

According to a new National Audubon Society study,  more than 300 bird species in North America are under threat of climate change. As reported in Uncover California, Audubon's chief scientist Gary Langham said that about half of the bird species of North America could go extinct.

Climate change puts a total of 314 species of birds at risk in North America. While 200 of these species may be able migrate to a more suitable location, 126 species will have nowhere else to go.

Source: Global Warming is Real

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Event - Earth Science & Climate Change (Earth Science-2015)

The 4th International Conference on Earth Science & Climate Change (Earth Science-2015) will take place on June 15-17, 2015, in Alicante, Spain. The main theme of the conference is: An Insight into the Recent Advancements in Geosciences and Climate Change Control. This OMICS Group event aims to promulgate knowledge and facilitate the sharing of new ideas amongst the professionals, industrialists and students from research areas of Earth Science and Climate Change.

The focus will be on Earth Science, Atmospheric Change, Climatology, Meteorology, Environmental Issues, Global Warming, Geotechnical engineering, remote sensing.

Earth provides resources and the exact conditions to make life possible. However, with the advent of technology and industrialization, the Earth's resources are being pushed to the brink of depletion. Non-sustainable industrial practices are not only endangering the supply of the Earth's natural resources, but are also putting burden on life itself by bringing about pollution and climate change. The major role of earth science scholars is to examine the delicate balance between the Earth's resources and the growing demands of industrialization. Through research and development, earth scientists have the power to preserve the planet's different resource domains by providing expert opinion and information about the forces which make life possible on Earth.

In the atmosphere, there are several things or qualities of the atmosphere which will be measured. Rain, which might be observed or seen anywhere and anytime, was one of the primary ones to be measured historically. Many of the large-scale environmental changes affected by human activities are mediated through the chemistry of the environment. Key changes include the increases in the concentration of tropospheric oxidants (including Natural Calamities), global spread of air pollution, and global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion.

A geotechnical engineer then determines and designs the type of foundations, earthworks, and/or pavement sub grades essential for the intended man-made structures to be built. Remote sensing makes it likely to collect data on dangerous or inaccessible areas. Remote sensing also replaces expensive and slow data collection on the ground, ensuring in the process that areas or objects are not disturbed. Petrology uses the classical fields of mineralogy, petrography, optical mineralogy, and chemical analyses to explain the composition and texture of rocks.

CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Geosciences and Geology
Meteorology
Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences
Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Technologies and Applications of Earth Science
Global Warming and Environmental Change
Environmental and Marine Sciences
Environmental Issues and Hazards
Environmental Management
Effect of Climate Change on Ecosystem

To register click here.

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We are Running out of Time to Avert a Climate Catastrophe (PwC Report)

PricewaterhousCoopers (PwC) is hardly known for hyperbole, but their latest report warns of catastrophe if we fail to reign in carbon emissions. The report says that every passing year we are getting further away from averting a climate disaster.

PwC's “Low Carbon Economy Index,” chronicles our ongoing failure to act on the climate crisis. They refer to an “unmistakable trend” of growing emissions and a warming world. The report states that we have failed to do what we must to keep temperatures below the internationally agreed upon upper threshold limit of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

The consequences of failing to act include food security threats, coastal inundation, extreme weather events, ecosystem shifts, and widespread species extinction.

The PwC report clearly states that, “the gap between what we are doing and what we need to do has again grown, for the sixth year running.”

If we continue on our current trajectory we will see temperature increases of 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

To succeed in keeping temperatures within manageable limits the global economy needs to “decarbonize” by 6.2 percent every year until the end of the century.

The report singles out countries that are leading carbon emissions per unit of GDP. They include United States, Germany, and India who are still adding carbon intensity, year-on-year. The report further states that we are running out of time to avert a climate catastrophe.

"The timeline is also unforgiving. The [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] and others have estimated that global emissions will need to peak around 2020 to meet a 2°C [3.6 degrees F] budget,” the report says. “This means that emissions from the developed economies need to be consistently falling, and emissions from major developing countries will also have to start declining from 2020 onwards.”

