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Event - Earth Science & Climate Change (Earth Science-2015)

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The 4th International Conference on Earth Science & Climate Change (Earth Science-2015) will take place on June 15-17, 2015, in Alicante, Spain. The main theme of the conference is: An Insight into the Recent Advancements in Geosciences and Climate Change Control. This OMICS Group event aims to promulgate knowledge and facilitate the sharing of new ideas amongst the professionals, industrialists and students from research areas of Earth Science and Climate Change.

The focus will be on Earth Science, Atmospheric Change, Climatology, Meteorology, Environmental Issues, Global Warming, Geotechnical engineering, remote sensing.

Earth provides resources and the exact conditions to make life possible. However, with the advent of technology and industrialization, the Earth's resources are being pushed to the brink of depletion. Non-sustainable industrial practices are not only endangering the supply of the Earth's natural resources, but are also putting burden on life itself by bringing about pollution and climate change. The major role of earth science scholars is to examine the delicate balance between the Earth's resources and the growing demands of industrialization. Through research and development, earth scientists have the power to preserve the planet's different resource domains by providing expert opinion and information about the forces which make life possible on Earth.

In the atmosphere, there are several things or qualities of the atmosphere which will be measured. Rain, which might be observed or seen anywhere and anytime, was one of the primary ones to be measured historically. Many of the large-scale environmental changes affected by human activities are mediated through the chemistry of the environment. Key changes include the increases in the concentration of tropospheric oxidants (including Natural Calamities), global spread of air pollution, and global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion.

A geotechnical engineer then determines and designs the type of foundations, earthworks, and/or pavement sub grades essential for the intended man-made structures to be built. Remote sensing makes it likely to collect data on dangerous or inaccessible areas. Remote sensing also replaces expensive and slow data collection on the ground, ensuring in the process that areas or objects are not disturbed. Petrology uses the classical fields of mineralogy, petrography, optical mineralogy, and chemical analyses to explain the composition and texture of rocks.

CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Geosciences and Geology
Meteorology
Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences
Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Technologies and Applications of Earth Science
Global Warming and Environmental Change
Environmental and Marine Sciences
Environmental Issues and Hazards
Environmental Management
Effect of Climate Change on Ecosystem

To register click here.

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We are Running out of Time to Avert a Climate Catastrophe (PwC Report)

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PricewaterhousCoopers (PwC) is hardly known for hyperbole, but their latest report warns of catastrophe if we fail to reign in carbon emissions. The report says that every passing year we are getting further away from averting a climate disaster.

PwC's “Low Carbon Economy Index,” chronicles our ongoing failure to act on the climate crisis. They refer to an “unmistakable trend” of growing emissions and a warming world. The report states that we have failed to do what we must to keep temperatures below the internationally agreed upon upper threshold limit of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

The consequences of failing to act include food security threats, coastal inundation, extreme weather events, ecosystem shifts, and widespread species extinction.

The PwC report clearly states that, “the gap between what we are doing and what we need to do has again grown, for the sixth year running.”

If we continue on our current trajectory we will see temperature increases of 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

To succeed in keeping temperatures within manageable limits the global economy needs to “decarbonize” by 6.2 percent every year until the end of the century.

The report singles out countries that are leading carbon emissions per unit of GDP. They include United States, Germany, and India who are still adding carbon intensity, year-on-year. The report further states that we are running out of time to avert a climate catastrophe.

"The timeline is also unforgiving. The [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] and others have estimated that global emissions will need to peak around 2020 to meet a 2°C [3.6 degrees F] budget,” the report says. “This means that emissions from the developed economies need to be consistently falling, and emissions from major developing countries will also have to start declining from 2020 onwards.”

If we are to keep temperatures within acceptable limits, G20 nations will need to cut their annual energy-related emissions by one-third by 2030, and by just over half by 2050.

This report adds to the building pressure to come up with a global agreement on climate change by 2015.

