Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Feedback Loop Between Extreme Weather and Fossil Fuels Makes the Case for Clean Energy

As clean energy continues to grow storms continue to highlight the dangers of oil and gas. Fossil fuels and storms are locked in a perilous relationship that sees each contribute to the destructive force of the other. Extreme weather events have repeatedly ravaged Texas oil infrastructure.

Storms wreak havoc with both the economy and the environment. Preliminary estimates put the economic cost of Hurricane Harvey at $190 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in US history. There are also costs in the fossil fuel sector associated with Hurricane Harvey passing right through the hub of the US petroleum and natural gas industries in southeast Texas.

Oil companies including Royal Dutch Shell, Anadarko Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil shut down operations and evacuated employees from their offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil refineries also shut down leaving a million barrel shortfall. Crude oil prices have been steadily climbing with many fearing it could top $50 a barrel.

The disruption the fossil fuel industry in Texas significantly impacts domestic energy markets and creates a ripple effect on the national economy. As of September 01, 2017 the national average for regular was $2.54 a gallon, an increase of 18 cents in the last week. During this time prices jumped at least 10 cents a gallon in 24 hours in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and the Mid-Atlantic states. As of September 4th national average gas prices were $2.67 but some are predicting prices as high as $2.75 a gallon in the coming days. Some Dallas area gas stations were charging almost $4.00 a gallon. Many Dallas gas stations have run out of gas presaging long lines and shortages all the way up the east coast.

This is the fourth time in less than a decade that there has been massive storm related energy infrastructure disruptions in Texas. Climate change models predict that the intensity of storms will continue to increase and this will increase both economic and environmental impacts. As if to prove the point one of the strongest Hurricanes ever is currently lashing the Caribbean and barrelling towards the US mainland.

Before the dust settled from Hurricane Harvey another even stronger storm has formed in the Caribbean. It has been named Hurricane Irma and it is poised to hit the US mainland in the coming days. Hurricane Irma has been referred to as "potentially catastrophic" by CNN. It has maximum sustained wind speeds of 180 mph. That is well above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 hurricane. These intense storms reveal the destructive synergistic nexus between fossil fuels and climate.

The burning of fossil fuels emit greenhouse gases that trap heat and increase water vapor in the atmosphere. This in turn fuels extreme weather events that disrupt fossil fuel production, refinement and transportation. In addition to increasing fuel prices, these storms destroy fossil fuel infrastructure sometimes resulting in spills that contaminate the environment. This is especially true of Texas which is home to a dense concentration of fossil fuel infrastructure.

According to the EIA approximately 33 percent of US refining capacity comes from the Texas Gulf Coast. Approximately 25 percent of US natural gas production and 50 percent of US oil production originates in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. The latter accounts for almost 20 percent of US crude oil production.

Harvey is hardly the first storm to disrupt the fossil fuel industry. The last three hurricanes to hit the US Gulf Coast (Gustav and Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012) all affected oil and natural gas infrastructure. According to the EIA these three storms all shut in more than one million barrels per day of crude oil production and more than three billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. The storms also shut down significant pipeline and refining capacity. This will have both a national and a global affect. Residents of Canada are already feeling the affects of the storm at the pump.

Distributed energy makes sense in the context of climate change and increasingly intense extreme weather. Highly concentrated oil infrastructure is vulnerable to economic disruption and threatens national security. Flexible clean alternatives including onsite solar and wind facilities offer a more nimble approach to secure energy generation.

Clean energy sites are also subject to interruptions from extreme weather but these are minor compared to fossil fuels. Like the fossil fuel industry the burgeoning wind industry in Texas went off line in advance of Harvey but this did not impact access to electricity in Texas. Unlike renewables the production, refining and transportation of fossil fuels are all especially vulnerable to Hurricanes. The environmental, economic, energy and health impacts of a storm are far worse for fossil fuels than they are for renewables.

Fossil fuels still rely on an out-dated centralized model. The growth of both renewables and energy storage have pushed the US electricity grid towards a more diverse and distributed model. It would appear that the Energy Department shares the view that reforms are required.

At the same time that Harvey was making landfall in the US the Energy Department released its review of national grid resiliency. Despite the study's support for nuclear power and coal (it suggests the EPA should ease permitting requirements for new coal fired plants) the study also seems to indicate that there is value in integrating more renewables into the grid.

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Hurricane Harvey and the State of Climate Science
Hurricane Harvey and Trump's Hypocritical Resistance to Climate Resilience
A Review of Extreme Weather in 2016
The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)
Review of Extreme Weather in 2015
Growing Levels of GHGs are Warming the Planet and Contributing to Disasters
Extreme Weather and Existential Reflections on Life in the Anthropocene
Extreme Weather Makes a Convincing Case for Climate Change
Typhoon Haiyan and Climate Change
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Mother Nature Strikes Back: A Review of Extreme Weather in 2016

Extreme weather is a deadly corollary of climate change. A UN study found that between 1995 and 2015, 600,000 people died from natural disasters. Global warming is known to exacerbate the intensity of extreme weather events. We are already seeing clear evidence of climate change playing a role in a growing number of natural disasters. Thanks to advances in attribution science we can now see the role that climate change plays in driving a succession of increasingly severe extreme weather events.

