Showing posts with label cyclones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cyclones. Show all posts

Mother Nature Strikes Back: A Review of Extreme Weather in 2016

Extreme weather is a deadly corollary of climate change. A UN study found that between 1995 and 2015, 600,000 people died from natural disasters. Global warming is known to exacerbate the intensity of extreme weather events. We are already seeing clear evidence of climate change playing a role in a growing number of natural disasters. Thanks to advances in attribution science we can now see the role that climate change plays in driving a succession of increasingly severe extreme weather events.

According to a report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, floods accounted for 30 percent of the world's top ten natural disasters in 2015. In 2015, three of the world's top 10 natural disasters by the number of fatalities were floods. In first place was heat waves, accounting for four of the top 10.

The warming trend and associated extreme weather events continued in 2016, which has replaced 2015 as the hottest year on record. Decades of hot data are the harbingers of a climate catastrophe. As published in Insurance Journal, here is a list of some of the extreme weather events we experienced in 2016
  • Flooding in China’s Yangtze Basin from May through August killed at least 475 people and caused $28 billion in losses.
  • A drought in India that started earlier in the year and stretched through June caused about $5 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in West Virginia and the mid-Atlantic in June killed 23 people and damaged more than 5,500 buildings.
  • Typhoon Nepartak hit the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July, killing 111 people and causing at least $1.5 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in northeast China in July killed 289 people and caused about $5 billion in damage.
  • Temperatures reached 129 degrees (54 degrees Celsius) in Kuwait and Iraq in July.
  • Flooding in Louisiana in August killed 13 people and caused around $15 billion in damage.
  • Flooding in Sudan and South Sudan in July and August killed 129 people and damaged more than 41,000 buildings.
  • A long heat wave coupled with high humidity afflicted the U.S. South and East. Savannah, Georgia, had 69 straight days when the temperature hit 90 or higher.
  • Typhoon Lionrock hit Japan, China and Korea in August and killed 77 people while damaging more than 20,000 buildings.
  • Spain set a record for the hottest September temperature recorded in Europe, with marks of 114 and 115 degrees.
  • Localities in the United States broke nearly 15,000 daily records for hot nighttime minimum temperatures from May into September.
Hurricane Matthew wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Although not as severe the effects of the Hurricane were felt in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. What makes this hurricane noteworthy is that advances in attribution science are making it easier to see the role played by climate change.  The relationship between extreme weather and climate change was explored in a recent Scientific American article.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing about extreme weather in the US is the GOP's refusal to accept reality. Republicans ignored unprecedented heat and record breaking precipitation while boldly revealing policy platforms that will exacerbate the situation. The GOP's love of fossil fuels and disdain for climate action is equaled only by their hatred for science.

In the span of six months two once in 500 year storms have devastated Louisiana. Similar catastrophic flooding has gripped many pats of the world in 2016 including China, India, Macedonia, Pakistan and Sudan.

As reported by Damian Carrington in a Washington Post article, this warming trend has dire implications for extreme weather which costs lives, destroys crops and contributes to food insecurity.

"The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue...Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen...Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular," Carrington said.

The WMO said human-induced global warming had contributed to at least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.

"It is almost as if mother nature is making a statement," said climate scientist Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2016 extreme weather and climate events have adversely affected agriculture impacting the food security of more than 60 million people.

"Climate change is not like other issues that can be postponed from one year to the next,” he said. “The US and world are already behind; speed is of the essence because climate change and its impacts are coming sooner and with greater ferocity than anticipated."

The situation is dire as indicated by new research published at the end of 2016. The findings are from a Stanford University doctoral dissertation by Carolyn Snyder, a climate policy official at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As reported in Nature the research suggests the Earth is currently warmer than it has been in 100,000 years. The conclusion of the Snyder study suggests that current levels of fossil fuel use indicate the Earth is 'locked into' temperatures not Seen in 2 million years. The research suggests that we may see temperature rises of up to 9° Celsius.

As reported in an accompanying Nature article: "Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia." If Trump delivers on his promise to extract and burn even more fossil fuels the situation could be even worse that predicted by the research.

"The kinds of extreme weather we have seen over the past year or so will be routine all too soon, but then even worse records will be set," Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s leading climatologists, told Think Progress' Joe Romm.

Related
The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)
Review of Extreme Weather in 2015
Growing Levels of GHGs are Warming the Planet and Contributing to Disasters
Extreme Weather and Existential Reflections on Life in the Anthropocene
Strong Body of Evidence for a Changing Climate
Extreme Weather Makes a Convincing Case for Climate Change

Infographic - Extreme Weather: A Survival Guide

Infographic - Extreme Weather: A Survival Guide
Coping With Extreme Weather: A Survival Guide

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Global Extreme Weather 2013 Timeline (Tiki-Toki)

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In this post Tiki-Toki reviews some of the extreme weather events that have occurred around the globe in 2013. The pattern for extreme events that we saw in 2012 continued into 2013. In early 2013, parts of the Southern Hemisphere witnessed record-high temperatures, with Australia experiencing its hottest month in January 2013 since record-keeping began more than a century ago. Meanwhile, the central and northeastern United States saw record snowfall and blizzard conditions. Precipitation continued to be extreme throughout the spring, with Spain seeing its wettest March on record and China experiencing its wettest May since 1973. At the same time, New Zealand saw its worst drought in three decades, and California experienced its driest year-to-date. To illustrate this pattern, the World Resources Institute put together a timeline of extreme climate and weather events in 2013, which builds on the previous 2012 timeline.