To read the report click here (PDF),

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The Theory of Natural Warming is Dead

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Recent studies have put the final nails into the coffin of natural warming theories. While Republicans and other conservatives hold on to natural warming theories the way NRA members cling to their guns, recent science has utterly dispelled the viability of this myth.

While it is impossible to refute the observation that the earth has warmed since 1880, it is not uncommon to hear Republicans say that while global temperatures may be warming, it is not attributable to human activity.

An April analysis published in the journal Climate Dynamics, reviews temperature data since 1500 and concludes that the global warming we have seen since the dawn of the industrial era cannot be attributed to natural warming.

This research was conducted by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy, and rules out the hypothesis that warming over the past century is due to natural fluctuations.

“This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy said. “Their two most convincing arguments—that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong—are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”

Lovejoy's conclusions come with confidence levels that exceed 99 percent certainty. The odds of warming being caused by natural fluctuations are less than one in a thousand.

Lovejoy's new study is based on statistical methodology that uses multi-proxy climate reconstructions as well as fluctuation-analysis techniques from nonlinear geophysics. Lovejoy’s findings effectively complement other studies including those that use computer modeling. His findings are also corroborated by the most recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and the Third US National Climate Assessment.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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New Authoritative Report Chronicles US Climate Change

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The most comprehensive US climate report to date indicates that the changing climate is a national problem that is already adversely impacting key sectors of the economy.

On May 6th, 2014, the Obama Administration released the Third US National Climate Assessment. The 841-page report documents more frequent and intense extreme weather events, (heat, downpours, floods, droughts), wildfires, melting ice, rising sea levels, ocean acidification and water scarcity. These impacts are already happening and they are expected to get far worse if we continue with business as usual.

This three-year public and peer reviewed research was conducted by a team of over 300 climate scientists and experts along with input from over 13 federal science agencies. The data was drawn from a wide range of sources including satellites, weather balloons and buoys. The report is a key part of the President's Climate Action Plan.

While the science is clear and irrefutable, the American people are divided. Led by misinformation campaigns from the fossil fuel industry and their Republican minions, huge swaths of Americans continue to doubt the veracity of anthropogenic climate change.

Republicans and other climate deniers called the report another “scare tactic” by the administration. They continue to argue against the science or for the primacy of the economy over action to mitigate climate change. They completely ignore the fact that the economy will be utterly ravaged by runaway climate change.

The report along with the issue of climate change itself is sure to be a prominent campaign issue in the 2014 midterms.

To read the report click here.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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The Clock Keeps Ticking as People Continue to Ignore Scientific Warnings about Climate Change

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Humans are the cause of climate change and they are also the chief impediment to efforts designed to address it. Despite warnings from almost every reputable scientific organization on Earth, people still manage to deny the veracity of anthropogenic climate change. Nick Cohen penned an article for the Guardian with the ominous title, "The climate change deniers have won."

In the article Cohen points to an usually alarming tone in a warning from the American Association for the Advancement of Science which stated that "human-caused climate risks abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes."

The warning from The American Association for the Advancement of Science can be added to a long list of respectable scientific organizations which are calling for urgent action to combat climate change. These groups are the leading voices of scientific enquiry they include The Royal Society, the Royal Institution, Nasa, the US National Academy of Sciences, the US Geological Survey, the IPCC and the national science bodies of 30 or so other countries. All of whom have said unequivocally that human activities are the cause of climate change. As explained by Cohen, "The evidence for man-made global warming is as final as the evidence of Auschwitz."

Despite the certainty of anthropogenic climate change, a surprisingly large number of people have no interest in the facts and we are rapidly running out of time. As we feverishly strive to bring deniers on-board the reality train, it is hard to ignore the possibility that it may already be too late.

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The Collapse of Human Civilization and How to Avoid It

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We are on the verge of irreversible tipping points, but there is still time to avert catastrophe. The combination of unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution may unravel our civilization.  This is the conclusion of a new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center. Based on historical precedents this research indicates that if we continue on our current course we may very well see the collapse of global industrial civilization in the coming decades.

