More Record Breaking Heat

Month after month, year after year, decade after decade we keep setting new temperature records. The world’s five warmest years have all occurred in the last five years and the period from 2010-2019 was the hottest decade ever recorded. We have seen 421 consecutive months of above average temperatures. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years and each successive decade was warmer than any preceding decade.

Last July was is the hottest month ever recorded and 2019 was the second hottest year on record. This was the 43rd consecutive year with above average global land and ocean temperatures. The warming trend continues into 2020. The first month of this year was the warmest January on record.

On February 6, Argentina’s Esperanza Base clocked an all time Antarctic heat record with a reading of 65 F (18.3 C). The beat the station’s previous high record of 63.5 F (17.5 C) in March 2015. Then, on February 9, a Brazilian-run research station on nearby Seymour Island logged  recorded a temperature of: 69.4 F (20.75 C).

Between the 1950s and the early 2000s, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed 5 degrees F, that is much faster than the rest of the world.  As reported in Mother Jones, the evolutionary ecologist Byron Adams of Brigham Young University says the extreme heat  puts the microscopic animals at the top of Antarctica's food chain at risk. Adams is currently surveying life on the continent including what he calls "the charismatic megafauna of continental Antarctica". Adams says there will be winners and loser in Antarctica but eventually he predicts that all will lose.  In a National Geographic article, Peter Neff, an Antarctic glaciologist at the University of Washington is quoted as saying  that he expects more of these warm events.

The adverse consequences will not be restricted to this remote continent. Melting Antarctic ice will significantly increase sea levels and cause flooding of major cities all around the world.. From 1992 to 2017, the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula nearly quintupled, from 7 to 33 billion tons a year.  Ice core data from the Antarctic reveal that recent levels of summer melting are unprecedented in the last thousand years.

"Once stitched together, these pictures of global weather conditions and atmospheric composition provide a comprehensive historical record of the Earth's climate that can be used to monitor how fast it is changing," according to C3S.  Meteorologists predict the warming trend will continue and we can expect to see more heat records broken in the comings months and years.

Climate scientists agree that human greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of this warming and the longer we wait to radically slash these emissions the worse it will get perhaps even triggering tipping points from which we will not be able to recover.

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2019 Adds More Data Points to the Constellation of Hot Data

The heat records keep adding to the mountain of data points that demonstrate that we are suffering from ever worsening global warming. This year (2019) is likely to be the second warmest year in the hottest decade on record. This year will also be remembered for the month of July which is the hottest month ever recorded. The months of June, September, October also broke records. November was the second hottest on record. Except for January of this year, each month in 2019 has been in the top three hottest on record.

We have seen 419 consecutive months of above average temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 42 years. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years. The most recent decade was the warmest in recorded history. Since the 1980s, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Nine of the ten warmest years have all occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years have all occurred in the past five years (NOAA's current global average yearly heat rankings: 1st: 2016, 2nd: 2015, 3rd: 2017, 4th: 2018, and 5th: 2014).

In 2019 we saw heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new normal. Europe suffered through brutal heatwaves that broke records in more than a dozen countries. According to the UN heatwaves were the deadliest weather hazard in the 2015-19 period, affecting all continents and setting new national temperature records.

Australia is enduring some of the worst heatwaves in modern history. Australia may be among the most severe but it is not the only place setting records in December. Iceland also saw its highest ever temperature readings early in December. In the U.S. temperatures in Michigan broke records with temperatures approaching 50 F. Other parts of the northern U.S. also saw extremely warm temperatures including states like Ohio and Wisconsin. Many parts of Russia are also experiencing warm weather and little or no snow.

The summer of 2019 was the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere and the period between June and August was the hottest in the 140-year climate record. September through November and January through November were each the second hottest on record.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provisional, State of the Global Climate report for 2019, the last five year period, "is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial (1850-1900) times and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015". This is important in light of the fact that the Paris Agreement warns us to keep temperatures from warming beyond the 1.5 C above pre-industrial norms. Terrestrial heat records are not our only concern. We have seen ocean heat records that may be the climate canary in the marine coalmine. We also need to appreciate the gravity of Arctic heatwaves.

The extreme heat has wide ranging impacts. It is know to be related to wildfires, drought, extreme weather, sea level rise and crop failures. As people suffer through these severe climate impacts, the actions of the federal governments in both the U.S. and Australia are woefully inadequate. The inaction of world leaders is is accelerating warming and we are running out of time to stop it.  This year is destined to be a make or break year.

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Hottest September on Record Ends the Hottest Summer on Record

In the wake of the hottest month on record (July) and the hottest summer on record, the fall season began with the hottest month of September ever recorded. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, September was not only the hottest month in the 140 years we have kept records, it was also the 417th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 35 years. The four warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 40 years. Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. This year is on track to be another record breaker.

