Showing posts with label #climate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #climate. Show all posts

Hottest September on Record Ends the Hottest Summer on Record

In the wake of the hottest month on record (July) and the hottest summer on record, the fall season began with the hottest month of September ever recorded. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, September was not only the hottest month in the 140 years we have kept records, it was also the 417th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 35 years. The four warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 40 years. Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. This year is on track to be another record breaker.

Related
The World is Warming and We are Running Out of Time
More Hot Data Contributes to Existential Concerns
Arctic Heatwaves are a Final Warning
Increasing Ocean Heatwaves Killing Marine Life Including the Climate Canary in the Marine Coalmine

Governments are Acting to Curb the Fires in the Amazon

Governments are responding to the planetary threat posed by the fires in the Amazon. There has been a 79 percent increase in fires in 2019 compared to the same period last year. These fires are a threat to air, water, and wildlife. The Amazon generates one fifth of the world's oxygen and it is the single largest reservoir of fresh water and biodiversity on Earth. The Amazon also regulates climate including heat and precipitation. The ongoing degradation of this region could trigger tipping points from which we will not be able to recover.


Protest


Brazilian protestors are pleading for the world's help to combat the record setting fires in the Amazon. Brazil is home to 60 percent of the the Amazon (the other 40 percent is in Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana).

At the end of August more than 30 protests were held across Brazil demanding action to combat the fires. People held signs that read, "SOS Amazon. Everybody for the Amazon." and "The Amazon belongs to the people". They chanted "Hello, planet! Wake up! Without the Amazon, you can't breathe!"

They are also calling out their federal government with much of their anger being directed at Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Protestors in Rio chanted, "The Amazon stays, out with Bolsonaro". The far right Brazilian leader has been criticized  for the significant uptick in Amazonian deforestation.

Blame Bolsonaro


Opposition politicians, student activists, and Indigenous organizations have called for a congressional investigation into the cause of the fires. Bolsonaro has claimed the fires were set by environmentalists, however, the far more likely cause is slash and burn agriculture to make room for crops like soybeans and cattle ranching. Bolosnaro has emboldened those who are seeking to develop the Amazon.

Bolsonaro's contempt for environmental concerns in the Amazon is abundantly obvious. He has made good on his promise to clear the way for more development. This includes changing environmental rules, defunding government oversight, failing to enforce existing laws and dissolving the Amazon fund's committees. Perhaps the best example of Bolsonaro's disdain for ecological interests involves his appointees.

The populist leader has surrounded himself with climate deniers and conspiracy theorists. His environment minister was convicted of illegally approving a mining project in a conservation area and his foreign minister has described climate change as a "Marxist plot".

Bolsanoro's corruption and deceit have earned him the nickname of "Trump of the Tropics". Trump has tweeted praise for Bolsonaro, saying he is doing a "great job" and "He and his country have the full and complete support of the USA!" Bolsonaro said the tweet pleased him "a lot" and he expressed his "profound appreciation".

G-7 Pledges Assistance


While Trump avoided the climate summit at the recent G-7 meeting in France, other world leaders including the leader of the host nation, prioritized efforts to combat fires in the Amazon. The G-7 announced that they will assist countries in the region with their efforts to fight fire. They indicated their plans to discuss the future of the Amazon including reforestation at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Led by French President Emmanuel Macron, world leaders at the G-7 summit came to an agreement on both technical assistance and financial aid. Macron announced that the G7 had agreed to an immediate fund of at least $20m (£16m) to help Amazon countries fight wildfires and launch a long-term global initiative to protect the rainforest. Macron made the announcement alongside Chile's President Sebastián Piñera. The proposed two-step process will involve collaborating with Amazonian countries to fight fires, protect biodiversity and reforestation. Similar support has also been proposed for African countries which have also been ravaged by wildfires.

Bolsonaro initially rejected the help that was offered by the G-7, but then he recanted due to public pressure. In a tweet, he said his country is being treated as though it "were a colony or no man's land." The Brazilian government said it will accept the financial assistance with the caveat that they administrate the disbursement.

European Aid and Trade


Brazil's new government may be responsible for the fires and deforestation in the Amazon but they will not be easily deterred. Changing the disastrous course of the Bolsonaro government will be difficult. So in addition to carrots, European leaders are also wielding sticks.

Germany and Norway have withdrawn their support for the Amazon fund (Norway has contributed $1.2 billion to the fund and Germany has donated 68 million). European leaders have also indicated that trade deals with Brazil are contingent on protecting the Amazon.

While protecting the Amazon may seem impossible, we have done it before. In 2004, a consorted global efforts succeeded in slowing deforestation in the region. However, to succeed today we will need a far more ambitious global effort.