According to a report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, floods accounted for 30 percent of the world's top ten natural disasters in 2015. In 2015, three of the world's top 10 natural disasters by the number of fatalities were floods. In first place was heat waves, accounting for four of the top 10.

The warming trend and associated extreme weather events continued in 2016, which has replaced 2015 as the hottest year on record. Decades of hot data are the harbingers of a climate catastrophe. As published in Insurance Journal, here is a list of some of the extreme weather events we experienced in 2016
  • Flooding in China’s Yangtze Basin from May through August killed at least 475 people and caused $28 billion in losses.
  • A drought in India that started earlier in the year and stretched through June caused about $5 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in West Virginia and the mid-Atlantic in June killed 23 people and damaged more than 5,500 buildings.
  • Typhoon Nepartak hit the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July, killing 111 people and causing at least $1.5 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in northeast China in July killed 289 people and caused about $5 billion in damage.
  • Temperatures reached 129 degrees (54 degrees Celsius) in Kuwait and Iraq in July.
  • Flooding in Louisiana in August killed 13 people and caused around $15 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in Sudan and South Sudan in July and August killed 129 people and damaged more than 41,000 buildings.
  • A long heat wave coupled with high humidity afflicted the U.S. South and East. Savannah, Georgia, had 69 straight days when the temperature hit 90 or higher.
  • Typhoon Lionrock hit Japan, China and Korea in August and killed 77 people while damaging more than 20,000 buildings.
  • Spain set a record for the hottest September temperature recorded in Europe, with marks of 114 and 115 degrees.
  • Localities in the United States broke nearly 15,000 daily records for hot nighttime minimum temperatures from May into September.
Hurricane Matthew wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Although not as severe the effects of the Hurricane were felt in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. What makes this hurricane noteworthy is that advances in attribution science are making it easier to see the role played by climate change.  The relationship between extreme weather and climate change was explored in a recent Scientific American article.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing about extreme weather in the US is the GOP's refusal to accept reality. Republicans ignored unprecedented heat and record breaking precipitation while boldly revealing policy platforms that will exacerbate the situation. The GOP's love of fossil fuels and disdain for climate action is equaled only by their hatred for science.

In the span of six months two once in 500 year storms have devastated Louisiana. Similar catastrophic flooding has gripped many pats of the world in 2016 including China, India, Macedonia, Pakistan and Sudan.

As reported by Damian Carrington in a Washington Post article, this warming trend has dire implications for extreme weather which costs lives, destroys crops and contributes to food insecurity.

"The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue...Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen...Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular," Carrington said.

The WMO said human-induced global warming had contributed to at least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.

"It is almost as if mother nature is making a statement," said climate scientist Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2016 extreme weather and climate events have adversely affected agriculture impacting the food security of more than 60 million people.

"Climate change is not like other issues that can be postponed from one year to the next,” he said. “The US and world are already behind; speed is of the essence because climate change and its impacts are coming sooner and with greater ferocity than anticipated."

The situation is dire as indicated by new research published at the end of 2016. The findings are from a Stanford University doctoral dissertation by Carolyn Snyder, a climate policy official at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As reported in Nature the research suggests the Earth is currently warmer than it has been in 100,000 years. The conclusion of the Snyder study suggests that current levels of fossil fuel use indicate the Earth is 'locked into' temperatures not Seen in 2 million years. The research suggests that we may see temperature rises of up to 9° Celsius.

As reported in an accompanying Nature article: "Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia." If Trump delivers on his promise to extract and burn even more fossil fuels the situation could be even worse that predicted by the research.

"The kinds of extreme weather we have seen over the past year or so will be routine all too soon, but then even worse records will be set," Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s leading climatologists, told Think Progress' Joe Romm.

Related
The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)
Review of Extreme Weather in 2015
Growing Levels of GHGs are Warming the Planet and Contributing to Disasters
Extreme Weather and Existential Reflections on Life in the Anthropocene
Strong Body of Evidence for a Changing Climate
Extreme Weather Makes a Convincing Case for Climate Change

The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)

It is widely accepted that warmer seas contribute to hurricanes but there are also a number of other factors that contribute to extreme weather events. Here is a review of the evidence linking climate change and Hurricane Matthew.

Matthew has already wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it has killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Four Americans are known to have died due to the storm. There are currently states of emergency in effect in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Although Matthew has been downgraded from a level 5 to a level 1 hurricane it still packs a punch.  It looks as though central Florida was spared the worst, but cities along the East Coast are bracing for the storm.

Florida is no stranger to hurricanes. In 2004, four major hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) caused billions of dollars in damage in the state. These storms were followed by Hurricane Katrina a year later.

The cause of these extreme weather events was the subject of cautious reflection in the scientific community.

While we know that climate models predict more intense extreme weather events scientist are very careful about attributing any one storm to climate change. That is not to say there is no link, it merely reflects the cautious approach taken by scientists.

