More Record Breaking Heat

Month after month, year after year, decade after decade we keep setting new temperature records. The world’s five warmest years have all occurred in the last five years and the period from 2010-2019 was the hottest decade ever recorded. We have seen 421 consecutive months of above average temperatures. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years and each successive decade was warmer than any preceding decade.

Last July was is the hottest month ever recorded and 2019 was the second hottest year on record. This was the 43rd consecutive year with above average global land and ocean temperatures. The warming trend continues into 2020. The first month of this year was the warmest January on record.

On February 6, Argentina’s Esperanza Base clocked an all time Antarctic heat record with a reading of 65 F (18.3 C). The beat the station’s previous high record of 63.5 F (17.5 C) in March 2015. Then, on February 9, a Brazilian-run research station on nearby Seymour Island logged  recorded a temperature of: 69.4 F (20.75 C).

Between the 1950s and the early 2000s, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed 5 degrees F, that is much faster than the rest of the world.  As reported in Mother Jones, the evolutionary ecologist Byron Adams of Brigham Young University says the extreme heat  puts the microscopic animals at the top of Antarctica's food chain at risk. Adams is currently surveying life on the continent including what he calls "the charismatic megafauna of continental Antarctica". Adams says there will be winners and loser in Antarctica but eventually he predicts that all will lose.  In a National Geographic article, Peter Neff, an Antarctic glaciologist at the University of Washington is quoted as saying  that he expects more of these warm events.

The adverse consequences will not be restricted to this remote continent. Melting Antarctic ice will significantly increase sea levels and cause flooding of major cities all around the world.. From 1992 to 2017, the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula nearly quintupled, from 7 to 33 billion tons a year.  Ice core data from the Antarctic reveal that recent levels of summer melting are unprecedented in the last thousand years.

"Once stitched together, these pictures of global weather conditions and atmospheric composition provide a comprehensive historical record of the Earth's climate that can be used to monitor how fast it is changing," according to C3S.  Meteorologists predict the warming trend will continue and we can expect to see more heat records broken in the comings months and years.

Climate scientists agree that human greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of this warming and the longer we wait to radically slash these emissions the worse it will get perhaps even triggering tipping points from which we will not be able to recover.

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2019 Adds More Data Points to the Constellation of Hot Data

The heat records keep adding to the mountain of data points that demonstrate that we are suffering from ever worsening global warming. This year (2019) is likely to be the second warmest year in the hottest decade on record. This year will also be remembered for the month of July which is the hottest month ever recorded. The months of June, September, October also broke records. November was the second hottest on record. Except for January of this year, each month in 2019 has been in the top three hottest on record.

We have seen 419 consecutive months of above average temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 42 years. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years. The most recent decade was the warmest in recorded history. Since the 1980s, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Nine of the ten warmest years have all occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years have all occurred in the past five years (NOAA's current global average yearly heat rankings: 1st: 2016, 2nd: 2015, 3rd: 2017, 4th: 2018, and 5th: 2014).

In 2019 we saw heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new normal. Europe suffered through brutal heatwaves that broke records in more than a dozen countries. According to the UN heatwaves were the deadliest weather hazard in the 2015-19 period, affecting all continents and setting new national temperature records.

Australia is enduring some of the worst heatwaves in modern history. Australia may be among the most severe but it is not the only place setting records in December. Iceland also saw its highest ever temperature readings early in December. In the U.S. temperatures in Michigan broke records with temperatures approaching 50 F. Other parts of the northern U.S. also saw extremely warm temperatures including states like Ohio and Wisconsin. Many parts of Russia are also experiencing warm weather and little or no snow.