The Earth's Lungs are Burning and Bolsanaro is to Blame

Wildfires have raged all around the world in 2019 but nowhere is the situation more serious than in the record breaking Amazon fires. There have been almost 80,000 fires in the Amazon this year, more than 30,000 in recent weeks and almost 10,000 since the middle of August. Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, or INPET reports that there have been 74,155 fires in the Amazon in 2019. The massive plumes of smoke from these fires stretch for 1.2 million square miles, cutting across the entire continent of South America and extending out into the South Atlantic Ocean. The Amazon is composed of 2.12 square miles of rainforest that spans Columbia and Peru as well as other countries. However, the majority of the Amazon is located in Brazil.

Bolsanaro is responsible


The far right Brazilian president Jair Bolsanaro is proving to be the leading cause of Amazonian rainforest destruction. In the eight months since Bolsanaro has been in power more than 1,330 square miles of forest have been lost. July saw the single biggest increase in deforestation ever in the Amazon.

"This devastation is directly related to President Bolsonaro’s anti-environmental rhetoric, which erroneously frames forest protections and human rights as impediments to Brazil’s economic growth," Christian Poirier, the program director of Amazon Watch, an environmental non-profit organization, said in a statement. "Farmers and ranchers understand the president’s message as a licence to commit arson with wanton impunity, in order to aggressively expand their operations into the rainforest."

Bosanaro's environmental ministry announced that foreign aid earmarked to fight deforestation would be funneled to cattle and soybean farmers. Like Trump Bolsanaro also makes profoundly ignorant statements like "poop every other day" to address deforestation.

Like Trump Bolsanaro is also at war with those who espouse reason and facts. In his bid to curtail the public's access to information, Bolsanaro fired the head of the INPE, Ricardo Magnus Osório Galvão.To add to the insanity that has earned Bolsanaro the nickname of Trump of the Tropics, the Brazilian president has made the absurd allegation that environmentalists set these fires. The truth is many of these fires are set by farmers who have been emboldened by Bolsanaro. Both Trump and the Brazilian president have earned reputations for their wanton environmental destruction.

Global catastrophe


Wildfires have raged on every continent on Earth in 2019 but there is something terrifyingly unique about the fires in the Amazon.  These fires are darkening the skies and choking Brazilian cities, but the impacts of these fires extend well beyond Brazil's borders. The fires in the Amazon are a threat to local communities, particularly the almost one million Indigenous people who inhabit the rainforests, but these fires are also a threat to life on Earth.

The Amazon is the planet's first line of defense against climate change and it is being razed to make room for carbon intensive farming. The Amazon is the largest rainforest in the world. Amazonian deforestation is responsible for 8 percent of net global emissions.

The Amazon rainforest is one of the Earth's biggest suppliers of oxygen deforestation would reduce the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere by 20 percent. The Amazon contains 25 percent of the carbon dioxide currently sequestered by the world's forests. It is also one of the richest areas of biodiversity on Earth.

For these reasons the Amazon fires have been referred to in ominous headlines. NBC news proclaimed, "Amazon wildfires could be 'game over' for climate change fight". The Economist called it a "forest apocalypse", Futurism referred to "Hell World" and Business Insider cited a "doomsday scenerio". The Washington Post reports the Amazonian rainforests are "under threat as never before".

Devastating feedback loops


There are a number of feedback loops that can trigger tipping points from which we may not be able to recover. One such feedback loop is the one between wildfires and climate change.  

In a climate change induced feedback loop record breaking heat record breaking wildfires go together. Fires are caused by warming temperatures which are caused by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. These fires in turn emit C02 which further exacerbates climate change.

According to a study published in Nature, warming temperatures could prevent trees from emitting oxygen and they could start emitting carbon instead.

The already devastating effects could get far worse. Approximately 20 percent or 300,000 square miles of Amazon rainforest in Brazil has been cut down. If we lose another 20 percent this could trigger an unstoppable feedback loop called "dieback" which could decimate the rainforest and turn the entire area into a savanna. This would exacerbate climate change by releasing 140 billion tons of stored carbon into the atmosphere. It would also mean an end to the world's most important carbon sink.

As reported in The Intercept, "losing another fifth of Brazil’s rainforest will trigger the feedback loop known as dieback, in which the forest begins to dry out and burn in a cascading system collapse… This would release a doomsday bomb of stored carbon, disappear the cloud vapor that consumes the sun’s radiation before it can be absorbed as heat, and shrivel the rivers in the basin and in the sky."

In a post for The Conversation, researchers said this process could also increase the number of fires. "Losing 20% of Brazil's rainforest could result in such a feedback loop, which would dry trees, leaving them unable to absorb as much carbon and much more flammable and likely to spread fires."