Citing historical data from the last 5,000 years, they show that there are numerous examples of precipitous collapse of human civilizations. A few examples cited by the researchers include:

  • Roman Empire
  • Han Empire
  • Mauryan Empire
  • Gupta Empires
  • Mesopotamian Empires

The study is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharri of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. 

The researchers identified several harbingers of collapsing civilizations, they are:
  • Population
  • Climate
  • Water
  • Agriculture
  • Energy

These factors are eerily reminiscent of the situation we face in the present era. In the words of one of the researchers, these factors closely reflect the "reality of the world today." They specifically state a couple of key factors that could be taken out of today's headlines:

1. The stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity
2. The economic stratification of society into rich and the poor

Their research indicates that these two factors are interconnected. While the poor experience the adverse impacts first, the rich inevitably follow. Although in the interim the rich appear oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory and they continue with business as usual which further exacerbates the problem and hastens the collapse.

"While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites [Rich] and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing."

They further state that we should not expect that technology will resolve the problem.  While the situation may seem hopeless, they indicate that if we can become more sustainable collapse is not inevitable. The study suggests that with the appropriate policy and structural changes we can avoid collapse.

They cite four key solutions: 

1. Reduce economic inequality
2. Reduce resource depletion
3. Reduce population growth
4. Employ renewable resources

Although it is hard for many to fathom, the research shows that the collapse of civilization is not hyperbole. The only difference now is that this collapse will be global and not regional. While the situation is dire, there is still time. By transitioning to more sustainable methods we can pull ourselves back from the brink.

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The Current Climate Trajectory is "Catastrophic"

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The earth is warming faster than anticipated and we are rapidly heading for irreversible tipping points. If we continue with business as usual, by 2100 the earth will warm by at least 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius). That is twice the internationally agreed upon 2 degree C upper threshold limit. We are on a perilous course and while governments acknowledge climate science they are still not doing enough to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.

According to new research out of Australia, increased levels of carbon dioxide (C02) in the atmosphere will reduce the number of clouds that form. Put simply the higher the level of C02 emissions the less water in the atmosphere and the less clouds. This will allow more solar radiation that will cause more warming.

The phenomenon is called atmospheric convective mixing and it will cause temperatures to rise much higher than previous climate-change models have predicted. This research predicts that global temperatures could rise 4 degrees Celsius or 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, and 14.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2200.

This convective mixing research is corroborated by Andrew Emory Dessler, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University and the author of Introduction to Modern Climate Change. His research indicates that if we continue with business as usual, GHG emission will keep rising and lead to a 21st century global average warming of 4.7 - 8.6°F3. This makes climate change a clear and present danger to all of human civilization.

The cloud study was conducted by lead researcher Steven Sherwood and his colleagues at the Climate Change Research Center in Australia's University of New South Wales. He told The Guardian that this level of climate change would be "catastrophic rather than simply dangerous. He also said we need to "urgently start to curb our [CO2] emissions."

The most recent research indicates that climate models which predict that we are heading down a perilous path are wrong. The fact is that the situation is even worse than they have predicted.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Video - The Global Temperature "Hiatus" Explained by Missing Data

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Many skeptics have used the so called global warming hiatus in support of climate denial, however the data does not support the contention that warming has slowed down. This is one of a few theories that suggests that missing data explains away the hiatus.

For more information on the science explaining the hiatus click here.

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The Global Warming "Hiatus" Debunked

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After decades of rapid temperature increases, a decrement in the rate of temperature increases is providing fuel for skeptics and being touted as evidence for climate stabilization. However the fact is that this does not refute global warming. This is of course a rouse put forth by deniers. Global average temperatures will continue to increase and here are three explanations. The first involves missing data and the second and third explanations involve ocean currents.