The summer of 2019 was the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere and the period between June and August was the hottest in the 140-year climate record. September through November and January through November were each the second hottest on record.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provisional, State of the Global Climate report for 2019, the last five year period, "is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial (1850-1900) times and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015". This is important in light of the fact that the Paris Agreement warns us to keep temperatures from warming beyond the 1.5 C above pre-industrial norms. Terrestrial heat records are not our only concern. We have seen ocean heat records that may be the climate canary in the marine coalmine. We also need to appreciate the gravity of Arctic heatwaves.

The extreme heat has wide ranging impacts. It is know to be related to wildfires, drought, extreme weather, sea level rise and crop failures. As people suffer through these severe climate impacts, the actions of the federal governments in both the U.S. and Australia are woefully inadequate. The inaction of world leaders is is accelerating warming and we are running out of time to stop it.  This year is destined to be a make or break year.

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Hottest September on Record Ends the Hottest Summer on Record

In the wake of the hottest month on record (July) and the hottest summer on record, the fall season began with the hottest month of September ever recorded. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, September was not only the hottest month in the 140 years we have kept records, it was also the 417th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 35 years. The four warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 40 years. Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. This year is on track to be another record breaker.

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New Record Set for the Hottest Month Ever

The summer of 2019 started with the hottest month of June and that was followed by July which is now being considered the hottest month in recorded history.

This is the first time in the 140 years that we have monitored global temperatures that we have seen a global average reading of 62.13 Fahrenheit. July 2019 beat the record set in July 2016.

"Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005—with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July. (NOAA)"

Temperature records are falling at an ever accelerating pace. The trend is unmistakable. July was not only the hottest month on record it was the 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in almost 35 years.

Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. There is no sign that this trend will abate any time soon as the first half of 2019 puts us on track for another record breaking year.

Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information  

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The World Keeps Warming as We are Running Out of Time

We are seeing heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new norm.  After a brutal heatwave in the middle of July, Europe suffered through yet another heatwave as the month drew to a close. More than a dozen countries in Europe recently broke heat records including Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK.

Global heat records are also being broken. After the hottest month of June on record, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that last month was the hottest July on record breaking the record set in 2016. According to Copernicus, every month this year is among the four warmest on record.

As reported by CNN, Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said last week that this July has "rewritten climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at the local, national and global level...This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now, and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action. Time is running out to rein in dangerous temperature increases with multiple impacts on our planet." 

This is but the latest indication that the world is warming at an unprecedented rate. While scientists caution against attributing any single weather event to the climate crisis, attribution studies and decades of hot data make a convincing case for a changing climate. We know with certainty that this picture is consistent with climate predictions related to rising levels of atmospheric GHGs.

As Dr Freja Vamborg from Copernicus told BBC News, "that trend is not likely to stop unless we do something about curbing greenhouse gas emissions."

The steady drumbeat of heatwaves and record breaking temperatures is a call to action. Even more than the temperature records being set in the rest of the world, the extreme warming in the Arctic is cause for concern. 

"This is yet more evidence that we're heading for a much hotter world if we allow carbon emissions to continue to rise," said Dr Katherine Kramer from Christian Aid.

As reported by the BBC's Matt McGrath, "there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges". The IPCC has indicated that to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper temperature threshold limit of 1.5C we will need to see consorted global action before the end of next year if we are to succeed in slashing carbon emissions by the required amount (45% by 2030). Last year's IPCC report indicated that to reach this goal global emissions must peak by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter. We are nowhere near where we need to be to make this happen.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

The key to combating the climate crisis will be the removal of Donald Trump from power in the U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November, 2020.  The fate of the Earth demands that all nations rise up to confront the existential threats posed by a rapidly warming world.

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Arctic Heatwaves are a Final Warning

When the coldest place on Earth is regularly breaking heat records it may be time to concede that the end may indeed be nigh. The world is heating up but nowhere is this warming trend more pronounced than in the Arctic. The Arctic is getting hotter three times as fast as the rest of the world. This year (2019) was the second or third warmest Arctic spring on record. At the end of March temperatures in parts of the Arctic were 22° C above seasonal norms smashing the all time temperature record for the month. In May it hit  29° C (84° F) in Arkhangelsk, Russia which is situated near the Arctic Ocean. In Koynas, an area east of Arkhangelsk, temperature exceeded 30.6° C (87° F).