Brazilian environmental scientist Carlos Nobre is quoted by the Washington Post as saying: "The more the forest becomes degraded, the more the forest will become vulnerable to forest fires."

Poirier, summarized the situation when he said:  "The unprecedented fires ravaging the Amazon are an international tragedy and a dangerous contribution to climate chaos."

Worsening Deadly Heatwaves in India

One of India's longest and most intense heatwaves has killed at least one hundred people and on July 17th at least 100 more died due to monsoon flooding and mudslides. The pre-monsoon heatwave lasted for more than a month and it was compounded by severe drought that has caused major water shortages. At its worst temperatures exceeded 50°C.

In April, central and northwestern India were suffering from a heatwave that was 6°C above the average. At the beginning of June Delhi hit temperatures of 48°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in that city for that month. The temperatures in Churu, set a new Indian record as they climbed above 50°C and helped to precipitate water shortages. The 9 million residents in the city of Chennai also faced water shortages. Some villages went without water for days. Approximately 40 percent of India has endured drought conditions in 2019.

Droughts are becoming more frequent and they are commonly being followed by sudden storms and floods. There have been radical changes to rainfall patterns in India over the course of the last ten years.

The situation in India is dire and getting worse. This has prompted questions about whether some parts of India will soon be incapable of supporting life.

An CNN article by Shekhar Chandra, a Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that the worsening heat will cause a humanitarian crisis as "large parts of the country potentially become too hot to be inhabitable".

Even if we do what we must to reduce emissions and minimize the impact of global warming, parts of India may still be uninhabitable as a certain amount of warming is baked into the system.

"Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures, parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability," Chandra said.

The rate at which warming is increasing in India is troubling. Chandra reports that in 2010 there were 21 official heatwaves across India, in 2018 there were 484. This represents a 23 fold increase in less than a decade.

According to AK Sahai and Sushmita Joseph, of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the situation is destined to get worse as heatwaves are expected to engulf the whole of India.

Heat Waves and the Climate Crisis

The climate crisis is here and its hot. If you think things are bad today they will get a lot worse if we continue with business as usual. Heatwaves are being amplified by a rise in global temperatures. They are already becoming more frequent and severe and they will only get worse if we fail to act. We have amassed a vast store of data that proves conclusively that the world is getting warmer. Heatwaves are 4 degrees Celsius hotter than they were a century ago and the heatwaves hitting Europe are more frequent and more severe.

On average the 20 warmest years since 1880 have all been within the past 22 years. The years 2015-2018 make up the top four, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This was a record breaking Spring and early summer in Canada. Globally, last month was the hottest month of June in recorded history and Europe suffered through a record breaking heatwave at end of June.

Dr Friederike Otto, of the University of Oxford, said: "This is a strong reminder again that climate change is happening here and now. It is not a problem for our kids only."

As reported by the Guardian, attribution studies suggest heat waves are much more likely and severe due to climate change. "There have been more than 230 attribution studies to date around the world and these have found that 95% of heatwaves were made more more likely or worse by climate change. For droughts, 65% were definitely affected climate change, while the figure for floods was 57%."

Global heat records are being set five times as often today as they would in a stable climate. "Heat waves are on the rise," Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. "This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and gas," Rahmstorf, told the Associated Press.

In about three decades, London's climate will feel a lot like Barcelona's, including severe droughts, Madrid will feel more like Marrakesh, Morocco; Seattle will feel like San Francisco; and New York will feel like Virginia Beach, Virginia. These predictions come from a study that estimated 77 percent. of cities around the world will see their climate conditions change drastically.

Scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: "If the observed trend in heatwaves continues, [even] at the Paris goal of 2C of warming a heatwave like this will be the norm in June. Both observations and models show a strong trend towards stronger heatwaves. However, the observed trend is stronger than the modeled one, and we do not yet know why." We have already seen warming of 1 degree Celsius.

Europe's heatwave at the end of June 2019 was caused by a mass of hot air coming from the Sahara Desert and as with the extreme heat recorded in Canada an anomalous jet stream is being implicated.

The increasing prevalence and severity is heat waves is a direct corollary of climate change. Studies predict that deadly heat waves are going to become far more common and far more serious than they are today. As reported by NBC News, Steve Vavrus, a senior scientist at the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison said that although the situation is perilous there is still time to do something about it.

"Everywhere is vulnerable and we’re starting to load the dice more with slow-moving and meandering jet stream patterns," Vavrus said. "Extreme weather events are becoming the new normal and they are lasting longer than they have in the past."

Vavrus explained that reducing the world’s carbon emissions would slow global warming and return the jet stream to its more typical speed and pattern. In the absence of consorted action to reduce emissions, extreme weather like heat waves may prove to be among the biggest problems we face in the coming decades.