Source: Tiki-Toki

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Two Extreme Weather Reports Presented at COP 19/CMP 9 Support Climate Finance

Two extreme weather reports released at COP 19/CMP 9 lend support to the need for climate finance. The UN has indicates that this year was one of the warmest years on record and a Global Climate Risk Index shows that the countries most vulnerable to extreme weather are also some of the poorest. The top ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. On Wednesday November 10 the UN declared that the first nine months of 2013 were the seventh warmest on record since records began in 1850. 2013 is tied with 2003 with an average global land and ocean surface temperatures 0.48C above the 1961-1990 average. WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud indicated that growing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) mean that warming is inevitable.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) further announced that there is a trend of extreme weather and they stated that the impact of storms like Typhoon Haiyan are being exacerbated by rising sea levels. While it is impossible to attribute an individual weather event to climate change, that should not be taken to mean that there is no relationship. They clearly stated that rising seas make coastal populations more vulnerable to storm surges. Seas have risen by about 20 cms (8 inches) in the past century.

In addition to Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most intense storms in history, the WMO report referenced extreme weather events like Australia's 2013 heatwave, and widespread floods (from Sudan to Europe). Japan was also mentioned due the fact that 2013 saw the nation's warmest summer on record.

As explained in the recent IPCC AR5 report, scientists predict with increasing certainty (95% up from 90%) that humans are the cause of global warming. The report also indicates that in a warming world we can expect more extreme weather along with rising seas.

The Global Climate Risk Index index was assembled by a think tank called Germanwatch with data from Munich Re, it indicates that some of the poorest nations are also the most vulnerable to extreme weather. The index lists the ten countries most affected by climate change in 2012. Ironically, the countries that are suffering most have contributed the least GHGs.

Here is the 2012 list ranked in order of risk:

Haiti
the Philippines
Pakistan
Madagascar
Fiji
Serbia
Samoa
Bosnia/Herzegovina
Russia
Nigeria

Here is the list ranking long terms risks (1993 - 2012):

Honduras
Myanmar
Haiti
Nicaragua
Bangladesh
Vietnam
the Philippines
the Dominican Republic and Mongolia (equal 8th)
Thailand and Guatemala (equal 10th)

The Philippines and Haiti made both lists. As developing countries, these nations are ill equipped to deal with extreme weather. Lending support to the need for climate finance, a subject that many hope will garner support at this years climate negotiations in Warsaw.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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We're living in a warmer world, we're living in a melting world, and sea levels are rising. Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, says while we may not be seeing evidence of more frequent weather events in the US at present but we are seeing clear evidence of global warming and this is known to increase extreme weather events.

Superstorm Sandy slammed into North America in late October 2012 and approximately one year later Superstorm Haiyan, perhaps the strongest storm ever to make landfall, struck Asia. People are asking questions about extreme weather and the relationship to climate change. Fueled by warmer seas caused by global warming these destructive weather anomalies are certain to increase as the world gets warmer.

We know for sure that extreme weather comes with extreme cost and according to Nasa scientists the situation will get worse as the planet warms.

"But what is true is that in this country, in the United States, we live in many areas with great risk to drought, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, and so part of the dialogue is not only extreme weather and global warming, but is the amount of risk we can tolerate. Now looking to the future, global change, global warming - it definitely is accelerating and it will have an impact on extreme weather, but at this point, not much."

Click here to see more of NASA's answers to questions on climate science.

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Here are the stories of two women who have played key roles in post Sandy recovery. Here is a very brief review of a few highlights from hurricane Sandy as well as a caution about extreme weather caused by climate change.

As Governor Cuomo said, "There is a wake-up call here and there is a lesson to be learned, there is a reality has existed for a long time that we have been blind to and that is climate change, extreme weather, call it what you will and our vulnerability to it, it was true ten years ago it was true five years ago it is undeniable today."

Terri Bennett, a founder of Respond and Rebuild, one of the first groups to help low-income residents of the Rockaways rebuild after Superstorm Sandy, and also focused on providing free mold remediation that eventually inspired the city’s similar program, and Jessica Roff, a founder of Restore the Rock, a nonprofit created by Sandy volunteers who met while working out of a space in the Rockaways called YANA, or You Are Never Alone, where they operated a free health clinic, legal clinic and trained and dispatched hundreds of volunteers.

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