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The U.S. Spends 10 Times more on Fossil Fuel Subsidies than Education

There is something profoundly wrong with countries that spend more on fossil fuels than they do on education. Fossil fuels are the leading cause of climate change while education is essential to the health and well being of both individuals and the societies they inhabit.

According to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the U.S. spends ten times more on various forms of fossil fuel subsidies than it does on education. The U.S. fossil fuel industry receives 649 billion in subsidies, that is ten times more tax dollars than the public education system.
To make matters worse, the Trump administration has sought to increase support for fossil fuels while decreasing support for education.

So how did we find ourselves in this insane predicament? The fossil fuel industry has used their tremendous influence and financial clout to pay legislators to protect their subsidies. They have bought legislators and helped to make Republicans the leading advocates of climate denial.  They even work to deceive children and prevent teachers from teaching the facts.

The fossil fuel industry's control of politicians is not a uniquely American phenomenon. In Canada the fossil fuel lobby largely controls the Conservative party.  The ruling Liberals are not immune, although they support climate action, they also give billions of dollars to the fossil fuel industry.

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New Record Set for the Hottest Month Ever

The summer of 2019 started with the hottest month of June and that was followed by July which is now being considered the hottest month in recorded history.

This is the first time in the 140 years that we have monitored global temperatures that we have seen a global average reading of 62.13 Fahrenheit. July 2019 beat the record set in July 2016.

"Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005—with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July. (NOAA)"

Temperature records are falling at an ever accelerating pace. The trend is unmistakable. July was not only the hottest month on record it was the 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in almost 35 years.

Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. There is no sign that this trend will abate any time soon as the first half of 2019 puts us on track for another record breaking year.

Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information  

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The World Keeps Warming as We are Running Out of Time

We are seeing heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new norm.  After a brutal heatwave in the middle of July, Europe suffered through yet another heatwave as the month drew to a close. More than a dozen countries in Europe recently broke heat records including Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK.

Global heat records are also being broken. After the hottest month of June on record, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that last month was the hottest July on record breaking the record set in 2016. According to Copernicus, every month this year is among the four warmest on record.

As reported by CNN, Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said last week that this July has "rewritten climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at the local, national and global level...This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now, and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action. Time is running out to rein in dangerous temperature increases with multiple impacts on our planet." 

This is but the latest indication that the world is warming at an unprecedented rate. While scientists caution against attributing any single weather event to the climate crisis, attribution studies and decades of hot data make a convincing case for a changing climate. We know with certainty that this picture is consistent with climate predictions related to rising levels of atmospheric GHGs.

As Dr Freja Vamborg from Copernicus told BBC News, "that trend is not likely to stop unless we do something about curbing greenhouse gas emissions."

The steady drumbeat of heatwaves and record breaking temperatures is a call to action. Even more than the temperature records being set in the rest of the world, the extreme warming in the Arctic is cause for concern. 

"This is yet more evidence that we're heading for a much hotter world if we allow carbon emissions to continue to rise," said Dr Katherine Kramer from Christian Aid.

As reported by the BBC's Matt McGrath, "there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges". The IPCC has indicated that to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper temperature threshold limit of 1.5C we will need to see consorted global action before the end of next year if we are to succeed in slashing carbon emissions by the required amount (45% by 2030). Last year's IPCC report indicated that to reach this goal global emissions must peak by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter. We are nowhere near where we need to be to make this happen.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

The key to combating the climate crisis will be the removal of Donald Trump from power in the U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November, 2020.  The fate of the Earth demands that all nations rise up to confront the existential threats posed by a rapidly warming world.

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Arctic Heatwaves are a Final Warning

When the coldest place on Earth is regularly breaking heat records it may be time to concede that the end may indeed be nigh. The world is heating up but nowhere is this warming trend more pronounced than in the Arctic. The Arctic is getting hotter three times as fast as the rest of the world. This year (2019) was the second or third warmest Arctic spring on record. At the end of March temperatures in parts of the Arctic were 22° C above seasonal norms smashing the all time temperature record for the month. In May it hit  29° C (84° F) in Arkhangelsk, Russia which is situated near the Arctic Ocean. In Koynas, an area east of Arkhangelsk, temperature exceeded 30.6° C (87° F).

In July temperatures reached a record 69.8° F in Alert, which is situated in the Qikiqtaaluk Region, in Nunavut, Canada. Located less than less 600 miles from the North Pole, this is the northernmost permanently inhabited place in the world. Heatwaves and heat records are becoming the new Arctic norm. In recent years there have been a slew of days when the mercury has climbed above 15° C (60° F). This is way above the seasonal average of 3° C (38° F).

Armel Castellan, a meteorologist at the Canadian environment ministry told AFP that these temperatures are "completely staggering" adding that this is only one data point among many.. "It’s quite phenomenal as a statistic, it’s just one example among hundreds and hundreds of other records established by global warming," Castellan said.