Related
Warming Temperatures are an Urgent Warning
The Warming Temperature Trend Continues Despite Trump
Decades of Hot Data: The Harbingers of an Impending Climate Catastrophe

What is Causing Europe's Heatwaves?

The recent heatwave in Europe included the hottest day ever in France. The new hottest single day temperature in France is now 45.9C (114.6F). Germany, Poland and Czech Republic also set records at the end of June. Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Italy also experienced heat waves. Europe's intense heat waves and record setting temperatures are noteworthy because we can now say with a degree of confidence that this warming is at least five times more likely due to global warming. Europe's five hottest summers since 1500 have all been in this Century.

Using data from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European satellite agency said the average temperatures on the continent at the end of June were more than 2C above normal. Temperatures were 6-10C above normal over most of France, Germany and northern Spain.

While linking a single event to global warming is complicated, the World Weather Attribution group reports that average temperatures in France between 26-28 June were very likely happening as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

"We knew June was hot in Europe, but this study shows that temperature records haven’t just been broken. They have been obliterated," University of Reading's Professor Hannah Cloke, said. "This is the hottest June on record in Europe by a country mile, and the warmest June we have ever seen globally."

Heatwaves cause a host of problems. In parts of France water restrictions were imposed and Paris closed schools and postponed exams. Combustion engine vehicles were prevented from entering the city to decrease smog and fire hydrants were opened to help people cool down.

Health Minister Agnès Buzyn warned that "everyone is at risk" and France's weather service issued an unprecedented red alert for four areas with the rest of the country on orange alert. The Italian ministry of health has reported emergency levels of heat in 16 cities.

In Germany, the extreme heat caused highway surfaces to start to melt and all across Europe there has been a spike in electricity consumption as people turn on their fans and their air conditioners. Poland  set two records, one for high temperatures and one for energy consumption.

Heatwaves can be also be both expensive and deadly. The 2003 heatwave caused financial losses of almost $15 billion and killed over 30,000 people in Europe.

Europe's heatwave at the end of June 2019 was caused by a mass of hot air coming from the Sahara Desert. As with the extreme heat recorded in Canada an anomalous jet stream is being blamed.

"Although this was exceptional, we are likely to see more of these events in the future due to climate change," Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of C3S said.

Record Breaking Heat in the Great White North

Image credit: The Weather Channel
We have seen heat records broken across Canada in the first half of 2019. Extreme heat has been present from the west coast to the east coast and the far north. The start of spring 2019 smashed 79 Canadian heat records including an all time record for Yoho Lake in the Northwest Territories. Environment Canada pointed to anomalies in the jet stream and said this kind of widespread heat in March hasn’t been seen in a quarter century.

In June Victoria shattered a 121-year-old heat record and Kelowna broke a 145-year-old temperature record in BC. All together Surging temperatures broke a total of 20 heat records in southern BC.

In July most of Eastern Canada was suffering from extreme heat and in the Maritimes this heat wave broke records. Moncton, Fredericton and Halifax all broke records. PEI also smashed a heat record. Even Nunavut, the world's most northerly community, is experiencing a record-breaking heat wave.

As reported by CBC, records have been falling by large margins. "That's what we're seeing more often," said David Phillips, Environment Canada's chief climatologist. "It's not just half a degree or a 10th of a millimeter. It's like hitting a ball out of the ballpark. It is so different than what the previous record was...It's really quite spectacular, This is unprecedented." Phillips said the models predict that there is more to come. More is to come.

Phillips also suggests the record heat may be related to anomalies in the jet stream. "With temperatures you've never seen before, you can't dismiss it as not having a climate change component," Philips said. Although individual weather recordings should not be confused with climate, decades of hot data are making an irrefutable case for a warming world.

The Ocean / Climate Nexus

Our oceans provide two-thirds of the planet's atmospheric oxygen, absorb more than 90 percent of the Earth's excess heat energy and more than a quarter of the globe's anthropogenic carbon emissions. Warmer and more acidic oceans are decimating marine ecosystems, killing coral, kelp, shellfish starfish and plankton. Warmer oceans also have adverse implications for global weather including more intense storms.

Balmy sea-surface temperatures expedite terrestrial warming and reduce the time we have to reign in climate change causing greenhouse gas emissions. If we do not stop spewing carbon and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere we are on track to see anywhere from five to seven degrees of warming in the coming decades.

Warmer seas mean less ice and this can further contribute to the warming trend. According to National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the monthly June ice extent over the last 20 years shows a decline of 4.08 percent per decade. The average extent for June 2019 was the second lowest in the satellite record. One of the implications of melting sea ice is a weakened jet stream which wreaks havoc with the weather in much of the world.