Until very recently there was inadequate data to make a conclusive pronouncement. We now have more reliable satellite systems, which allow better tracking.

Scientists are reluctant to assign any given weather event to climate change. Initially, hurricane Sandy was dismissed as being unrelated to climate change. However, scientists subsequently confirmed that climate change did play a role in Sandy.

The science connecting hurricanes and climate change has improved. Some scientific observations are obvious. One such recent observation corroborating the worsening hurricane trend came from the East Pacific basin which saw Hurricane Patricia generate the highest wind speeds ever recorded on Earth.

Here is a summary of what we know about the climate change/hurricane connection: Warmer oceans spawn more storms and more storms will increase rainfall and water vapor. These phenomena can fuel more intense hurricanes.

The Washington Post delved into the question of the science linking Hurricane Matthew to climate change. They quoted a recent scientific overview on the links between hurricanes and climate.-climate:

“While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in [tropical cyclone] numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins.”

The situation in the Atlantic is complex. To understand the relationship between climate change and hurricanes in the Atlantic we must factor natural cycles (such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). We must even evaluate the impact of reductions in atmospheric aerosols that occurred following tighter regulations on these emissions.

Even when we factor these phenomena it is still very hard to attribute an individual storm to a changing climate.

Still, there are reasons to believe that although other factors are involved, Matthew has been exacerbated by climate change.

Kevin Trenberth, a researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told the Washington Post there seems to be a combination of the overall warming trend and natural variability, such as the El Nino-La Nina cycle, behind what we’re seeing: "The overall increase in moisture is about 5 to 6% from climate change, and in a hurricane that gets doubled because the storm intensifies and increases the convergence of moisture. But in the Atlantic, in the year following El Nino, the [sea surface temperature] tends to be higher in the subtropics (because with El Nino the winds are lighter and more sunny skies), and indeed in the subtropics east of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, [sea surface temperatures] have been running 2 deg C (3 to 4F) above normal, and moisture 10 to perhaps 15% above normal. Indeed this was the region that fed the Louisiana floods (not so much the Gulf). So the potential has been there: a natural variability component on top of the global warming to produce a very strong storm."

Matthew had a very rapid rate of escalation to a category 5 and it is also very persistent. These statistically anomalous observations are consistent with climate change but no clear causal link can be drawn. While observations should not be confused with proof they are nonetheless consistent with scientific predictions.

As the world warms, sea levels are rising and this will worsen the impacts of storms. Even small increases in sea level can have a big impact on storm surges.

Climate change has influenced the strength and endurance of Matthew.  While the evidence may not be sufficiently rigorous for a climatologist, those who extrapolate and draw conclusions from existing evidence may prove to be more accurate than the understandably cautious claims of scientists.

It is important to note that the data in no way disproves the connection between Matthew and a changing climate. However, scientists require an abundance of evidence before they will say anything with any degree of confidence.

In a Think Progress article, the venerable  Joe Romm pulls no punches in connecting this hurricane and climate change. "Matthew has already set a number of records — and global warming is giving it a boost," Romm asserts.

He then goes on to review some of Matthew's record-breaking feats and squarely attributes them to climate change:
  • longest-lived Category 4 (or higher) Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. 
  • most accumulated cyclone energy of any Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Caribbean
He then cites several papers that support a close relationship between hurricanes and climate change. One showing a 20 - 30 percent increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes in recent years. A few other studies show an increase in hurricane intensity including in the North Atlantic.

These observations are corroborated by a host of other findings including the fact that the summer of 2016 was the hottest summer in recorded history and possibly the hottest in "thousands of years."

The oceans are warmer and we are also seeing a sharp rise in the most damaging storm surges.

One tropical cyclone expert just warned, "Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could double or triple in the coming decades."

Romm comes to the logical conclusion that in the face of the evidence, "We simply cannot cut carbon pollution fast enough."


Related
Growing Levels of GHGs are Warming the Planet and Contributing to Disasters
Decades of Hot Data: The Harbingers of an Impending Climate Catastrophe
Extreme Weather and Existential Reflections on Life in the Anthropocene
Strong Body of Evidence for a Changing Climate 
Consistent Ongoing Heat is Rewriting the Record Books (April Temperature Update)
Review of Extreme Weather in 2015
Video - Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Prof. Jennifer Francis
Video - Climate Change Fueling Wilder Weather (Climate Commission)
Typhoon Haiyan and Climate Change
Video - Superstorm Sandy Climate Change and Extreme Weather
IPCC Report Predicts More Frequent and More Intense Extreme Weather
Extreme Weather and the Costs of Climate Change

Video - Years of Living Dangerously (Premiere Full Episode)



Watch the world premiere of the new series, "Years of Living Dangerously" which involves celebrities and respected journalists as they span the globe to explore the issues of climate change and cover intimate stories of human triumph and tragedy. The "Years of Living Dangerously" takes you directly to the heart of climate change issues in an awe-inspiring, cinematic documentary series event.