In July temperatures reached a record 69.8° F in Alert, which is situated in the Qikiqtaaluk Region, in Nunavut, Canada. Located less than less 600 miles from the North Pole, this is the northernmost permanently inhabited place in the world. Heatwaves and heat records are becoming the new Arctic norm. In recent years there have been a slew of days when the mercury has climbed above 15° C (60° F). This is way above the seasonal average of 3° C (38° F).

Armel Castellan, a meteorologist at the Canadian environment ministry told AFP that these temperatures are "completely staggering" adding that this is only one data point among many.. "It’s quite phenomenal as a statistic, it’s just one example among hundreds and hundreds of other records established by global warming," Castellan said.

There is no end in sight as Canadian government models predict that the warm weather will continue in the Arctic throughout the rest of the summer.

The Arctic is critical for a number of reasons including its impact on the world's climate. A 2018 study indicated that Arctic warming interferes with the jet stream and increases the likelihood of heatwaves. The heatwaves in the Arctic have been attributed to irregular fluctuations in the jet stream. The wandering jet stream has also been implicated in this year's heatwaves in Canada, the U.S., Europe and Asia.

It is no coincidence that these heatwaves are taking place against the backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions. At 415 parts per million this is the highest level of atmospheric carbon in at least 800,000 years.

While this is bad enough there are even more cataclysmic implications of Arctic warming. There are at least 1.5 trillion tons of carbon frozen in the permafrost of the far north, if warming continues and the ice keeps melting, these gases could be released into the atmosphere canceling out even our most ambitious mitigation efforts. This could push the climate beyond tipping points from which we may not be able to recover.

We are faced with a stark choice, drastically slash greenhouse gas emissions or continue with business as usual and destroy civilization as we know it.

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Alaska is Warming Faster than the Rest of the U.S.

Record breaking heat is plaguing Alaska. According to NOAA the winter of 2019 in Alaska was the third-warmest on record. This spring there were unseasonably warm temperatures in the frontier state. March temperatures averaged 11° Celsius (C) above normal. On March 30, the Alaskan Arctic recorded temperatures that were 22° C above normal. On March 31 a mass of high pressure in the atmosphere called an "upper-level ridge" in Alaska set records for the month with temperatures in excess of 70° Fahrenheit (F). The so called "omega block" is an area of high pressure that forces the jet-stream to flow around it. Klawock reached 71° F on March 31 and at least five other locations in Alaska set monthly high temperature records.

The summer of 2019 has been unusually hot marked by at least three heatwaves and Alaska, the northernmost point of the U.S. is no exception. Early in July, the US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, registered record high temperatures. The Independence day holiday was marked by a record breaking heatwave in Alaska.

In fact the heat in Alaska has set a number of records in 2019. "The magnitude and persistence of the warmth is particularly striking to me this winter in parts of Alaska," said Zack Labe, a climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the University of California at Irvine.

The warm weather has thinned ice and this has claimed lives. People have fallen through the thinner ice and others are prevented from using ice which is traditionally an important means of transport in the colder months. To illustrate in late March when Bering Sea ice is usually at its maximum, it had largely disappeared. As of April the ice coverage was even lower than the unprecedented low in 2018 and by mid may it was almost entirely gone when it usually persists until June.

The disappearing sea ice and melting permafrost are making life impossible in some villages including Kivalina, Newtok and Shishmaref. Climate change is wreaking havoc on subsistence hunting and fishing both in terms of using ice as a transportation medium and the changing location of fish and game.

In addition to these local impacts, declining sea ice may also have implications for global weather patterns. It is clear that open water creates warmer air temperatures and this leads to more evaporation which fuels storms.