One of the most troubling corrolaries of warmer seas involves the breakdown of the ocean food chain.  Plankton, the basis of the oceans food chain, is dying and this is causing low oxygen dead zones where nothing can survive.

According to research published in the journal Bulletin of Mathematical Biology from the University of Leicester in the UK, rising ocean temperatures is causing massive reductions in plankton populations. Since plankton is responsible for two-thirds of atmospheric oxygen, this could cause the Earth’s oxygen levels to fall dramatically, and this in turn could kill massive numbers of people and animals.

The policy implications are clear, governments need to take unprecedented action to keep ocean temperatures as low as possible.

More Hot Data Contributes to Existential Concerns

The heat records being set around the globe foreshadow a world where new record setting high temperatures are commonplace. According to the EU‘s satellite agency, last month was the hottest June ever recorded.

Europe has been suffering through excruciating heat waves and countries including France have set all time heat records exceeding 45C. In parts of Asia including Kuwait and India temperatures are exceeding 50 Celsius.

While seasonal temperature spikes are not evidence of global warming, they are part of a clear and unmistakable trend. There have been a succession of hot months in 2019 including the Earth's fourth-hottest May, and the second-hottest April and March. February's global average temperature was the fifth hottest on record and January was the third hottest.

In the period between December 2018 and February 2019 there was record heat in much of Australia, parts of northeastern Brazil, the Southern Ocean, East China and the Barents Seas and southeastern Pacific Ocean. It is not just that we have seen hot temperatures in 2019, this is part of a decades long warming trend.

The last time be saw monthly temperatures that fell below the mean was February 1985. Decades of hot data including 35 years or more than 410 months of above average temperatures makes the warming trend impossible to refute. We are breaking temperature records with increasing regularity with the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 1998.

Warmer weather also causes more precipitation, more storms and more flooding. The United States has had to deal with some intense flooding in 2019. We have seen protracted floods in the Midwest, and more recently flash flooding in Washington and Louisiana. Heatwaves have even grounded planes, buckled train tracks, and led to school closures.

It is not accurate to say that this is the new normal as it will likely get worse. According to new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change we can expect to see more temperature records being broken in fact we can expect a succession of record breaking heatwaves in most of the world.

These researchers also make it clear that these temperature increases are directly tied to rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity. They also indicate that these higher temperatures make air pollution worse and make water more scarce leading to agricultural failures, malnutrition and starvation.

The scientists conclude that their modeling predicts high monthly mean temperature records will be set in 58 percent of the world every year. The highest monthly mean temperature increases will occur in developing countries and small island states.  Low lying countries like the Marshall Islands are already facing existential threats as they are fighting to stay above the waves having faced repeated inundations in 2019.

Climate change is is contributing to species extinction and represents a significant threat to human life. Extreme heat fuels both drought and wildfires but heatwaves are the most deadly form of extreme weather and this summer's heatwaves are no exception. People have succumbed to heat stroke, breathing issues, heart attacks, and kidney problems. According to conservative estimates from the W.H.O. a quarter of a million people are expected to die annually between 2030 and 2050 due to climate change.

Current temperatures show a 1.3 C global average temperature increase. The upper threshold limit agreed to in the Paris Climate Accord is between 1.5C and 2C. Other studies show that even if we keep temperatures from rising beyond 2C. more than a billion people will be forced to relocate and at least two billion more will suffer from food and water scarcity. At 3C. coastal cities would be inundated and as much as 90 percent of humanity could die.

Related
Warming Temperatures are an Urgent Warning
The Warming Temperature Trend Continues Despite Trump
Decades of Hot Data: The Harbingers of an Impending Climate Catastrophe
Slowing Emissions to Beat the Heat

The Benefits of Climate Action Far Outweigh the Costs

Despite problems with existing economic models and resistance from political and business leaderships the logic of climate action is irrefutable. The merits of climate action is born out by a slew of studies and rudimentary math. 

When we factor the costs of environmental damage it is difficult to come up with an assessment that does not convincingly demonstrate the value of climate action over business as usual. Here are three separate assessments that come to the same fundamental conclusion.

In a 2018 Vox article David Roberts concludes, "these days, it has gotten almost impossible to make sustainability look like a bad deal." He points to the fact that as the cost of business as usual keep rising, the costs of sustainable alternatives keep declining.

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets


In a 2018 Guardian article Damian Carrington says that climate action will save the world $30 trillion in damages which is far more than the costs of cutting carbon emissions. Citing an article published in Nature Carrington writes, "Data from the last 50 years shows clearly that when temperatures rise, GDP and other economic measures fall in most nations, due to impacts on factors including labour productivity, agricultural output and health."