Register or join a WATCH PARTY for the premiere, this Sunday - April 13th! Parties start at 7:00pm ET. Click here to join the Google+ HANGOUT after watching.

Click here to subscribe to the Years of Living Dangerously channel on YouTube. Watch new episodes Sundays at 10PM ET/PT, on SHOWTIME. Click here to watch on Showtime anytime or click here to order online.

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Senators All Night Vigil Urging Action on Climate Change

Starting on Monday, March 10 and concluding on Tuesday, March 11, 28 Senators (26 Democrats and two independents) will be speaking all night to urge action on climate change. Immediately following votes on the evening of Monday, March 10 until approximately 9 am ET Tuesday, March 11, Senators from the Senate Climate Action Task Force will be holding the Senate floor to urge action on climate change.

“Climate change is real, it is caused by humans, and it is solvable,” said Senator Schatz. “Congress must act. On Monday night we’re going to show the growing number of Senators who are committed to working together to confront climate change.”

Senator Boxer said: “So many Senators coming together for an all-night session shows our commitment to wake up Congress to the dangers of climate change. All you have to do is look at China to see what happens to your country when you throw the environment under the bus.”

"The cost of Congress' inaction on climate change is too high for our communities, our kids and grandkids, and our economy,” Senator Whitehouse said. “On Monday we’ll be sending a clear message: it’s time for Congress to wake up and get serious about addressing this issue.”

Senators expected to participate include:

Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
Senator Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
Senator Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.
Senator Patty Murray, D-Wash.
Senator Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I.
Senator Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.
Senator Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.
Senator Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
Senator Bill Nelson, D-Fla.
Senator Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.
Senator Benjamin L. Cardin, D-Md.
Senator Bernard Sanders, I-Vt.
Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.
Senator Mark Udall, D-Colo.
Senator Tom Udall, D-N.M.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.
Senator Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y.
Senator Al Franken, D-Minn.
Senator Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.
Senator Chris Murphy, D-Conn.
Senator Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.
Senator Angus King, I-Maine
Senator Tim Kaine, D-Va.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Senator Edward J. Markey, D-Mass.
Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J.

Senators will be actively participating on social media as well throughout the night – using the hashtag #Up4Climate.

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Secretary of State Kerry Compares Climate Change to Weapons of Mass Destruction

Here are excerpts of US Secretary of State John Kerry's Sunday February 16th speech in Jakarta, Indonesia, in which he compares climate change to weapons of mass destruction.

Think about this: terrorism, epidemics, poverty, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — all challenges that know no borders. The reality is that climate change ranks right up there with every single one of them.

Think about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It doesn’t keep us safe if the United States secures its nuclear arsenal, while other countries fail to prevent theirs from falling into the hands of terrorists.

The bottom line is this: it is the same thing with climate change. And in a sense, climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

Related
Secretary of State Kerry: Climate Change is a Catastrophic Threat
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10 Charts on Climate Change

Secretary of State Kerry: Climate Change is a Catastrophic Threat

Secretary of State John Kerry gave a speech in Indonesia on Sunday February 16. In this speech he made some of his most powerful statements to date about the threat posed by climate change.

Here are some highlights from his speech in Jakarta:

It’s not an exaggeration to say to you that the entire way of life that you live and love is at risk.

[In 1992]...Maurice Strong...told us: “Every bit of evidence I’ve seen persuades me that we are on a course leading to tragedy.”

When I think about the array of global climate – of global threats – think about this: terrorism, epidemics, poverty, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction – all challenges that know no borders – the reality is that climate change ranks right up there with every single one of them.

And the reason is simple: The science of climate change is leaping out at us like a scene from a 3D movie. It’s warning us; it’s compelling us to act. And let there be no doubt in anybody’s mind that the science is absolutely certain. It’s something that we understand with absolute assurance of the veracity of that science. No one disputes some of the facts about it.

So when thousands of the world’s leading scientists and five reports over a long period of time with thousands of scientists contributing to those reports – when they tell us over and over again that our climate is changing, that it is happening faster than they ever predicted, ever in recorded history, and when they tell us that we humans are the significant cause, let me tell you something: We need to listen.

When 97 percent of scientists agree on anything, we need to listen, and we need to respond.

Well, 97 percent of climate scientists have confirmed that climate change is happening and that human activity is responsible. These scientists agree on the causes of these changes and they agree on the potential effects. They agree that the emission of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide contributes heavily to climate change. They agree that the energy sources that we’ve relied on for decades to fuel our cars and to heat our homes or to air condition our homes, to – all the things that provide us electricity like oil and coal – that these are largely responsible for sending those greenhouse gases up into the atmosphere. And the scientists agree that emissions coming from deforestation and from agriculture can also send enormous quantities of carbon pollution into our atmosphere.

And they agree that, if we continue to go down the same path that we are going down today, the world as we know it will change – and it will change dramatically for the worse.

And the results of our human activity are clear. If you ranked all the years in recorded history by average temperature, you’d see that 8 of the 10 hottest years have all happened within the last 10 years.