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United States Rocked by Summer Heat

Heatwaves are increasingly common and increasingly intense and long lasting in the U.S.  June was hot in the U.S. and so was July. The month of July started with a heatwave that enveloped almost half the country and just past the middle of the same month another heatwave saw even hotter temperatures.

While the June heatwave saw temperatures exceed 90 Fahrenheit (32° Celsius) in one third of the country, the second July heatwave saw more than half of the country enduring temperatures surpassing 100° F (38° C) when the humidity was factored.

On Saturday, July 20th new one-day temperature records were recorded in more than a half a dozen places including New York and Michigan. In this heatwave two-thirds of the Lower 48 states stifled under some of the hottest hottest weather in the U.S. since 2012.

These heatwaves are being compounded by high humidity which make it feel even hotter. In some places the combination of heat and humidity pushed heat indexes as high as 115° F (46° C). This heatwave was also notable for its warm overnight temperatures which NOAA data indicates has increased at twice the rate of summer days.

On the periphery of these heat domes is an area being described by meteorologists as the ring of fire. This is a zone where severe storms can develop. The heatwave and related storms caused power outages in areas ranging from Michigan to New York.

A slew of studies indicate these heatwaves are more likely due to global warming. The cause of the recent heatwaves in the U.S. and elsewhere is the jet-stream. A warmer world has caused the jet-stream to meander and slow down. According to a 2016 study in Nature Scientific Reports, led by climatologist Michael Mann, record temperature years are 600 to 130,000 times more likely thanks to anthropogenic climate change. Studies also show they are also longer and more intense.  Some of the most dire predictions indicate that by the end of the century the combination of of heat and humidity could push the heat index past a potentially fatal 131° F (55° C).

They will only get worse if we fail to do what common sense dictates. We must significantly reduce our greenhouse gases if we are to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper threshold limit. According to a recently published study, if we do not succeed in reigning in our greenhouse gases, parts of Florida and Texas could see temperatures over 100 F (38° C) for almost half the year.

A U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report states that under a high emissions scenario temperatures in the country will increase by 9° F in the last quarter of this century. The NCA report also states that temperature extremes are rising at an even faster rate than average temperatures. In a couple of decades five day heat waves could be 12° F warmer.

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The Deadly Collusion of Heat and Poverty

The combination of heat and poverty threatens the lives of millions of people in countries like India, China, Nepal, Zimbabwe.  If we do not substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, it will get much worse for everyone but a warmer planet will be particularly brutal for the world's poor.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) India is among the countries that will suffer the most from climate change. That is not only because of an increasing frequency and duration of heatwaves it is also because India is one of the most populace countries in the world with with one of the highest incidences of poverty. More than 86 percent of the country lives on less than $5.50 per day.

The plight of the poor in India is being made impossible by extreme heat. During the deadly heatwave in Bihar, India's most economically disadvantaged state, schools and colleges were closed for almost a week. The government urged people to stay indoors, however, that is difficult for those who need to work to survive.

According to MIT research much of South Asia may soon become unlivable. As explained by one of the researchers who took part in the research, the places in India where survivability may be difficult overlap with already highly vulnerable areas. This view was expressed by Eun Soon, assistant professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Asia is especially vulnerable because of its dense population and low incomes. People that rely on fishing and agriculture may not be able to earn a living.

"If we continue to produce the greenhouse gases at the current pace, one of the most populous regions in the world will not avoid the high risk of the deadly heat wave, facing an upper limit on human heat tolerance," Eun Soon said.

In poorer countries the average person may have no way of escaping the heat. This represents a serious threat to human health and for many people it may prove fatal. A 2018 World Health Organisation (WHO) report suggests that 38,000 people could die each year between 2030 and 2050 due to heat exposure. The report says the people in developing countries are among the most vulnerable.