If we are to keep temperatures within acceptable limits, G20 nations will need to cut their annual energy-related emissions by one-third by 2030, and by just over half by 2050.

This report adds to the building pressure to come up with a global agreement on climate change by 2015.

To read the report click here (PDF),

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Failure to Reduce Emissions will Result in an Ecological and Economic Catastrophe (IPCC's Leaked "Synthesis" Report)

The latest leaked Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report reiterates three points that we already know and warns us of dire consequences if we fail to act. Climate change is here, it is caused by humans and it has a number of dangerous impacts. It is noted that extreme weather like heat waves, drought, flooding and rising seas are already serious problems today.

The document specifically states that as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise we can expect the situation to worsen. This means more "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems."

The report spells out the high level of risk associated with failing to significantly reduce emissions. These risks include sea-level rise causing widespread coastal flooding (effecting 70 percent of the world’s coastlines by the end of the century), more severe and enduring heat waves and droughts, torrential downpours, diminished agricultural yields resulting in widespread food shortages, species extinction and pest outbreaks. Ocean acidification is another major concern that could have serious implications for the entire interrelated web of marine life.

These climate impacts will have major economic and social consequences described in the report as "catastrophic," this includes massive material costs, violent conflicts, environmental refugees and significant increases in global poverty.

The 127 page climate draft of the Synthesis Report (SYN) was leaked at the end of August, it essentially summarizes the findings in the three preceding IPCC reports:

WGI: The Physical Science Basis - September 2013

WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – March 2014

WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – April 2014

We have already documented a temperature increase of .85 Celsius since 1880. This is the fastest temperature rise since well before the dawn of human civilization more than 10,000 years ago. It is expected to get much hotter as we go forward.

The report sets the stage for climate talks scheduled for LIma, Peru this coming December and the all important global climate agreement hoped for at the meeting in Paris planned for the end of 2015. In 2009 countries committed themselves to finding solutions that would keep global temperature increases below the internationally agreed upon 2 C (3.6 F) upper threshold limit. Without major reductions in carbon emissions we are on track to substantially exceed this limit. Conservatives estimates suggest that we will see a temperature increases of 3.7 C by the end of the century, which is almost twice the prescribed upper threshold limit.

The leaked report clearly indicates that we are not doing nearly enough to stave off catastrophe, even if we get serious about climate action it will be very difficult to stay within the prescribed upper threshold limits. Perhaps the most sobering fact is that even if we act now, there’s a real risk of “abrupt and irreversible” changes.

The Synthesis Report (SYR) is expected to be finalized and released for review at a Copenhagen meeting scheduled for October.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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The Theory of Natural Warming is Dead

Recent studies have put the final nails into the coffin of natural warming theories. While Republicans and other conservatives hold on to natural warming theories the way NRA members cling to their guns, recent science has utterly dispelled the viability of this myth.

While it is impossible to refute the observation that the earth has warmed since 1880, it is not uncommon to hear Republicans say that while global temperatures may be warming, it is not attributable to human activity.

An April analysis published in the journal Climate Dynamics, reviews temperature data since 1500 and concludes that the global warming we have seen since the dawn of the industrial era cannot be attributed to natural warming.

This research was conducted by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy, and rules out the hypothesis that warming over the past century is due to natural fluctuations.

“This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy said. “Their two most convincing arguments—that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong—are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”

Lovejoy's conclusions come with confidence levels that exceed 99 percent certainty. The odds of warming being caused by natural fluctuations are less than one in a thousand.

Lovejoy's new study is based on statistical methodology that uses multi-proxy climate reconstructions as well as fluctuation-analysis techniques from nonlinear geophysics. Lovejoy’s findings effectively complement other studies including those that use computer modeling. His findings are also corroborated by the most recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and the Third US National Climate Assessment.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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New Authoritative Report Chronicles US Climate Change

The most comprehensive US climate report to date indicates that the changing climate is a national problem that is already adversely impacting key sectors of the economy.