"By the end of the century, we find the world will be about 3% wealthier if we actually achieve the 1.5C target relative to 2C target," said Marshall Burke, assistant professor at Stanford University in the US, who led the new work. "In dollar terms, this represents about $30tn in cumulative benefits...The estimated cost of meeting the 1.5C target is about $0.5tn over the next 30 years," he said: "So our evidence suggest the benefits of meeting the targets vastly outweigh the costs...We also calculated what’s going to be the additional economic cost if we hit 3C instead of 2C. This will cost the globe an additional 5-10% of GDP, relative to 2C; that is tens of trillions of dollars. These are very large numbers," Marshall said.

The actual costs are likely to be much higher as study did not include the costs of climate change that are hard to quantify.

Cambridge University’s Judge Business School


In a 2015 Think Progress article Joe Romm wrote that climate action avoids over $400 Trillion in damages. Romm was citing an analysis from Cambridge University’s Judge Business School. The author, Chris Hope, an expert on the economics of climate change, told Romm that the "corresponding value for a low emissions scenario is about $80 trillion." The cost of melting permafrost alone represents $43 trillion in damages. "So climate action remains a figurative no brainer," Romm said "and climate inaction remains a literal no-brainer."

Although it may seem obvious, straight forward math is confounded by disinformation from those with dirty energy agendas and misinformation from short term thinkers. However, even those with tiny time horizons will find that there are short and medium term savings that come with climate action.

New Climate Economy Report


Roberts said a global shift to sustainability would save us $26 trillion by 2030. He cites the 2018 New Climate Economy Report that says, "We can have growth that is strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive." The report looked at energy, cities, food/land use, water, and industry/innovation/transportation and indicated that almost $90 trillion will be invested in infrastructure in the next decade.

"[S]hifting to sustainable technologies and techniques would save trillions of dollars through 2030 in increased productivity, innovation, and reduced health costs. Sustainability costs less," Roberts wrote about the report. "Policymakers worldwide need to price carbon, roll back fossil fuel subsidies (and other policies that impede sustainability), invest in sustainable infrastructure, harness the private sector, and protect vulnerable communities." 

The report also indicates that current models and projections underplay the benefits of transitioning to a sustainable low carbon economy. "Current economic models are deeply inadequate in capturing the opportunities of such a transformational shift, or the grave dangers of climate inaction," the report states. "We need a new class of economic models that can capture the powerful dynamics at play, including transformative technological advances, preservation of essential natural capital, and the full health benefits of cleaner air and a safer climate, including the containment of pandemic diseases."

We have the required solutions but we need the will to enact policy to scale them up.  In addition to problems with our economic models we are also contending with a failure of leadership. "The barrier — now, as always... is sufficient political and business leadership," the report said.


Related
Economic Assessments Overwhelmingly Support Climate Action
Economic Arguments as a Pretext to Torpedo Climate Action
Does Business Need Government to Incentivize the Green Economy?
The Energy Efficiency Opportunity and the Case for Government Leadership
Climate Crisis Economics: A Serious Threat and a Real Opportunity
We Cannot Afford to Deny the Cost of Climate Change

A Realist Makes the Case for Cassandra

Is this the best of times or the worst of times? Charles Dickens historical novel, A Tale of Two Cities begins with the words, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair."

In a recent article Stephen Martin Walt assesses our times and weighs the merits of optimistic assessments alongside more apocalyptic interpretations. He asks: "Who’s right: Cassandra or Dr. Pangloss? Are we on the brink of serious trouble, as Cassandra of Greek myth prophesied, or is all for the best 'in this best of all possible worlds,'  as the fictional Pangloss insisted in Voltaire’s Candide?"

Walt is an American professor of international affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He belongs to the realist school of international relations. He has made important contributions to the theory of defensive neorealism and he has authored the balance of threat theory.

For those who are interested in a cogent and sound analysis Walt offers a review that is well worth the read. He lays out the facts in a way that transcends the usual polemics. In the May 20th Foreign Policy article Walt leads with a discussion of climate change which he describes as the "single most vexing political test humankind has ever faced." Here is an unabridged excerpt of his comments on the climate crisis from the article.

"We haven’t known about man-made climate change for very long, but alarming evidence of its negative consequences continues to accumulate. Moreover, the pace and extent of change appears to be closer to the worst-case end of the spectrum. We are virtually certain to see a rise of more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit in atmospheric temperature in the next 20 years, for example, and a major study by the United Nations scientific panel on climate change estimates that a rise of that magnitude would cause roughly $54 trillion (!) worth of damage.