There is no end in sight as Canadian government models predict that the warm weather will continue in the Arctic throughout the rest of the summer.

The Arctic is critical for a number of reasons including its impact on the world's climate. A 2018 study indicated that Arctic warming interferes with the jet stream and increases the likelihood of heatwaves. The heatwaves in the Arctic have been attributed to irregular fluctuations in the jet stream. The wandering jet stream has also been implicated in this year's heatwaves in Canada, the U.S., Europe and Asia.

It is no coincidence that these heatwaves are taking place against the backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions. At 415 parts per million this is the highest level of atmospheric carbon in at least 800,000 years.

While this is bad enough there are even more cataclysmic implications of Arctic warming. There are at least 1.5 trillion tons of carbon frozen in the permafrost of the far north, if warming continues and the ice keeps melting, these gases could be released into the atmosphere canceling out even our most ambitious mitigation efforts. This could push the climate beyond tipping points from which we may not be able to recover.

We are faced with a stark choice, drastically slash greenhouse gas emissions or continue with business as usual and destroy civilization as we know it.

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Alaska is Warming Faster than the Rest of the U.S.

Record breaking heat is plaguing Alaska. According to NOAA the winter of 2019 in Alaska was the third-warmest on record. This spring there were unseasonably warm temperatures in the frontier state. March temperatures averaged 11° Celsius (C) above normal. On March 30, the Alaskan Arctic recorded temperatures that were 22° C above normal. On March 31 a mass of high pressure in the atmosphere called an "upper-level ridge" in Alaska set records for the month with temperatures in excess of 70° Fahrenheit (F). The so called "omega block" is an area of high pressure that forces the jet-stream to flow around it. Klawock reached 71° F on March 31 and at least five other locations in Alaska set monthly high temperature records.

The summer of 2019 has been unusually hot marked by at least three heatwaves and Alaska, the northernmost point of the U.S. is no exception. Early in July, the US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, registered record high temperatures. The Independence day holiday was marked by a record breaking heatwave in Alaska.

In fact the heat in Alaska has set a number of records in 2019. "The magnitude and persistence of the warmth is particularly striking to me this winter in parts of Alaska," said Zack Labe, a climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the University of California at Irvine.

The warm weather has thinned ice and this has claimed lives. People have fallen through the thinner ice and others are prevented from using ice which is traditionally an important means of transport in the colder months. To illustrate in late March when Bering Sea ice is usually at its maximum, it had largely disappeared. As of April the ice coverage was even lower than the unprecedented low in 2018 and by mid may it was almost entirely gone when it usually persists until June.

The disappearing sea ice and melting permafrost are making life impossible in some villages including Kivalina, Newtok and Shishmaref. Climate change is wreaking havoc on subsistence hunting and fishing both in terms of using ice as a transportation medium and the changing location of fish and game.

In addition to these local impacts, declining sea ice may also have implications for global weather patterns. It is clear that open water creates warmer air temperatures and this leads to more evaporation which fuels storms.

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United States Rocked by Summer Heat

Heatwaves are increasingly common and increasingly intense and long lasting in the U.S.  June was hot in the U.S. and so was July. The month of July started with a heatwave that enveloped almost half the country and just past the middle of the same month another heatwave saw even hotter temperatures.

While the June heatwave saw temperatures exceed 90 Fahrenheit (32° Celsius) in one third of the country, the second July heatwave saw more than half of the country enduring temperatures surpassing 100° F (38° C) when the humidity was factored.

On Saturday, July 20th new one-day temperature records were recorded in more than a half a dozen places including New York and Michigan. In this heatwave two-thirds of the Lower 48 states stifled under some of the hottest hottest weather in the U.S. since 2012.

These heatwaves are being compounded by high humidity which make it feel even hotter. In some places the combination of heat and humidity pushed heat indexes as high as 115° F (46° C). This heatwave was also notable for its warm overnight temperatures which NOAA data indicates has increased at twice the rate of summer days.

On the periphery of these heat domes is an area being described by meteorologists as the ring of fire. This is a zone where severe storms can develop. The heatwave and related storms caused power outages in areas ranging from Michigan to New York.

A slew of studies indicate these heatwaves are more likely due to global warming. The cause of the recent heatwaves in the U.S. and elsewhere is the jet-stream. A warmer world has caused the jet-stream to meander and slow down. According to a 2016 study in Nature Scientific Reports, led by climatologist Michael Mann, record temperature years are 600 to 130,000 times more likely thanks to anthropogenic climate change. Studies also show they are also longer and more intense.  Some of the most dire predictions indicate that by the end of the century the combination of of heat and humidity could push the heat index past a potentially fatal 131° F (55° C).

They will only get worse if we fail to do what common sense dictates. We must significantly reduce our greenhouse gases if we are to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper threshold limit. According to a recently published study, if we do not succeed in reigning in our greenhouse gases, parts of Florida and Texas could see temperatures over 100 F (38° C) for almost half the year.

