Showing posts with label glaciers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label glaciers. Show all posts

Balken Flooding and the Costs of Climate Change

Much of the former Yugoslavia (Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia) is under water and hundreds of thousands of buildings are inundated across the region. Some of the worst flooding ever experienced in the area has killed almost 50 people and triggered more than three thousand landslides.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated and millions of people are affected. People all across the region are cut off with no water, food, power or communications. The floods are exposing some of the more than one hundred thousand mines and driving the biggest mass migration in the Balkans since the war in the 1990s. 

Four months of rain fell in less than 40 hours in some areas causing rivers to jump their banks. The cause of this inundation started with a powerful heat dome high pressure system over a region just north of the Caspian Sea. By late Tuesday one week ago,  a powerful low pressure system had formed, bringing precipitation and turning the system into a kind of inland hurricane.

In addition to destroying homes, washing out roads, bridges and railway lines, the flooding has severely damaged the coal-fired Nikola Tesla power plant which supplies electricity for half of Serbia and most of Belgrade.

"What we are facing is the biggest water catastrophe in Serbia’s history," Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said. "These are the kind of waters not seen in 1,000 years, let alone 100."

As the climate continues to warm more flooding is expected from increased precipitation and melting ice. Although it is still too early to make a causal connection between global warming and the flooding in the Balkans, a link has been drawn between recent unprecedented flooding in the UK and climate change.

The cost of the flooding in the Balkans is already hundreds of millions of dollars. However, the costs of the damage associated with flooding is only one facet of the situation, landslides are another corollary of climate change. In addition to flooding and landslides, climate change also leads to mass migrations which can trigger its own set of problems including conflict.

Flooding has proven to be very expensive and the situation is expected to get far worse. One report indicates that flooding will double in the EU by 2050. The EU is already spending billions to deal with flooding ($6.7 billion between 2000-2012) and it is expected that this number will rise to $32.1 billion by 2050.

Globally, the costs from flooding alone are estimated to be at least 2 trillion annually and the IEA says that climate change will cost $115 trillion by 2050.

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Event - Flooding Conference 2014 with CIWEM RCG

Flooding Conference 2014 will take place on January 30 at the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), 15 John Street, London. The subtitle for this event is, "Delivering Flood & Coastal Schemes & Projects Partnering, Joint Funding and Frameworks, Developing Practice and Emerging Lessons."

Aim

The ways of working and funding arrangements involved in the delivery of major flood and coastal schemes and projects are changing fast. The aim of this conference for flood and erosion risk professionals will be to showcase the developing and innovative partnership approaches to the effective delivery of schemes and projects. This will include the identification of the multiple benefits, working with partners, large consortia projects, framework agreements, shared services agreements, different contractual arrangements and risk management

Objectives

To understand the emerging approaches to partnership working, funding arrangements and client - contractor arrangements for the effective delivery of schemes and projects.

To illustrate this by highlighting schemes and projects that have used a wide variety of mechanisms and reviews that have assessed these emerging work patterns.

In particular to highlight the emerging learning from projects and schemes covering:
  • Achieving a clear view of shared benefits across funding stakeholders
  • Partnership funding
  • Shared service agreements
  • Environment Agency Frameworks
  • The work of large scale consortia on major projects
  • Contractual arrangements and ways of working that minimise risks to clients and contractors
Click here for more information or contact Bob Earll: bob.earll@coastms.co.uk

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The Costs of Flood Damage will Rise Along with Sea Levels

Flooding is a very expensive corollary of global warming. While we cannot connect individual weather events directly to global warming, the storm that hit Europe in early December is nonetheless a powerful reminder of what the future will look like as the world continues to warm. Much of the billion dollars worth of damage caused by Xaver is due to flooding caused by storm surges.

As global warming continues and ice keeps melting, sea levels will keep rising which will increase the damage caused by storm surges. A warmer planet not only increases the volume of sea water, it is also expected to increase precipitation in places that need it least. As reported by 350.org, global warming has already raised global sea level about 20 cm since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Scientists expect roughly 60 to 210 more cm of sea level rise this century, depending on whether or not we can limit greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs).

Flooding is a very costly phenomenon. A 2013 study in Nature concluded that flooding could cost the world’s cities $60 billion a year, even with major investments in flood protection. If we don’t make those investments, the cost could be up to $1 trillion a year.

These costs underscore the importance of moving away from energy sources that produce GHGs.  However fossil fuel companies in Europe and elsewhere are actively resisting efforts to engage more renewable sources of energy. As many in Europe are working to strengthen that continent's 2030 carbon reduction goals, fossil fuel interests like the Magritte Group, (a coalition of the CEOs of Europe's largest energy companies), are actively campaigning to decrease climate regulations.

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Sea-level rise is a slow-moving threat that presents a tremendous risk to some of America's most populous cities. As climate change drives sea levels higher, and more Americans than ever are calling the coastal U.S. home, cities like Miami, New York and New Orleans will likely face billions of dollars in flood-related damages per year if nothing is done to address climate change. The Center for American Progress visited Norfolk, Virginia, a city on the front-lines of the fight against rising seas, to talk to residents and community leaders about their efforts to save the city and learn to live with the water. One thing is clear: doing nothing is not an option.

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Melting Canadian Glaciers

A new study published in the Geophysical Research Letters indicates that about 20 percent of all the ice contained in Canada's glaciers could melt by the end of this century if global average temperatures increased by 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 F) and by 8 Celsius (14.4 F) in the Canadian Arctic.

Previous studies still anticipated a heavy melt of Canada's glaciers resulting in an increase in global sea levels of around 2 centimeters. However, the new study indicates that we can expect a sea level rise of 3.5 centimeters, almost double the previous finding. That is 75 percent more water than previously thought,

This data applies only to Canadian glaciers. When other melting glaciers (ie Greenland, Russia, South-America, etc...) are factored into the equation, sea level rises are considerably higher.

According to a U.N. panel of climate scientists sea levels will rise by between 18 and 59 cm this century, or more if a thaw of vast ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland accelerates."This alone would lead to an increase in sea levels by about 3.5 cm (1.4 inch)."

Lead author of the study, Jan Lenaerts, of the University of Utrecht said that the trend seemed unstoppable because a thaw of white glaciers would expose dark-colored tundra that would soak up more of the sun's heat and further accelerate the melt.

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