On May 6th, 2014, the Obama Administration released the Third US National Climate Assessment. The 841-page report documents more frequent and intense extreme weather events, (heat, downpours, floods, droughts), wildfires, melting ice, rising sea levels, ocean acidification and water scarcity. These impacts are already happening and they are expected to get far worse if we continue with business as usual.

This three-year public and peer reviewed research was conducted by a team of over 300 climate scientists and experts along with input from over 13 federal science agencies. The data was drawn from a wide range of sources including satellites, weather balloons and buoys. The report is a key part of the President's Climate Action Plan.

While the science is clear and irrefutable, the American people are divided. Led by misinformation campaigns from the fossil fuel industry and their Republican minions, huge swaths of Americans continue to doubt the veracity of anthropogenic climate change.

Republicans and other climate deniers called the report another “scare tactic” by the administration. They continue to argue against the science or for the primacy of the economy over action to mitigate climate change. They completely ignore the fact that the economy will be utterly ravaged by runaway climate change.

The report along with the issue of climate change itself is sure to be a prominent campaign issue in the 2014 midterms.

To read the report click here.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Latest IPCC Report on the Viability of Fast Actions to Limit Climate Change Including SLCP

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report indicates that many fast actions for addressing climate change are proving to be more affordable than previously imagined. The report is entitled Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, it is the third of three Working Group Reports, which make up the IPCC's fifth Assessment Report.

The report addresses the viability of restricting short lived climate pollutants (SLCP) and also indicates that there are a number of other fast actions that can be taken that will have a dramatic impact on global warming without adversely impacting people's quality of life. They include efforts to improve energy efficiency through new building codes, vehicle efficiency standards and increases in renewable energy. The economic viability of clean energy sources like wind and solar are becoming increasingly obvious as they are becoming cheaper to produce and deploy.

The report highlighted the importance of reducing SLCP to quickly reduce climate change causing emissions. In addition to reducing temperature increases, such measures would protect human health and ecosystems.

Numerous recent studies have shown that addressing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including black carbon soot, methane, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons can produce significant near-term climate benefits while also improving human health, food security and energy security.

“Cutting short-lived climate pollutants could cut the current rate of climate change in half by 2050, while preventing more than 2.4 million air-pollution related deaths a year, and avoiding around 35 million tonnes of crop losses annually.” stated Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Cutting SLCPs is one of the best ways to reduce impacts over the next 50 years and beyond.”

The report noted that fast mitigation and co-benefits ‘are particularly high where currently legislated and planned air pollution controls are weak.’

“We have the technologies to cut the short-lived pollutants today,” Zaelke added. “This includes phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol and using other complementary initiatives such as the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, the only global effort focusing on these pollutants.”

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Latest IPCC Report Indicates the World is Headed Towards Unacceptable Temperature Increases

If we continue with business as usual we will see a temperature increase of more than 4ºC above preindustrial temperatures by the end of the century. This is more than double the internationally agreed upon upper temperature limit increase of 2ºC.

According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by the equivalent of ten billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between 2000 and 2010. The report entitled Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, is the third of three Working Group Reports, which make up the IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report on climate change.

The report states that we are on track to see temperatures increase of 4.8C above preindustrial times by the end of the century. With half of all human CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 having occurred in the last forty years, we are rushing headlong into a climate disaster.

To stay within the 2ºC upper threshold limit we must lower GHG emissions by as much as 70 percent compared to 2010 numbers by mid-century and reaching near-zero emissions by 2100.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Video - Review of the Salient Findings in the IPCC AR5 WGll



This brief BBC video summary of the second part of the IPCC AR5 report reviews the overwhelming evidence that humans are experiencing the effects of climate change. The report was released at the end of March and it indicates that some of these impacts are already baked in. However, it warns that if we act soon (mitigate and adapt) we can avoid some of the more catastrophic consequences.