Extreme heat is a serious problem in many ways. Some, like heatstroke and respiratory ailments are obvious, however, other lesser known impacts have been far more deadly. Water born illnesses due to a shortage of potable water is one of the biggest killers in the world. Since World War II, contaminated water has killed more people around the globe than all wars and other forms of violence combined.

Heat is also related to drought which directly impacts subsistence agriculture. More than 1 billion people have suffered from drought in the last decade. In 2017 the World Bank reported that since 2001 drought has wiped out enough produce to feed 81 million people every day for a year.

According to research, more than 1.3 billion people live on deteriorating agricultural land. Seventy-five percent of people living in poverty rely on agriculture and natural resources to survive. Two and a half billion smallholder farmers, herders and fisheries are vulnerable to climate change.

The lack of refrigeration in some areas means that things like food and medicine will spoil more quickly compounding the problems of hunger and health.

Extreme weather is on the rise due to global warming. The number of people affected by extreme weather has increased from 102 million in 2015 to 204 million in 2016. In 2017 extreme weather events cost a total of $335 billion and drove a 49 percent increase in economic losses over the previous decade. Such events are especially devastating for people who are already struggling with poverty.

The world's poor are on a collision course with an increasingly deadly climate. The sad irony is that those who did the least to cause this crisis are the ones who suffer the most. This is a social justice issue and the authors of this calamity are complicit.

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Asia is Heating Up and the South May Soon be Uninhabitable

Asia is one of the world's hottest continents and it is also the most populated continent in the world with 60 percent of the total population of the Earth. Like many other places around the world many of the 50 countries in Asia are suffering from heatwaves in 2019. In the period between April and June of this year India was hit with protracted heatwaves as was neighboring Pakistan and a number of other Asian countries including Vietnam, Kuwait, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

Vietnam was hit with a heatwave in April that included setting a record for the hottest day ever in the country. The Vietnam national weather service reported that Ha Tinh, a town about 320km south of Hanoi, recorded a high temperature of 43.4°C. This new national heat record breaks the record that was set just four years ago. What makes this particularly anomalous is the fact that the hottest months in Vietnam are usually in June and July.

By far the hottest place in Asia is Kuwait which recorded a temperature of 52.2°C in June. This temperature reading occurred in the region of Matraba in North Kuwait on June 9th. A recent study confirmed that Kuwait earns the unwanted distinction of Asia's hottest ever temperature with readings of 53.9°C. Pakistan came in second with a reading of 53.7°C in 2017.

More frequent and more intense heatwaves are part of a troubling global trend and countries in Asia are expected to be among the most adversely impacted.

According to research from MIT, in the worst case scenario temperature increases will soon breech the limits of survivability or come very close to it in most of South Asia. India's Chota Nagpur Plateau, in the northeast of the country, and Bangladesh are expected to be the worst hit. The Ganges River valley, India's northeast and eastern coast, northern Sri Lanka, and the Indus Valley of Pakistan may come close to surpassing these thresholds.

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Worsening Deadly Heatwaves in India

One of India's longest and most intense heatwaves has killed at least one hundred people and on July 17th at least 100 more died due to monsoon flooding and mudslides. The pre-monsoon heatwave lasted for more than a month and it was compounded by severe drought that has caused major water shortages. At its worst temperatures exceeded 50°C.

In April, central and northwestern India were suffering from a heatwave that was 6°C above the average. At the beginning of June Delhi hit temperatures of 48°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in that city for that month. The temperatures in Churu, set a new Indian record as they climbed above 50°C and helped to precipitate water shortages. The 9 million residents in the city of Chennai also faced water shortages. Some villages went without water for days. Approximately 40 percent of India has endured drought conditions in 2019.

Droughts are becoming more frequent and they are commonly being followed by sudden storms and floods. There have been radical changes to rainfall patterns in India over the course of the last ten years.

The situation in India is dire and getting worse. This has prompted questions about whether some parts of India will soon be incapable of supporting life.

