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Scientist Warn Time is Running Out to Avert a Climate Catastrophe

December 03, 2012 Add Comment Edit

It is still possible to stave off the worst effects of climate change but the window of opportunity is rapidly getting smaller. There have been a spate of reports just ahead of COP 18 in Doha that conclusively make the point that we must act now to reduce CO2 and other GHGs.

As reported in the Huffington Post, "It is still possible to avoid 2-degree warming, and arguing it is too late could very easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Michael E. Mann, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. "That having been said, the real issue is whether or not we have the political will."

However, a moderate effort will not be sufficient. The scope of the required actions is immense. In the absence of widespread popular support we have no reason to believe that governments will muster the political will necessary to make the required changes.

Jonathan Koomey, a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University, and the co-author of the first comprehensive analysis of the 2-degree limit back in 1989, has a more optimistic take.

"We tend to underestimate the possibility for change," Koomey said "At certain times, when people perceive a crisis, things can change very, very rapidly."

No matter how difficult it may seem Koomey believes that we can meet the challenge. He cites the example of the federal order that precipitated the herculean rise of America's industrial might in World War II. Still, he added, "We have to separate the lessons that this way of thinking can teach us and the realities of politics and interest groups. Urgent action is required."

"It would take an incredible effort, but that's what we're trying to spur," said leading climate activist Bill McKibben. "Given the damage that 1 degree is doing, we're already at 'dire. We dearly don't want to see what 2 degrees looks like, much less 3."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Banks Warning: We Need to Act Now on Climate Change (Video)

December 01, 2012 Add Comment Edit

The World Bank has released a report which is a sobering look at what an increase of 4 degree Celsius will look like. This study addresses the implications for disaster management and food supply and points out that the worst impacts will be on the world's poorest people. However, the report points out that we can do something about it, but the window is narrow and we have to take action now.

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NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

November 30, 2012 Add Comment Edit

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contributed to an alarming report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA provided their own set of data arrived at independently and published in their Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).

"The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence supplied by long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence supplied by long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index."

"Increases in the abundance of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are largely the result of human activity and are largely responsible for the observed increases in global temperature [IPCC 2007]. However, climate projections have model uncertainties that overwhelm the uncertainties in greenhouse gas measurements. We present here an index that is directly proportional to the direct warming influence (also know as climate forcing) supplied from these gases. Because it is based on the amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this index contains relatively little uncertainty"

For more information click here.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning

November 29, 2012 Add Comment Edit

In November, the World Meteorological Association's (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin stated that global CO2 levels are the highest they have ever been in human history, reaching 391 parts per million. Scientists warn that 350 parts per million is the upper limit for a a stable planet.

These levels of CO2 have been steadily rising at about 2 parts per million every year for the past decade. Current measurements of atmospheric carbon are 40% higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organization, said that since the dawn of industrialization in 1750, humans have emitted 375 billion tonnes, of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The WMO indicates that future emissions will make the situation far worse.

According to WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud,"These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on earth."

Oceans have already absorbed half of the atmospheric carbon, but this is causing the oceans to become more acidic and at a certain point they will not be able to absorb any more CO2.

“We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs,” said Jarraud. “These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on Earth.” he said.

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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World Bank Climate Change Warning

November 28, 2012 Add Comment Edit

The World Bank has issued a report suggesting that the climate could warm a full 4 degrees by the end of the century. What is most troubling about this study is the fact that we may not be able to avert this temperature increase even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges. Sadly, most countries are far from fulfilling even these modest pledges.

The report is titled, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided. The widely agreed upon goal is to keep temperatures from increasing no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This upper safe limit is considered to be the best way of reducing the likelihood of sea levels, acidic oceans, freshwater scarcity, diminished agricultural yields, searing heat waves, grinding droughts and other extreme weather.

However there are some prominent scientists who have argued that even 2 degrees of warming would be disastrous. We have already seen an increase of about 0.8 degrees, and even if all pollution were arrested today, there are sufficient levels of GHGs in the atmosphere to further raise temperatures by another 0.8 degrees.

"Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim in a statement accompanying the report. "Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest," he said.

We need to appreciate that the climate problems we face are not subject to linear progressions. The so called non-linear outcomes will push us towards tipping points much faster. As noted by the World Bank report:

"As global warming approaches and exceeds 2-degrees Celsius, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents."

© 2012, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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UNEP Warning: We are on the Brink of a Climate Catastrophe

November 28, 2012 Add Comment Edit

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2012, released Nov. 21, indicates that there is a massive gulf between what governments have pledged in terms of GHG emissions and what they are actually doing. To stave off a temperature increase of more than 2°C, nations have pledged to reduce their emissions a total of 44 gigatonnes by 2020. However, the UNEP report indicates that if we stay on our current trajectory we are likely to see temperature increases of 3-5 °C which risks a climate catastrophe.

According to UNEP, the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is actually being done is 8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is 2 Gt higher than last year’s assessment.

“UNEP’s assessment confirms that the world is standing on the brink,” says Samantha Smith, head of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative.

“The solutions are all in our grasp—energy efficiency, clean renewable energy, smarter transport systems, action to protect our forests and a move to more sustainable agriculture. By far the biggest barrier to delivering these is the collective and individual failure of political will. Unless we act urgently, future generations will not forgive us,” Smith says.

Immediate actions to close the gap:

Governments must agree clear processes to increase ambition further before 2020, in the context of a promised new international agreement to be struck in 2015.
Governments must agree on robust common accounting rules for greenhouse gas emissions, and also agree to retire the large amounts of surplus “hot air” emission credits currently swilling around in the system.
Countries, including European countries, should also move to the top end of their emission pledges for 2020, and come forward with credible plans for meeting or exceeding them.
Governments must agree strong reforms to carbon market mechanisms to prevent double counting of offset credits and to rule out offsets that do not need to clear net emission reductions.
UNEP clearly shows that it is still possible to act in a way that can bring temperature increases within the two degree threshold, however we will need to act fast.