The reason that some studies have suggested we are in the midst of a temperature hiatus is due to incomplete data sets. According to a 2013 study in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, about 16 percent of the earth's surface was missing from the original assessments that suggested a hiatus, this includes vast areas in the Amazon, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, Australia, and the Antarctic.

Even if we ignore the incompleteness of the data, global warming may have appeared to be decelerating due the fact that the sea is absorbing more heat. This is the conclusion of a report by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The slowdown can been attributed to a shift in ocean currents. The post-1998 Pacific Ocean tended towards La Nina conditions. The result is that the Pacific has been absorbing much of the thermal energy trapped by C02 and other greenhouse gases.

Another 2013 study suggests that the effects known as the "hiatus" are tied to cooling temperatures in the tropical or equatorial Pacific Ocean. When the tropical Pacific naturally switches back into a warm phase, the long-term trends in global warming, including more steeply rising global temperatures, will likely increase,

The fact that the heat goes into the ocean rather than the Earth's land area does not contradict global warming and it certainly does not disprove it. Once the Pacific Ocean swings back to the El Nino or enters a warm phase, we can expect the rapid global warming to resume.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Event - Building Climate Solutions: 14th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment

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Building Climate Solutions will take place on January 28-30, 2014 in Washington, DC. The 14th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment is organized by the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE). This event will engage over 1,200 key individuals from many fields of natural and social science, humanities and engineering, government and policy, business and civil society to develop actionable partnerships, strategies and tactics that advance solutions to minimize the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Topics

Mitigation solutions to minimize the consequences of climate change and adaptation solutions for those consequences that cannot be avoided. They will consider both the built environment and agriculture & natural resources.

Click here for more information.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Video - House Hearings on Climate Change from Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA) Questions to Dr. David Titley

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Here is an excerpt from the Subcommittee on Environment hearing early in December titled "A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather." Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA) poses questions to Dr. David Titley - Director, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk, Pennsylvania State University. Titley talks about skyrocketing reinsurance costs due to extreme weather, the increase in extreme weather events generally and the US military's recognition of the veracity of climate change.

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Video - House Hearings on Climate Change: Opening Statement from Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR)

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Feeling the Heat: A New Study Pinpoints When and Where

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While it is widely known that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, a new study pinpoints the years and locations that we can expect unprecedented heat to become the new normal. The study suggests where and when we can expect to see significant increases in the mean temperature. Within ten years cities like Kingston, Jamaica, are expected to break average heat records as a new norm kicks in. In about 15 years the hotter norm will settle into places like Singapore, followed by Mexico City, Cairo, Phoenix and Honolulu. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be suffering from unprecedented heat. By 2047 the heat will be inescapable as the whole world will be suffering.

Camilo Mora and colleagues in the College of Social Sciences’ Department of Geography at the University of Hawaii, Manoa revealed their findings in a study, entitled “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability,” which was published in the October 10 issue of Nature. The researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to produce their results.

Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field described the research as, "A kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back." "This is really dramatic."Field said.

Even if we manage to reduce our emissions Mora suggests that we would only delay the onset of the worst impacts until 2069. Despite these troubling findings, Mora and his colleagues are not fatalistic and they hope their research can help governments to see the wisdom of doing something before it is too late. "Now is the time to act," said study co-author, Ryan Longman.

The impacts of global warming are already being felt in ocean acidification which has show consistent increases since 2008 and this will decimate coral reefs and the diversity of marine life which depends upon them. In the tropics there will be massive impacts on biodiversity.

While some have suggested that Mora may be presenting an overly optimistic portrayal of time frames, one thing is certain, once we pass these thresholds there will be no turning back.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Video - Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast

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This is a video from a new course being offered on the science of global warming.

Click here for more details.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Free Course on Global Warming Starts Today

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A free 8 week online science based class on global warming begins today, Monday, October 21, 2013.