An CNN article by Shekhar Chandra, a Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that the worsening heat will cause a humanitarian crisis as "large parts of the country potentially become too hot to be inhabitable".

Even if we do what we must to reduce emissions and minimize the impact of global warming, parts of India may still be uninhabitable as a certain amount of warming is baked into the system.

"Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures, parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability," Chandra said.

The rate at which warming is increasing in India is troubling. Chandra reports that in 2010 there were 21 official heatwaves across India, in 2018 there were 484. This represents a 23 fold increase in less than a decade.

According to AK Sahai and Sushmita Joseph, of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the situation is destined to get worse as heatwaves are expected to engulf the whole of India.

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Heat Waves and the Climate Crisis

The climate crisis is here and its hot. If you think things are bad today they will get a lot worse if we continue with business as usual. Heatwaves are being amplified by a rise in global temperatures. They are already becoming more frequent and severe and they will only get worse if we fail to act. We have amassed a vast store of data that proves conclusively that the world is getting warmer. Heatwaves are 4 degrees Celsius hotter than they were a century ago and the heatwaves hitting Europe are more frequent and more severe.

On average the 20 warmest years since 1880 have all been within the past 22 years. The years 2015-2018 make up the top four, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This was a record breaking Spring and early summer in Canada. Globally, last month was the hottest month of June in recorded history and Europe suffered through a record breaking heatwave at end of June.

Dr Friederike Otto, of the University of Oxford, said: "This is a strong reminder again that climate change is happening here and now. It is not a problem for our kids only."

As reported by the Guardian, attribution studies suggest heat waves are much more likely and severe due to climate change. "There have been more than 230 attribution studies to date around the world and these have found that 95% of heatwaves were made more more likely or worse by climate change. For droughts, 65% were definitely affected climate change, while the figure for floods was 57%."

Global heat records are being set five times as often today as they would in a stable climate. "Heat waves are on the rise," Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. "This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and gas," Rahmstorf, told the Associated Press.

In about three decades, London's climate will feel a lot like Barcelona's, including severe droughts, Madrid will feel more like Marrakesh, Morocco; Seattle will feel like San Francisco; and New York will feel like Virginia Beach, Virginia. These predictions come from a study that estimated 77 percent. of cities around the world will see their climate conditions change drastically.

Scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: "If the observed trend in heatwaves continues, [even] at the Paris goal of 2C of warming a heatwave like this will be the norm in June. Both observations and models show a strong trend towards stronger heatwaves. However, the observed trend is stronger than the modeled one, and we do not yet know why." We have already seen warming of 1 degree Celsius.

Europe's heatwave at the end of June 2019 was caused by a mass of hot air coming from the Sahara Desert and as with the extreme heat recorded in Canada an anomalous jet stream is being implicated.

The increasing prevalence and severity is heat waves is a direct corollary of climate change. Studies predict that deadly heat waves are going to become far more common and far more serious than they are today. As reported by NBC News, Steve Vavrus, a senior scientist at the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison said that although the situation is perilous there is still time to do something about it.

"Everywhere is vulnerable and we’re starting to load the dice more with slow-moving and meandering jet stream patterns," Vavrus said. "Extreme weather events are becoming the new normal and they are lasting longer than they have in the past."

Vavrus explained that reducing the world’s carbon emissions would slow global warming and return the jet stream to its more typical speed and pattern. In the absence of consorted action to reduce emissions, extreme weather like heat waves may prove to be among the biggest problems we face in the coming decades.

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More Hot Data Contributes to Existential Concerns

The heat records being set around the globe foreshadow a world where new record setting high temperatures are commonplace. According to the EU‘s satellite agency, last month was the hottest June ever recorded.

Europe has been suffering through excruciating heat waves and countries including France have set all time heat records exceeding 45C. In parts of Asia including Kuwait and India temperatures are exceeding 50 Celsius.