And because the earth is getting hotter at such an alarming speed, glaciers in places like the Arctic are melting into the sea faster than we expected. And the sea is rising

Now, climate change also tragically means the end of some species. The changing sea temperature and the increasing amount of acidity – the acidity comes from coal-fired power plants and from the pollution, and when the rain falls the rain spills the acidity into the ocean. And it means that certain species of fish like cod or sardines can no longer live where they once lived. This is devastating for the world’s fisheries.

Climate change also means water shortages. And if you have these enormous water shortages, then you have a change in the weather – because of the weather patterns, you’re going to wind up with droughts, the lack of water. And the droughts can become longer and more intense. In fact, this isn’t something around the corner – this is happening now.

We are seeing record droughts right now, and they’re already putting a strain on water resources around the world. We’ve already seen in various parts of the world – in Africa, for instance – people fighting each other over water, and we’ve seen more conflicts shaping up now over the limits of water. Back in the United States, President Obama just the other day visited California, where millions of people are now experiencing the 13th month of the worst drought the state has seen in 500 years. And no relief is in sight. What used to be a 100-year or a 500-year event is now repeating itself within 10 years.

Furthermore, climate change means fundamental transformations in agriculture worldwide. Scientists predict that, in some places, heat waves and water shortages will make it much more difficult for farmers to be able to grow the regular things we grow, like wheat or corn or rice. And obviously, it’s not only farmers who will suffer here – it’s the millions of people who depend on those crops that the farmers grow. For example, the British government research showed that climate change may have contributed to the famine that killed as many as 100,000 people in Somalia just back in 2010 and 2011.

And scientists further predict that climate change also means longer, more unpredictable monsoon seasons and more extreme weather events.

On top of the unspeakable humanitarian toll, the economic cost that follows a storm like that is absolutely massive...So it’s not just about agriculture – it’s also about technology. It’s about our global economy. It’s about potentially catastrophic effects on the global supply chain.

Now, despite all of these realities – despite these facts – much of the world still doesn’t see or want to see the need to pursue a significant response to this threat.

one of the most catastrophic, grave threats in the history of human life.

The window of time is still open for us to be able to manage this threat. But the window is closing... We just don’t have time to let a few loud interests groups hijack the climate conversation...I’m talking about big companies that like it the way it is that don’t want to change, and spend a lot of money to keep you and me and everybody from doing what we know we need to do.

First and foremost, we should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists and science and extreme ideologues to compete with scientific fact. Nor should we allow any room for those who think that the costs associated with doing the right thing outweigh the benefits. There are people who say, “Oh, it’s too expensive, we can’t do this.” No. No, folks. We certainly should not allow more time to be wasted by those who want to sit around debating whose responsibility it is to deal with this threat, while we come closer and closer to the point of no return.

I have to tell you, this is really not a normal kind of difference of opinion between people. Sometimes you can have a reasonable argument and a reasonable disagreement over an opinion you may have. This is not opinion. This is about facts. This is about science. The science is unequivocal. And those who refuse to believe it are simply burying their heads in the sand.

...Obama and I believe very deeply that we do not have time for a meeting anywhere of the Flat Earth Society. One of the arguments that we do hear is that it’s going to be too expensive to be able to address climate change. I have to tell you, that assertion could not be less grounded in fact. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. Serious analysts understand that the costs of doing nothing far outweigh the costs of investing in solutions now. You do not need a degree in economics or a graduate degree in business in order to understand that the cost of flooding, the cost of drought, the cost of famine, the cost of health care, the cost of addressing this challenge is simply far less – the costs of addressing this challenge are far less than the costs of doing nothing. Just look at the most recent analysis done by the World Bank, which estimates that by 2050, losses – excuse me one second – losses from flood damage in Asian ports – fishing ports, shipping ports – the losses in those ports alone could exceed $1 trillion annually unless we make big changes to the infrastructure of those ports.

It’s everyone’s responsibility. Now certainly some countries – and I will say this very clearly, some countries, including the United States, contribute more to the problem and therefore we have an obligation to contribute more to the solution. I agree with that. But, ultimately, every nation on Earth has a responsibility to do its part if we have any hope of leaving our future generations the safe and healthy planet that they deserve.

climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.

The fact is that climate change, if left unchecked, will wipe out many more communities from the face of the earth. And that is unacceptable under any circumstances – but is even more unacceptable because we know what we can do and need to do in order to deal with this challenge.

At the end of the day, emissions coming from anywhere in the world threaten the future for people everywhere in the world...we need a global solution.

...climate change isn’t only a challenge. It’s not only a burden. It also presents one of the greatest economic opportunities of all time.

I am absolutely confident that if we choose to, we will meet this challenge...Human ingenuity has long proven its ability to solve seemingly insurmountable challenges. It is not a lack of ability that is a problem. It is a lack of political resolve that is standing in our way. And I will tell you as somebody who ran for elected office, when you hear from the people, when the people make it clear what they want and what they think they need, then people in politics respond.

Today I call on all of you in Indonesia and concerned citizens around the world to demand the resolve that is necessary from your leaders. Speak out. Make climate change an issue that no public official can ignore for another day. Make a transition towards clean energy the only plan that you are willing to accept.