"This class describes the science of global warming and the forecast for humans’ impact on Earth's climate. It brings together insights and perspectives from physics, chemistry, biology, earth and atmospheric sciences, and even some economics. The simple mathematics underlying these differing approaches is the only background one needs. It is an accessible, multidisciplinary tour of climate science for a general audience."

This class is an updated version of Open Climate 101, which ran a few years ago. Open Climate 101 was a massive open online class (MOOC) and was disseminated from a computer at the University of Chicago. The new class is called Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change. It has been entirely redone and uses the Coursera platform which offers a suite of on-line interactive models.

The easy to watch videos are short duration and last between 2-10 minutes each. All-new on-line computer models, including extensive new browsing systems for global climate records and model results from the new AR5 climate model archive, and an ice sheet model.

Course Format
  • A series of short lecture videos for each section. Videos will have embedded quizzes.
  • Reading assignments associated with each section.
  • Weekly problem sets, six of which rely on computer simulations of climate models.
  • Forum discussions and regular Google Hangouts. (These are optional, but encouraged.)
  • Four optional programming assignments construct numerical models of the Earth system.
  • Final exam.
Course Outline and Syllabus

The class is based on the textbook Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast. This is a highly accessible science based class does not require any special background. The course has three units.

Unit One (weeks 1-4) - What is the Greenhouse Effect?

Heat and Light / Our First Climate Model / Greenhouse Gases / The Atmosphere / Weather and Climate / Feedbacks

The first unit begins with the basic principles for understanding the Earth's climate. It reviews a simple model for the temperature of a planet, and build a picture of the complexity of the real climate system on Earth, with the greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks.

Unit Two (weeks 5-6) - Fossil Fuels and the Carbon Cycle

The Carbon Cycle / Fossil Fuels and Energy / The Perturbed Carbon Cycle

The second unit describes the carbon cycle of the Earth, how it stabilizes Earth's climate on some time scales but destabilizes it on others. Fossil fuel carbon is part of the cycle, and a discussion of the impact of fossil fuel energy on the Earth's carbon cycle.

Unit Three (weeks 7-8) - The Forecast 

The Smoking Gun / Paleoclimate / Impacts / Mitigation

The third and last unit of the class is about the human impact on Earth's climate: why we believe it's changing, why we believe we’re changing it, the impacts that could have, and the options we have to mitigate the situation.

Interactive Features - A time-series browser provides access to:
  • The GHCNM (NOAA) global meteorological station monthly mean temperatures (7169 stations)
  • Global glacier length records (472 records).
  • The new AR5 model results.
  • A total of 12 different models and four scenarios, including Historical, HistoricalNat (natural-only), RCP2.6 (an optimistic ramping-down scenario), and RCP8.5 (less optimistic).
  • An AR5 output mapper makes colored maps of output from climate models, including 3-D atmospheric temperature, specific humidity, cloud fraction, and 2-D fields of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, leaf area index, and snow cover.
  • These are monthly mean values from the Historical then RCP8.5 scenarios. The browser buffers the maps so that you can switch between them quickly, or show them in a slide show or movie.
  • The Slugulator, a new model for comparing the climate impacts of CO2 and CH4, lets you release slugs of either greenhouse gas and compare the antics that ensue. Using this feature you can compare the energy yield from fossil fuels, next to the total greenhouse energy trapped over the lifetimes of the gases.
  • An interactive ice sheet model, enables users to clobber with slugs of CO2 (or just drag the temperature around) as it’s running.
  • Modtran is an old favorite which enables you can demonstrate the band saturation effect, Geocarb, which shows the long tail of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere, and lots more.
Students can also explore topics of personal interest and investigate topics of their own devising, which they will write up and submit to grading by other students.

Suggested Readings

All required reading will be provided within the course. Discussion forums will be focused on two optional books, Six Degrees, by Mark Lynas and Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution--and How It Can Renew America, by Thomas L. Friedman.

Click here to find our more or enroll.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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