But the troubling part is how tepid the response has been. A well-funded army of people rejecting mainstream climate science tried first to convince us the problem simply didn’t exist, and they have worked to block meaningful actions to address it. At the global level, profligate energy users mostly tried to make sure that somebody else got stuck with the costs of mitigation. When the president of the United States refuses to accept that climate change is even occurring and wants to resurrect coal (the dirtiest of all fossil fuels), you know we’re in trouble. And my guess—see here—is that adapting to this problem is going to affect politics and society in ways we’ve barely begun to imagine.

I’m not saying dealing with this challenge is easy. It’s always hard to get people to make sacrifices today for the sake of future generations, and there are big cross-generational and cross-national equity issues involved. In fact, I believe developing an effective global response to atmospheric warming is the single most vexing political test humankind has ever faced. And so far, we’re flunking it, and placing whole societies in risk. Boy, I hope I’m wrong."

Training - Certified Sustainability (CSR) Practitioner Program, Advanced Edition

This event will take place on June, 06 - 07 2019 in New York City. The 2019 Sustainability Practitioner Certification Program: Sustainability Strategy and Circular Economy will give you the insights you need to meet the serious challenges we face. This two-day training offered by CSE aims to give you all the latest practical tools and resources required to implement or upscale corporate sustainability in order to drive your initiatives to the next level by generating value and creating effective strategies. Executives from Fortune 500 companies, local governments and academia have trusted CSE and participated in our advanced training to become Certified Sustainability (CSR) Practitioners and earn a unique recognition in the Sustainability and CSR field. Click here to see the training agenda.

Key Challenges:
  • The challenge of Integrating SDGs into the current Sustainability Plan
  • New trends in Sustainability and how to gain a competitive advantage
  • How to maximize stakeholder engagement
  • How to influence C-Suite Executives and get most of their support into the Sustainability Plan
  • The role of Investors and how to maximize your corporate performance in ESG ratings

Benefits of the Advanced Edition, 2019 Sustainability Practitioner Program in NYC:
  • Earn the globally recognized Sustainability (CSR)-P Certification and become a qualified Sustainability Professional
  • Access CSE business network (leaders from Fortune 500 Companies and Government Representatives)
  • Develop a two-year sustainability plan

Places are limited. Click here to register.

Climate Change Behind the Worst Flooding Ever in Quebec

Image credit: Radio-Canada / Ivanoh Demers
Quebec has experienced the worst flooding in the recorded history of the province and climate change played a role. More than 10,000 people have been forced from their homes. On the island of Montreal 94 residences were flooded, 49 were surrounded by water and 55 were evacuated. In nearby Ste-Marthe-sur-le-Lac 6,000 people were forced to evacuate after a dike was breached last weekend. The flooding left more than one third of the homes in the small town under water.

On April 25th, 50 people were forced from their homes downriver of the Bell Falls dam on the Rouge River due to concerns that the dam could collapse. At least 1,000 Quebercers are currently in the care of the Red Cross. About 100 volunteers and more than 30 staff are providing support in 11 municipalities and are monitoring the needs of 22 other communities. Flooding has also impacted hundreds of people in New Bruswick and Ontario.

People whose homes were inundated must decide whether or not they want to rebuild in an area that has seen two once in a hundred years floods in the span of three years. Only two years ago another once in a hundred years flood ravaged parts of southern Quebec. 

The floods were caused by heavy rains and melt-water but as reported by the Guardian, climate change played a role. Laura Coristine, a biologist at the University of British Columbia said both rapid temperature increases and huge variation in the amount of precipitation are climate change related phenomenon that make catastrophic flooding more common.

There is good reason to believe that these floods will keep getting worse as the climate warms.

The Nature Champions Summit and Canada's Biodiversity Conservation Efforts

The Nature Champions Summit (NCS) will take place on April 24-25, 2019 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The goal of the NCS is to build a high-ambition coalition to advance global nature protection. This event explores nature conservation efforts and focuses on strategies for mitigating biodiversity loss and maintaining crucial carbon stores. It will address on-the-ground solutions to make biodiversity healthier and more resilient. The summit will specifically highlight Indigenous leadership and the role of various levels of government to forge a new biodiversity conservation agenda.

NCS is being convened by Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna. A March 14th, government of Canada press release announcing NCS points to the growing awareness that we need to do more to protect biodiversity. Canada is second largest nation in the world it is also the country with the largest coastline. The nation's vast forests, massive lakes and long rivers are sewn into the fabric of Canada's national identity.  Through legislation and regulation Canada is working to honor its biodiversity conservation treaty commitments, including the Aichi 2020 targets.

NCS will bring together philanthropists, business leaders, non-governmental organizations, United Nations agencies, Indigenous leaders and environment ministers from around the world. Participants will showcase commitments and develop new partnerships for advancing nature protection.