And if we come together now, we can not only meet the challenge, we can create jobs and economic growth in every corner of the globe. We can clean up the air, we can improve the health of people, we can have greater security; we can make our neighborhoods healthier places to live; we can help ensure that farmers and fishers can still make a sustainable living and feed our communities; and we can avoid disputes and even entire wars over oil, water, and other limited resources. We can make good on the moral responsibility we all have to leave future generations with a planet that is clean and healthy and sustainable for the future.

we can meet this challenge, the greatest challenge of our generation, and we can create the future that everybody dreams of.

Thank you all very much for letting me be with you. Thank you.

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"Catastrophic" Ice Storm Slams the Southeast and Heads North

The US southeast from Alabama through South Carolina was hit with a very unusual ice and snow storm. Officials and forecasters in several states in the Deep South called the storm "catastrophic." The storm is being blamed for at least 15 deaths in the South and hundreds of car accidents.

The winter storm has impacted an area stretching from northern Florida all the way to Maine, but it is being felt most in the South where people are least accustomed to ice and snow. 

Already three quarters of a million people are without power and that number is expected to increase as more ice and snow fall. These power outages could leave people in the cold, dark for days. An ice storm in the Atlanta area in 2000 left more than 500,000 homes and businesses without power. After a snowstorm stranded thousands two weeks ago, the mayor of Atlanta, urged people to stay home. This left the business district virtually devoid of life. The area includes the headquarters for companies like Home Depot, UPS, Delta and Coca-Cola.

President Barack Obama declared a state of emergency in Georgia, ordering federal agencies to help the state and local response during the storm. Georgia also declared an emergency for around half of the state and the National Guard is on standby. More than 70 shelters are now open.

Winter weather woes were apparent all throughout the Deep South and extended all the way up the east coast to Maine. The storm closed much of Washington and dropped as much as 18 inches of snow in some areas. Most schools along the east coast were closed. About 5,771 domestic US flights were canceled and another 1,235 are delayed

Many states in the south have declared an emergency. In North Texas, at least four people died in traffic accidents on icy roads. In northeastern Alabama, two National Guard wreckers were dispatched to help clear jackknifed 18-wheelers on Interstate 65.

Parts of northeast Mississippi could see up to 4 inches of snow. South Carolina, which hasn't seen a major ice storm in nearly a decade, could get a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of ice and as much as 8 inches of snow in some areas. Thousands of flights have been cancelled due to the storm.

At the end of 2013 Toronto and much of southern Ontario suffered from the crippling effects of a massive ice storm. More recently the central European country of Slovenia was encased in a thick layer of ice.

Ice storms can arise whenever warm air is sandwiched between two pockets of cold air (see graphic on the left). one high up in the atmosphere and one at the surface. Precipitation begins as snow high in the atmosphere, it then turns to rain as it falls through the layer of warm air. As the raindrops fall through the cold air at the bottom, they become supercooled, dipping below the freezing point yet remaining in a liquid state. When the droplets of water make contact with a tree or electrical pylons they form a heavy sheet of ice.

Climate change skeptics like to point to cold weather as evidence that the globe isn't warming. However, global average temperatures clearly show that the globe is getting hotter. It is possible and even likely that climate change will increase the likelihood of periods of extreme cold. Despite these cold snaps the planet is still showing an unmistakeable warming trend.

While no individual weather event can be linked to climate change, there may be a paradoxical relationship between cold weather and global warming. In colder climates like Toronto and Slovenia, warmer winter temperatures can increase the intensity and quantity of freezing rain and wet snow. Whereas in warmer climates, such as the US southeast colder than normal temperatures are the catalysts for an ice storm.

A cold snap is thought to be caused by stratospheric warming which can slow the wind speeds of the arctic atmosphere and push the colder air (often called the polar vortex) further south. As the Arctic ice melts the sea absorbs more light/heat from the sun, which in turn alters the jet-stream and shifts the polar vortex southward.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Report - Top 10 Energy Management Predictions for 2014

Do you want to know what will be the major energy management trends that will impact corporates and utilities in 2014? Look no further than this complimentary report. Verdantix has compiled years of research into energy technologies, energy services and power utilities, as well as conducing extensive interviews with 500 energy managers in 2012 and 2013.

In 2014 Verdantix predicts:

  • Building energy management will explode in Japan
  • Legislative changes will kick-start demand response in Europe
  • On-site solar installed capacity will power ahead
  • Electric vehicles will appear in corporate fleets in growing proportions
  • Power utilities will launch new energy management services for their small and medium business customers
  • Innovative utilities will start building out capabilities for microgrids.

Click here to download the report.

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Predictions for US Energy Efficiency in 2014: Growth and Obstacles

What can we expect from energy efficiency in the US in 2014? Insight into some of the major trends in energy efficiency for the year to come and beyond (this article is a followup to US Energy Efficiency in 2013: Success Stories and Barriers).