A U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report states that under a high emissions scenario temperatures in the country will increase by 9° F in the last quarter of this century. The NCA report also states that temperature extremes are rising at an even faster rate than average temperatures. In a couple of decades five day heat waves could be 12° F warmer.

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The Deadly Collusion of Heat and Poverty

The combination of heat and poverty threatens the lives of millions of people in countries like India, China, Nepal, Zimbabwe.  If we do not substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, it will get much worse for everyone but a warmer planet will be particularly brutal for the world's poor.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) India is among the countries that will suffer the most from climate change. That is not only because of an increasing frequency and duration of heatwaves it is also because India is one of the most populace countries in the world with with one of the highest incidences of poverty. More than 86 percent of the country lives on less than $5.50 per day.

The plight of the poor in India is being made impossible by extreme heat. During the deadly heatwave in Bihar, India's most economically disadvantaged state, schools and colleges were closed for almost a week. The government urged people to stay indoors, however, that is difficult for those who need to work to survive.

According to MIT research much of South Asia may soon become unlivable. As explained by one of the researchers who took part in the research, the places in India where survivability may be difficult overlap with already highly vulnerable areas. This view was expressed by Eun Soon, assistant professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Asia is especially vulnerable because of its dense population and low incomes. People that rely on fishing and agriculture may not be able to earn a living.

"If we continue to produce the greenhouse gases at the current pace, one of the most populous regions in the world will not avoid the high risk of the deadly heat wave, facing an upper limit on human heat tolerance," Eun Soon said.

In poorer countries the average person may have no way of escaping the heat. This represents a serious threat to human health and for many people it may prove fatal. A 2018 World Health Organisation (WHO) report suggests that 38,000 people could die each year between 2030 and 2050 due to heat exposure. The report says the people in developing countries are among the most vulnerable.

Extreme heat is a serious problem in many ways. Some, like heatstroke and respiratory ailments are obvious, however, other lesser known impacts have been far more deadly. Water born illnesses due to a shortage of potable water is one of the biggest killers in the world. Since World War II, contaminated water has killed more people around the globe than all wars and other forms of violence combined.

Heat is also related to drought which directly impacts subsistence agriculture. More than 1 billion people have suffered from drought in the last decade. In 2017 the World Bank reported that since 2001 drought has wiped out enough produce to feed 81 million people every day for a year.

According to research, more than 1.3 billion people live on deteriorating agricultural land. Seventy-five percent of people living in poverty rely on agriculture and natural resources to survive. Two and a half billion smallholder farmers, herders and fisheries are vulnerable to climate change.

The lack of refrigeration in some areas means that things like food and medicine will spoil more quickly compounding the problems of hunger and health.

Extreme weather is on the rise due to global warming. The number of people affected by extreme weather has increased from 102 million in 2015 to 204 million in 2016. In 2017 extreme weather events cost a total of $335 billion and drove a 49 percent increase in economic losses over the previous decade. Such events are especially devastating for people who are already struggling with poverty.

The world's poor are on a collision course with an increasingly deadly climate. The sad irony is that those who did the least to cause this crisis are the ones who suffer the most. This is a social justice issue and the authors of this calamity are complicit.

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Asia is Heating Up and the South May Soon be Uninhabitable

Asia is one of the world's hottest continents and it is also the most populated continent in the world with 60 percent of the total population of the Earth. Like many other places around the world many of the 50 countries in Asia are suffering from heatwaves in 2019. In the period between April and June of this year India was hit with protracted heatwaves as was neighboring Pakistan and a number of other Asian countries including Vietnam, Kuwait, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

Vietnam was hit with a heatwave in April that included setting a record for the hottest day ever in the country. The Vietnam national weather service reported that Ha Tinh, a town about 320km south of Hanoi, recorded a high temperature of 43.4°C. This new national heat record breaks the record that was set just four years ago. What makes this particularly anomalous is the fact that the hottest months in Vietnam are usually in June and July.

By far the hottest place in Asia is Kuwait which recorded a temperature of 52.2°C in June. This temperature reading occurred in the region of Matraba in North Kuwait on June 9th. A recent study confirmed that Kuwait earns the unwanted distinction of Asia's hottest ever temperature with readings of 53.9°C. Pakistan came in second with a reading of 53.7°C in 2017.

More frequent and more intense heatwaves are part of a troubling global trend and countries in Asia are expected to be among the most adversely impacted.

According to research from MIT, in the worst case scenario temperature increases will soon breech the limits of survivability or come very close to it in most of South Asia. India's Chota Nagpur Plateau, in the northeast of the country, and Bangladesh are expected to be the worst hit. The Ganges River valley, India's northeast and eastern coast, northern Sri Lanka, and the Indus Valley of Pakistan may come close to surpassing these thresholds.