A tiny number of skeptical climate scientists disagree with the virtual consensus and refuted the vast majority of the data calling the second part of the IPCC AR5 report "alarmist." Despite the views of these skeptics, the fact remains that of the 13,950 peer reviewed scientific papers on climate change only 24 question the veracity of anthropogenic global warming.

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Most Recent IPCC Report Omits Green Climate Fund

One of the biggest changes to the most recent installment of the IPCC AR5, concerned the removal of a key number from the executive summary. The missing figure is the annual sum that rich countries have agreed to give poor countries for climate change mitigation. While mention of the $100 billion figure remains in the full 2,500 page report, it was removed from a 48-page executive summary read by the world’s top political leaders.

The most recent IPCC report was released at the end of March, 2014, in Yokohama, Japan. The body of the WGll report points to a World Bank estimate that shows how poor countries need $100 billion a year to try to offset the effects of climate change. At present they are receiving only a tiny fraction of that amount.

Research from the London-based Overseas Development Institute (ODI) showed 2013 climate finance pledges were 71 percent lower than in 2012. This is far from the $100 billion a year rich nations pledged to deliver by 2020 in the Cancun Agreements.

The poorest nations in the world are also those who contributed least to climate change. It is a savage irony that they will be the worst impacted. The exclusion of the $100 billion in the executive summary does not bode well for the future of transfer payments from richer to poorer nations.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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A Scientist who Disagrees with the Conclusions of the AR5 WGll

The findings of the recently released second part of the IPCC AR5 report were disputed by Richard Tol. He is the sole contributor who sought to downplay the adverse economic impacts of climate change.

Although it at first appears farcical, Tol was seriously trying to argue that climate change will be economically beneficial. However, his research was largely discounted as it is the only study that suggested climate change would have a positive impact on gross domestic product.

"Of the 19 studies he surveyed only one shows net positive benefits from warming. And it's the one he wrote," said Bob Ward, an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Unit on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.

It should come as no surprise that the one study suggesting that there would be a positive economic benefit from global warming came from ranking climate skeptic, Richard Tol. He is an economics professor at the University of Sussex and a professor of the economics of climate change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Tol is a member of the academic advisory council for The Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate change skeptic think tank founded by the UK's leading climate denier, Lord Lawson.

Lawson is among those who want the UK government to abandon efforts to combat climate change. He said the he is "unconvinced" that climate change is caused by greenhouse gases. Some have stated that his comments indicate he does not have a "grasp" of climate science. The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir John Beddington accused Lawson of lying in his book on climate change.

In response to Lawson's deception, Beddington wrote: "It is clear from the scientific evidence … that the risks are real and, I believe, it is not going too far to say, potentially catastrophic in the absence of strong global action to reduce emissions."

Tol's support for Lawson's climate denial group speaks to his credibility as a scientist. In a paper published in 2013, Professor Tol stated that "the impact of a century of climate change is roughly equivalent to a year's growth in the global economy," and that "carbon dioxide emissions are probably a negative externality".

Tol was the only one of the 70 authors of the draft U.N. report to pull out of the writing team because, in his words, it was "alarmist" about the threat. Far from exaggerating the impacts of climate change, the IPCC reports have actually been found to be too conservative in its estimates of the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

In the end delegates in Japan voted to approve the second installment of the IPCC AR5 including the chapter on adverse economic impacts of climate change. Tol said the IPCC emphasized the risks of climate change far more than the opportunities to adapt. Tol said climate change was not so bad given the possibility that less severe winters may reduce the number of deaths among the elderly as well as the possibility that a warmer world may improve crop yields in some regions.

Ward suggested the Tol's research, "is patently not supported by the evidence presented." Ward went on to remark on a few of the many shortcomings in Tol's research. He (Tol) "excluded a long list of important impacts, including those relating to recreation, tourism, extreme weather, fisheries, construction, transport, energy supply and morbidity," Ward said.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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