Efficiency will have an even greater impact on both residential and industrial energy consumption this year compared to 2013. This is driven by policy at the federal, state and municipal levels. Net-positive energy buildings is another trend expected to grow in 2014. Other specific initiatives that will define energy efficiency in 2014 relate to financing, data usage, operational savings, and equipment integration.

According to forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2014, U.S. residential energy use is expected to decline. Even though energy is increasingly being used more efficiently by industry, industrial electricity use is expected to expand along with the economy. The EIA report indicates that improvements in appliance and lighting energy efficiency will continue to slow the growth of residential electricity consumption. The average household’s energy use is expected to decline 1.1 percent this year and another 0.4 percent in 2015. However, the improving economic picture will increase electricity use by the U.S. industrial sector, which is forecast to consume 2.2 percent more electricity this year and 2.5 percent more in 2015.

A Rhodium Group and United Technologies report, entitled “Unlocking American Efficiency: The Economic and Commercial Power of Investing in Energy Efficient Buildings,” indicates that the U.S. government and utility sponsored programs have only a five percent penetration rate. An increase in energy efficiency can be expected in 2014 as wider adoption of these programs positively impacts the efficiency finance equation.

As reviewed in Energy Manager Today, federal energy efficiency initiatives in 2014 include final equipment standards for a variety of products such as electric motors, commercial refrigeration equipment, and residential furnace fans. Together, the DOE and HUD are expected to release housing initiatives that include new energy standards for manufactured homes. New energy efficiency requirements for federally-backed mortgages are also anticipated. This may also include modifications to mortgage underwriting criteria, which would factor a home’s energy efficiency. We may even see bipartisan energy efficiency legislation in 2014.

States like Oklahoma are expected to create new energy efficiency policies and California is expected to launch equipment efficiency standards, while both Maryland and New York will likely release energy savings targets.

At the municipal level, cities are also pursuing additional energy efficiency initiatives. An update to the Los Angeles building code is a notable highlight. As of the beginning of 2014, all new or refurbished buildings must be equipped with “cool roofs” (a cool roof is built of reflective rather than absorptive material). Compared to traditional roofs, these roofs can be as much as 50 degrees cooler on the roof surface, and can lower interior building temperatures by several degrees. Los Angeles is the first major American city to pass a cool-roof ordinance.

Green builder Hammer & Hand predicts that the popularity of net-zero energy buildings will begin to be replaced by net-positive energy buildings in 2014 and beyond. They attribute this trend to low cost solar panels, more electric vehicles and market mechanisms that reward onsite energy production. They also believe that we will see a policy shift in building energy codes, which will move away from prescriptive codes towards performance-based measures.

Hammer & Hand also forecast big things for CO2 heat pumps, US-made high performance windows, and ventilation system quality in 2014. They anticipate that the U.S. led move to make Passive House (a standard for energy efficiency in a building) more climate-specific will improve performance at both micro and macro levels. Finally, building energy efficiency initiatives in both Europe and China will help to drive the U.S. market.

According to a Greentech Media (GTM) interview with energy efficiency executives, in 2014 we can expect to see the growth of PACE financing, better data usage, operational savings, and new approaches to equipment integration. Here are the details of their thoughts on the biggest energy efficiency trends for 2014.

Clay Nesler of Johnson Controls sees growing momentum in commercial property-assessed clean energy (PACE) financing. A total of 31 states and the District of Columbia have passed legislation in support of commercial PACE programs. Nesler also cited Johnson Controls’ 2013 global survey, which found that executives with energy efficiency goals were 2.7 times more likely to increase energy efficiency investments in 2014 than organizations without such goals.

Mark Housely of Vigilent sees intelligent analytics as the salient focus for energy efficiency in 2014. As Housely explained, “Sensors have become both inexpensive and ubiquitous, efficiently providing great data in significant volumes. When combined with intelligent analytics, this data will provide unprecedented insight into data center energy use and operating behavior, enabling entirely new and likely unexpected ways of gaining efficiency and uptime safety.”

Bennett Fisher of Retroficiency shares Housely’s view and believes large-scale analytics deployments in commercial buildings will be the biggest energy efficiency trend of 2014. “In 2014, analytics will be applied to entire cities and states to transform efficiency forever,” Fisher said.

Swapnil Shah of FirstFuel says that with advances in education and awareness, energy efficiency will move beyond retrofits and towards operational savings. He points to low and no-cost operational savings which represent half the savings of commercial buildings. “Their adoption could spark a legion of energy-efficiency advocates in commercial buildings across the U.S.” said Shah.

Chuck McKinney of Aircuity says that the next big trend in 2014 will be “airside energy efficiency.” This trend will encompass several different strategies including improved economizer utilization, natural ventilation, and demand control ventilation. He points to the increasing availability of utility incentive programs for ventilation optimization. “[W]e expect demand control ventilation for airside efficiency to become one of the next standard offerings that utilities begin to drive as the next big category of energy efficiency measures,” McKinney said.

Paul Baier of Groom Energy indicated that LEDs will be the major trend of 2014. Two of the factors helping to drive widespread adoption are lighting controls, and increased adoption of enterprise energy management software.