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Worsening Deadly Heatwaves in India

One of India's longest and most intense heatwaves has killed at least one hundred people and on July 17th at least 100 more died due to monsoon flooding and mudslides. The pre-monsoon heatwave lasted for more than a month and it was compounded by severe drought that has caused major water shortages. At its worst temperatures exceeded 50°C.

In April, central and northwestern India were suffering from a heatwave that was 6°C above the average. At the beginning of June Delhi hit temperatures of 48°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in that city for that month. The temperatures in Churu, set a new Indian record as they climbed above 50°C and helped to precipitate water shortages. The 9 million residents in the city of Chennai also faced water shortages. Some villages went without water for days. Approximately 40 percent of India has endured drought conditions in 2019.

Droughts are becoming more frequent and they are commonly being followed by sudden storms and floods. There have been radical changes to rainfall patterns in India over the course of the last ten years.

The situation in India is dire and getting worse. This has prompted questions about whether some parts of India will soon be incapable of supporting life.

An CNN article by Shekhar Chandra, a Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that the worsening heat will cause a humanitarian crisis as "large parts of the country potentially become too hot to be inhabitable".

Even if we do what we must to reduce emissions and minimize the impact of global warming, parts of India may still be uninhabitable as a certain amount of warming is baked into the system.

"Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures, parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability," Chandra said.

The rate at which warming is increasing in India is troubling. Chandra reports that in 2010 there were 21 official heatwaves across India, in 2018 there were 484. This represents a 23 fold increase in less than a decade.

According to AK Sahai and Sushmita Joseph, of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the situation is destined to get worse as heatwaves are expected to engulf the whole of India.

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Heat Waves and the Climate Crisis

The climate crisis is here and its hot. If you think things are bad today they will get a lot worse if we continue with business as usual. Heatwaves are being amplified by a rise in global temperatures. They are already becoming more frequent and severe and they will only get worse if we fail to act. We have amassed a vast store of data that proves conclusively that the world is getting warmer. Heatwaves are 4 degrees Celsius hotter than they were a century ago and the heatwaves hitting Europe are more frequent and more severe.

On average the 20 warmest years since 1880 have all been within the past 22 years. The years 2015-2018 make up the top four, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This was a record breaking Spring and early summer in Canada. Globally, last month was the hottest month of June in recorded history and Europe suffered through a record breaking heatwave at end of June.

Dr Friederike Otto, of the University of Oxford, said: "This is a strong reminder again that climate change is happening here and now. It is not a problem for our kids only."

As reported by the Guardian, attribution studies suggest heat waves are much more likely and severe due to climate change. "There have been more than 230 attribution studies to date around the world and these have found that 95% of heatwaves were made more more likely or worse by climate change. For droughts, 65% were definitely affected climate change, while the figure for floods was 57%."

Global heat records are being set five times as often today as they would in a stable climate. "Heat waves are on the rise," Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. "This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and gas," Rahmstorf, told the Associated Press.

In about three decades, London's climate will feel a lot like Barcelona's, including severe droughts, Madrid will feel more like Marrakesh, Morocco; Seattle will feel like San Francisco; and New York will feel like Virginia Beach, Virginia. These predictions come from a study that estimated 77 percent. of cities around the world will see their climate conditions change drastically.

Scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: "If the observed trend in heatwaves continues, [even] at the Paris goal of 2C of warming a heatwave like this will be the norm in June. Both observations and models show a strong trend towards stronger heatwaves. However, the observed trend is stronger than the modeled one, and we do not yet know why." We have already seen warming of 1 degree Celsius.

Europe's heatwave at the end of June 2019 was caused by a mass of hot air coming from the Sahara Desert and as with the extreme heat recorded in Canada an anomalous jet stream is being implicated.

The increasing prevalence and severity is heat waves is a direct corollary of climate change. Studies predict that deadly heat waves are going to become far more common and far more serious than they are today. As reported by NBC News, Steve Vavrus, a senior scientist at the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison said that although the situation is perilous there is still time to do something about it.

"Everywhere is vulnerable and we’re starting to load the dice more with slow-moving and meandering jet stream patterns," Vavrus said. "Extreme weather events are becoming the new normal and they are lasting longer than they have in the past."

Vavrus explained that reducing the world’s carbon emissions would slow global warming and return the jet stream to its more typical speed and pattern. In the absence of consorted action to reduce emissions, extreme weather like heat waves may prove to be among the biggest problems we face in the coming decades.

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What is Causing Europe's Heatwaves?

The recent heatwave in Europe included the hottest day ever in France. The new hottest single day temperature in France is now 45.9C (114.6F). Germany, Poland and Czech Republic also set records at the end of June. Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Italy also experienced heat waves. Europe's intense heat waves and record setting temperatures are noteworthy because we can now say with a degree of confidence that this warming is at least five times more likely due to global warming. Europe's five hottest summers since 1500 have all been in this Century.