This event is the first in a series of multilateral meetings focused on building momentum towards 2020, when leaders will come together for the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in China. Nature protection will be a central theme of the forthcoming G7 meeting in France.

Key Themes of the NCS

  • Identifying and overcoming barriers to nature protection
  • Indigenous partnerships and incorporating Indigenous wisdom in stewardship activities
  • The intersection of nature, oceans and climate change
  • Innovative financing for nature-based solutions

Carbon storage


Canada's wilderness is not only a place of natural beauty it is also a vast carbon sink. Canadian Carbon storage banks are one of the nation's most significant biodiversity features. Over thousands of years Canadian peatlands, soils, permafrost and trees have stored more than 200 billion tonnes of carbon. This is the equivalent of up to 36 years’ worth of global carbon emissions. The release of sequestered carbon in peatlands and permafrost are serious tipping points that could end any hope of keeping temperatures below the prescribed upper threshold limit of 2.0 Celsius.

Existing strategies in Canada


Protected areas is one of the best strategies we have for conserving biodiversity. In 2013 Environment Canada defined protected areas as, "lands and waters where development and use is restricted by legal or other means for the conservation of nature."

The Alliance for Zero Extinction Sites (AZEs) is a joint NGO initiative that includes 76 members. AZE sites in Canada include efforts to protect the endangered Vancouver Island Marmot (less than 200 left in wild) and the endangered Whooping crane (about 431 left in wild)

Canada is also working on large scale conservation projects that focus on connectivity. This includes the Yukon to Yellowknife (Y to Y) a 1 300 000 km2 stretch of land. Another large transnational conservation project is the Algonquin to Adirondack (A to A)  which encompasesses 93,000 km2 in Ontario, Quebec, and New York. Other connectivity focused conservation projects include the Baja, California to the Bering Sea (B to B) and the Wildlands Network.

Species at risk


Canada's largely intact boreal region supports grizzly bears, wolves and wolverines. Canadian waterways contain healthy populations of salmon and trout and sturgeon. The country is also a temporary home to billions of migrating birds.

However, as in many other parts of the world a wide diversity of species are at risk in Canada. Some of the country’s most iconic animals are under threat. This includes mammals like bison, polar bears and caribou.

Indigenous governments


NCS is focused on the leadership of Indigenous governments and it is being held in partnership with Indigenous Peoples.  In Canada First Nations People play an increasingly important role complimenting science and enhancing Canada's conservation efforts. This is a stewardship vision that balances protection and development. NCS is a reflection of Canada's recognition of the importance of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK).

TEK is defined as, "a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationship of living beings … with one another and with their environment" (Berkes et al. 2000, p.1252).

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), recognizes traditional ecological knowledge and TEK is found in Article 8 (j) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. It is also contained in Canadian legislation including the Fisheries act.

Canadian biodiversity preservation legislation

 

  • Canadian Wildlife Act (1985)
  • Plant Protection Act (1990)
  • Health of Animals act (1990)
  • Wild Animal and Plant Protection and Regulation of International and Interprovincial Trade Act (WAPPRIITA; 1992)
  • Migratory Bird Convention Act (1994)
  • National Marine Conservation Areas Act (2002)
  • Fisheries act (1985, 2012, 2018)
  • National Parks Act (2000)
  • Species at Risk Act (SARA, 2002) 
  • Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (2012)

 

International biodiversity treaties that Canada is committed to

 

  • International Plant Protection Convention (1952)
  • International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (2004)
  • Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (1975)
  • CITIES: Convention on the International Trade of Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Fora (1975)
  • CBD: Convention on Biological Diversity (1992)
  • NA Migratory Bird Treaty (1916)
  • North American Bird Conservation Initiative (1998)

 

Canada's achievements


Through a combination of easements, covenants, servitudes, funding programs, as well as multilateral and bilateral efforts Canada has made progress in its efforts to protect land and conserve species. Canada has 39 national parks, 8 reserves, and 4 marine conservation areas. Under Ramsar Convention on Wetlands  Canada has protected 37 Wetlands of International Importance, comprising around 13 million ha, which is second in area only to Bolivia.

The Canadian federal government has invested over $1.3 billion over five years in biodiversity protection. Canada has made progress towards the Aichi 2020 Targets through its Pathway to Target 1 efforts. Thus far Canada has protected 7.75 percent of it's marine habitat which is close to the 10 percent Aichi target and 11 percent of terrestrial objectives. However, this is 6 points below the Aichi target of 17 percent.

Canada will nearly double protected areas by 2020 in order to reach the goals it is committed to under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Reaching that goal will be cause for celebration and NCS is a helpful part of the process.