The GTM article also asked energy efficiency executives what they thought were the most serious hurdles for efficiency in 2014. Their replies included ongoing financing barriers, education and accountability, and data applications.

Many of the hurdles are the flip side of the forces that are driving the growth of energy efficiency. A good illustration is Bennett Fisher who on the one hand believes that “analytics will… transform efficiency forever,” while at the same time he says that proper use of building data for analytics purposes will be a hurdle for efficiency in 2014.

Clay Nesler said the lack of funding is the greatest barrier to the growth of energy efficiency. Swapnil Shah concurs with Nesler and said that private investment and financing are the most serious hurdles for commercial efficiency. As Shah sees it, the fundamental challenge is the absence of uniform, reliable, and universal building performance data required to assess energy efficiency investments.

Paul Baier believes that inadequate energy accountability is a problem for many organizations in 2014. Firms may understand the importance of managing energy use, but there is a lack of clarity as to who is responsible for improving energy efficiency.

Mark Housely believes that there is a problem with what he calls a “legacy mindset” for data center operations. He believes the wrong-minded thinking of  “always on, all the time,” practice for operation hampers energy efficiency. He indicates that data centers are resistant to intelligently using monitoring sensors to “simultaneously reduce energy use and gain time and insight for more strategic, proactive planning.”

Energy efficiency programs will be expanded as will public awareness of both the need and the opportunities. Policies that improve building efficiency may also be improved including efficiency finance, portfolio standards, regulatory reform, as well as building labels, codes and standards.

Scaling the U.S. efficiency market in 2014 will be achieved through a combination of policy, technology, data, analytics, education, incentives and financing options.

Source: Global Warming is Real

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Green Bonds May be the Climate Success Story of 2014

The cleantech story of 2014 may very well be the growth of green bonds, (aka climate bonds). A growing number of financial institutions and state governments are issuing green bonds to generate funding for sustainable development and clean energy technology. This rapidly emerging financial instrument is capable of significantly advancing global efforts to combat climate change.

Green bonds may very well be able to meet the Herculean funding challenge we have ahead of us. It is widely understood that there are technological solutions that will reduce our emissions and keep the temperature from climbing beyond the widely agreed upon 2 degree Celsius upper threshold limit. However to get there we will require massive capital investments of 36 trillion by 2050 or an average of 1 trillion per year.

As recommended in the recently released Ceres' Clean Trillion Report, green bonds are an important vehicle to finance the low carbon economy. Green bonds and asset-backed securities are ideal for investors who including those who cannot afford to build a field of solar panels or wind turbines.

Bonds are a simple investment vehicle for both the private and institutional investor to access the green market. A growing consensus is building pertaining to the particular form such bonds will take. On January 13, 2014, a set of principles for green bonds was agreed upon by environmental groups, issuers and investors. Essentially these principles revolve around three primary recommendations well known to any SRI investor.

1. Transparency
2. Disclosure
3. Integrity

Support for these principles comes from a consortium of some of the biggest names in investment banking (Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Banking, JPMorgan Chase, BNP Paribas, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Mizuho Securities, Morgan Stanley, Rabobank and SEB).

According to Ceres chief Mindy Lubber, the growth in the green bonds is evidence that banks are starting to see the potential of low carbon infrastructure projects. The impetus for investment is not due to moral preoccupations, environmental activsm or social concern, it is being driven by self interest and bottom economics. If we are to succeed in providing the massive amounts of financing required we will have to leverage the power of the market. That means profit must be the incentive bringing investors to the table.

As Lubber said, “We need to move the climate debate from a treehugger issue to an on-balance sheet financial risk, and we need to act based on the economic risks and opportunities.”

The World Bank developed the Green Bond concept in 2007/2008. A total of more than $3.3 billion worth of the bonds have been issued by the Word Bank since their creation. In the past 18 months the market for these types of investments has doubled, from $5 billion to $9.5 billion.

In 2013 alone $10 billion of green bonds were issued, including $500m from Bank of America and a similar amount from HSBC. Investors in these green bonds include Zurich Insurance, JP Morgan and Daiwa Securities.

In 2013 International Finance Corp (IFC) issued $1 billion of green bonds that will finance climate-friendly projects in the developing world. Demand could not keep pace with supply and now the IFC plans to issue at least $1 billion in green bonds per year. The European Investment Bank set prices for its first Climate Awareness Bond which will finance renewable energy and energy efficiency. The state of Massachusetts also issued $1.1 billion of green bonds.

It has been widely reported that sustainability investments provides both a competitive advantage and better ROI. Likewise, for private and institutional investors, climate change is both an investment risk and an opportunity.

Investors are increasingly worried about the risks posed by global warming and green bonds offer an attractive opportunity for an increasingly climate risk averse investment community.

Socially responsible investing is growing well beyond its origins as a niche investment into a powerful financing vehicle. It is not overstating the point to say that green bonds could very well save the world from the ravages of climate change while helping investors to turn a tidy profit.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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