Using data from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European satellite agency said the average temperatures on the continent at the end of June were more than 2C above normal. Temperatures were 6-10C above normal over most of France, Germany and northern Spain.

While linking a single event to global warming is complicated, the World Weather Attribution group reports that average temperatures in France between 26-28 June were very likely happening as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

"We knew June was hot in Europe, but this study shows that temperature records haven’t just been broken. They have been obliterated," University of Reading's Professor Hannah Cloke, said. "This is the hottest June on record in Europe by a country mile, and the warmest June we have ever seen globally."

Heatwaves cause a host of problems. In parts of France water restrictions were imposed and Paris closed schools and postponed exams. Combustion engine vehicles were prevented from entering the city to decrease smog and fire hydrants were opened to help people cool down.

Health Minister Agnès Buzyn warned that "everyone is at risk" and France's weather service issued an unprecedented red alert for four areas with the rest of the country on orange alert. The Italian ministry of health has reported emergency levels of heat in 16 cities.

In Germany, the extreme heat caused highway surfaces to start to melt and all across Europe there has been a spike in electricity consumption as people turn on their fans and their air conditioners. Poland  set two records, one for high temperatures and one for energy consumption.

Heatwaves can be also be both expensive and deadly. The 2003 heatwave caused financial losses of almost $15 billion and killed over 30,000 people in Europe.

Europe's heatwave at the end of June 2019 was caused by a mass of hot air coming from the Sahara Desert. As with the extreme heat recorded in Canada an anomalous jet stream is being blamed.

"Although this was exceptional, we are likely to see more of these events in the future due to climate change," Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of C3S said.

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Record Breaking Heat in the Great White North

Image credit: The Weather Channel

We have seen heat records broken across Canada in the first half of 2019. Extreme heat has been present from the west coast to the east coast and the far north. The start of spring 2019 smashed 79 Canadian heat records including an all time record for Yoho Lake in the Northwest Territories. Environment Canada pointed to anomalies in the jet stream and said this kind of widespread heat in March hasn’t been seen in a quarter century.

In June Victoria shattered a 121-year-old heat record and Kelowna broke a 145-year-old temperature record in BC. All together Surging temperatures broke a total of 20 heat records in southern BC.

In July most of Eastern Canada was suffering from extreme heat and in the Maritimes this heat wave broke records. Moncton, Fredericton and Halifax all broke records. PEI also smashed a heat record. Even Nunavut, the world's most northerly community, is experiencing a record-breaking heat wave.

As reported by CBC, records have been falling by large margins. "That's what we're seeing more often," said David Phillips, Environment Canada's chief climatologist. "It's not just half a degree or a 10th of a millimeter. It's like hitting a ball out of the ballpark. It is so different than what the previous record was...It's really quite spectacular, This is unprecedented." Phillips said the models predict that there is more to come. More is to come.

Phillips also suggests the record heat may be related to anomalies in the jet stream. "With temperatures you've never seen before, you can't dismiss it as not having a climate change component," Philips said. Although individual weather recordings should not be confused with climate, decades of hot data are making an irrefutable case for a warming world.

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The Ocean / Climate Nexus

Our oceans provide two-thirds of the planet's atmospheric oxygen, absorb more than 90 percent of the Earth's excess heat energy and more than a quarter of the globe's anthropogenic carbon emissions. Warmer and more acidic oceans are decimating marine ecosystems, killing coral, kelp, shellfish starfish and plankton. Warmer oceans also have adverse implications for global weather including more intense storms.

Balmy sea-surface temperatures expedite terrestrial warming and reduce the time we have to reign in climate change causing greenhouse gas emissions. If we do not stop spewing carbon and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere we are on track to see anywhere from five to seven degrees of warming in the coming decades.

Warmer seas mean less ice and this can further contribute to the warming trend. According to National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the monthly June ice extent over the last 20 years shows a decline of 4.08 percent per decade. The average extent for June 2019 was the second lowest in the satellite record. One of the implications of melting sea ice is a weakened jet stream which wreaks havoc with the weather in much of the world.

One of the most troubling corrolaries of warmer seas involves the breakdown of the ocean food chain.  Plankton, the basis of the oceans food chain, is dying and this is causing low oxygen dead zones where nothing can survive.

According to research published in the journal Bulletin of Mathematical Biology from the University of Leicester in the UK, rising ocean temperatures is causing massive reductions in plankton populations. Since plankton is responsible for two-thirds of atmospheric oxygen, this could cause the Earth’s oxygen levels to fall dramatically, and this in turn could kill massive numbers of people and animals.

The policy implications are clear, governments need to take unprecedented action to keep ocean temperatures as low as possible.

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More Hot Data Contributes to Existential Concerns

The heat records being set around the globe foreshadow a world where new record setting high temperatures are commonplace. According to the EU‘s satellite agency, last month was the hottest June ever recorded.

Europe has been suffering through excruciating heat waves and countries including France have set all time heat records exceeding 45C. In parts of Asia including Kuwait and India temperatures are exceeding 50 Celsius.

While seasonal temperature spikes are not evidence of global warming, they are part of a clear and unmistakable trend. There have been a succession of hot months in 2019 including the Earth's fourth-hottest May, and the second-hottest April and March. February's global average temperature was the fifth hottest on record and January was the third hottest.

In the period between December 2018 and February 2019 there was record heat in much of Australia, parts of northeastern Brazil, the Southern Ocean, East China and the Barents Seas and southeastern Pacific Ocean. It is not just that we have seen hot temperatures in 2019, this is part of a decades long warming trend.

The last time be saw monthly temperatures that fell below the mean was February 1985. Decades of hot data including 35 years or more than 410 months of above average temperatures makes the warming trend impossible to refute. We are breaking temperature records with increasing regularity with the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 1998.

Warmer weather also causes more precipitation, more storms and more flooding. The United States has had to deal with some intense flooding in 2019. We have seen protracted floods in the Midwest, and more recently flash flooding in Washington and Louisiana. Heatwaves have even grounded planes, buckled train tracks, and led to school closures.

It is not accurate to say that this is the new normal as it will likely get worse. According to new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change we can expect to see more temperature records being broken in fact we can expect a succession of record breaking heatwaves in most of the world.

These researchers also make it clear that these temperature increases are directly tied to rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity. They also indicate that these higher temperatures make air pollution worse and make water more scarce leading to agricultural failures, malnutrition and starvation.

The scientists conclude that their modeling predicts high monthly mean temperature records will be set in 58 percent of the world every year. The highest monthly mean temperature increases will occur in developing countries and small island states.  Low lying countries like the Marshall Islands are already facing existential threats as they are fighting to stay above the waves having faced repeated inundations in 2019.

Climate change is is contributing to species extinction and represents a significant threat to human life. Extreme heat fuels both drought and wildfires but heatwaves are the most deadly form of extreme weather and this summer's heatwaves are no exception. People have succumbed to heat stroke, breathing issues, heart attacks, and kidney problems. According to conservative estimates from the W.H.O. a quarter of a million people are expected to die annually between 2030 and 2050 due to climate change.

Current temperatures show a 1.3 C global average temperature increase. The upper threshold limit agreed to in the Paris Climate Accord is between 1.5C and 2C. Other studies show that even if we keep temperatures from rising beyond 2C. more than a billion people will be forced to relocate and at least two billion more will suffer from food and water scarcity. At 3C. coastal cities would be inundated and as much as 90 percent of humanity could die.

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Solar and Wind Investment Overview

For the fifth year in a row global investments in clean energy exceeded $300 billion in 2018. According to BNEF, last year saw an 8 percent reduction in clean energy investment compared to 2017, the first time we have seen a year over year decline in a long time.

Although last year set a record for new photovoltaic capacity surpassing 100GW for the first time, the sector also fell 24 percent to $130.8 billion in 2018 due at least in part to declining capital costs. The Chinese decision to restrict access to the feed in tariff contributed to a 53 percent reduction in Chinese solar ($40.4 billion).


Some of the biggest solar projects took place in the MENA region, with Morrocco topping the list with the $2.4 billion, 800MW NOORm Midelt PV and solar thermal portfolio in Morocco.

Wind investments rose 3 percent to 128 billion and offshore wind had it second best year ever attracting $25.7 billion, up 14 percent over the previous year. Europe's $3.3 billion, 950MW Moray Firth East array in the North Sea was the biggest but there were five other billion plus offshore wind projects in Europe. However, China is emerging as the biggest wind market. Onshore wind saw $100.8 billion worth of global investment in 2018, up 2 percent. Onshore wind projects were led by the $1.4 billion 706MW Enel Green Power South Africa portfolio.

China was the global clean energy investment leader, but 2018 was down 32 percent compared to the year before due to declining values.

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The Benefits of Climate Action Far Outweigh the Costs

Despite problems with existing economic models and resistance from political and business leaderships the logic of climate action is irrefutable. The merits of climate action is born out by a slew of studies and rudimentary math. 

When we factor the costs of environmental damage it is difficult to come up with an assessment that does not convincingly demonstrate the value of climate action over business as usual. Here are three separate assessments that come to the same fundamental conclusion.

In a 2018 Vox article David Roberts concludes, "these days, it has gotten almost impossible to make sustainability look like a bad deal." He points to the fact that as the cost of business as usual keep rising, the costs of sustainable alternatives keep declining.

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets

In a 2018 Guardian article Damian Carrington says that climate action will save the world $30 trillion in damages which is far more than the costs of cutting carbon emissions. Citing an article published in Nature Carrington writes, "Data from the last 50 years shows clearly that when temperatures rise, GDP and other economic measures fall in most nations, due to impacts on factors including labour productivity, agricultural output and health."

"By the end of the century, we find the world will be about 3% wealthier if we actually achieve the 1.5C target relative to 2C target," said Marshall Burke, assistant professor at Stanford University in the US, who led the new work. "In dollar terms, this represents about $30tn in cumulative benefits...The estimated cost of meeting the 1.5C target is about $0.5tn over the next 30 years," he said: "So our evidence suggest the benefits of meeting the targets vastly outweigh the costs...We also calculated what’s going to be the additional economic cost if we hit 3C instead of 2C. This will cost the globe an additional 5-10% of GDP, relative to 2C; that is tens of trillions of dollars. These are very large numbers," Marshall said.

The actual costs are likely to be much higher as study did not include the costs of climate change that are hard to quantify.

Cambridge University’s Judge Business School

In a 2015 Think Progress article Joe Romm wrote that climate action avoids over $400 Trillion in damages. Romm was citing an analysis from Cambridge University’s Judge Business School. The author, Chris Hope, an expert on the economics of climate change, told Romm that the "corresponding value for a low emissions scenario is about $80 trillion." The cost of melting permafrost alone represents $43 trillion in damages. "So climate action remains a figurative no brainer," Romm said "and climate inaction remains a literal no-brainer."

Although it may seem obvious, straight forward math is confounded by disinformation from those with dirty energy agendas and misinformation from short term thinkers. However, even those with tiny time horizons will find that there are short and medium term savings that come with climate action.

New Climate Economy Report

Roberts said a global shift to sustainability would save us $26 trillion by 2030. He cites the 2018 New Climate Economy Report that says, "We can have growth that is strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive." The report looked at energy, cities, food/land use, water, and industry/innovation/transportation and indicated that almost $90 trillion will be invested in infrastructure in the next decade.

"[S]hifting to sustainable technologies and techniques would save trillions of dollars through 2030 in increased productivity, innovation, and reduced health costs. Sustainability costs less," Roberts wrote about the report. "Policymakers worldwide need to price carbon, roll back fossil fuel subsidies (and other policies that impede sustainability), invest in sustainable infrastructure, harness the private sector, and protect vulnerable communities." 

The report also indicates that current models and projections underplay the benefits of transitioning to a sustainable low carbon economy. "Current economic models are deeply inadequate in capturing the opportunities of such a transformational shift, or the grave dangers of climate inaction," the report states. "We need a new class of economic models that can capture the powerful dynamics at play, including transformative technological advances, preservation of essential natural capital, and the full health benefits of cleaner air and a safer climate, including the containment of pandemic diseases."

We have the required solutions but we need the will to enact policy to scale them up.  In addition to problems with our economic models we are also contending with a failure of leadership. "The barrier — now, as always... is sufficient political and business leadership," the report said.


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The Trump Administration is Hurting US Renewables and Imperiling the Planet

Renewable energy now accounts for around 17 percent of US electricity generation and where it not for the Trump administration that number would be higher. Trump has slowed the growth of clean power and hurt the renewable energy industry. At least 20,000 solar jobs have been lost in the first two years of the Trump presidency. After being ravaged by tariffs earlier in Trump's tenure, the US solar energy industry now has to contend with another round of tariffs on imported solar components. This is at odds fact based policy. Scientists tell us that to keep temperatures from rising above the upper threshold limit we will need to transition away from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy.  Instead of supporting clean power the Trump administration is propping up dirty energy.

While nations like the UK are abandoning coal the Trump administration is protecting the US coal industry from market realities. This administration has moved heaven and earth for the fossil fuel industry. They cleared the way for more oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters and they killed federal support for energy efficiency.

Trump and most Republican legislators are woefully ignorant about renewable energy. This may be part of a calculated disinformation campaign or it may reflect their genuine stupidity, either way it obscures the fact that fossil fuels can be replaced by renewable energy.

Republican talking points disparaging renewables are inaccurate. The most commonly mentioned criticism involves intermittency. However, energy storage technologies mean that we can have access to clean renewable energy even when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining.

Despite municipal and state action, the involvement of the federal government is crucial. Mike O’Boyle, the co-author of the report for Energy Innovation, recognizes the importance of all levels of governments to scale renewables. "In order to get an affordable, clean energy system we need both federal and state actors involved," The Guardian quotes O’Boyle as saying.

Trump's support for fossil fuels and rejection of renewable energy translates to more greenhouse gases. His decision to kill climate regulations and initiatives like Obama's Clean Power Plan mean that US energy based emissions are not expected to decline until at least 2050.

The current administration's refusal to embrace science based energy policy increases the likelihood of more severe climate impacts.

If we are to avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis we will need to quickly transition away from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. However, this will not happen in the US for at least a year and a half.

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