While seasonal temperature spikes are not evidence of global warming, they are part of a clear and unmistakable trend. There have been a succession of hot months in 2019 including the Earth's fourth-hottest May, and the second-hottest April and March. February's global average temperature was the fifth hottest on record and January was the third hottest.

In the period between December 2018 and February 2019 there was record heat in much of Australia, parts of northeastern Brazil, the Southern Ocean, East China and the Barents Seas and southeastern Pacific Ocean. It is not just that we have seen hot temperatures in 2019, this is part of a decades long warming trend.

The last time be saw monthly temperatures that fell below the mean was February 1985. Decades of hot data including 35 years or more than 410 months of above average temperatures makes the warming trend impossible to refute. We are breaking temperature records with increasing regularity with the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 1998.

Warmer weather also causes more precipitation, more storms and more flooding. The United States has had to deal with some intense flooding in 2019. We have seen protracted floods in the Midwest, and more recently flash flooding in Washington and Louisiana. Heatwaves have even grounded planes, buckled train tracks, and led to school closures.

It is not accurate to say that this is the new normal as it will likely get worse. According to new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change we can expect to see more temperature records being broken in fact we can expect a succession of record breaking heatwaves in most of the world.

These researchers also make it clear that these temperature increases are directly tied to rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity. They also indicate that these higher temperatures make air pollution worse and make water more scarce leading to agricultural failures, malnutrition and starvation.

The scientists conclude that their modeling predicts high monthly mean temperature records will be set in 58 percent of the world every year. The highest monthly mean temperature increases will occur in developing countries and small island states.  Low lying countries like the Marshall Islands are already facing existential threats as they are fighting to stay above the waves having faced repeated inundations in 2019.

Climate change is is contributing to species extinction and represents a significant threat to human life. Extreme heat fuels both drought and wildfires but heatwaves are the most deadly form of extreme weather and this summer's heatwaves are no exception. People have succumbed to heat stroke, breathing issues, heart attacks, and kidney problems. According to conservative estimates from the W.H.O. a quarter of a million people are expected to die annually between 2030 and 2050 due to climate change.

Current temperatures show a 1.3 C global average temperature increase. The upper threshold limit agreed to in the Paris Climate Accord is between 1.5C and 2C. Other studies show that even if we keep temperatures from rising beyond 2C. more than a billion people will be forced to relocate and at least two billion more will suffer from food and water scarcity. At 3C. coastal cities would be inundated and as much as 90 percent of humanity could die.

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Heat Connects Wildfires to Climate Change

A global heat wave is fueling wildfires from South America to the Arctic Circle.  Research links climate change to heatwaves and drought both of which are important catalysts for wildfires.

As reported by the BBC a recent study suggests that climate change has made heat waves more than twice as likely in Europe. The research concludes that the European heatwave of 2003 was 500% more likely due to climate change and the so-called "Lucifer" heatwave in Eastern Europe was made 10 times more likely by climate change. Studies show how heat and drought make vegetation and trees more combustible. We are even able to link some fires -- like the Canadian wildfires of 2016 -- directly to climate change.

The summer of 2018 is on track to be one of the hottest on record and this has spawned an anomalous number of wildfires. July was the hottest months in one of the hottest years ever recorded. Early in July it was becoming apparent that this was going to be a devastating year for wildfires.

In the first week of July the combination of record breaking heat and drought contributed to more than 30 large fires in 12 western US states. At the end of July there were more than 50 fires burning in 14 western states.  By the end of the month there were more than 140 wildfires burning across the US covering over a million acres. As of August 13 at least 100 wildfires have burnt a million and half acres in the western US alone. As in previous years California is the worst hit state. There are currently more than a dozen active wildfires in the state.

Heat and drought conditions have also created ideal wildfire conditions in Europe. The heat has contributed to a 43 percent increase in fires in Europe compared to the average.

In Greece the situation was perilous. This is the hottest year in recorded Greek history and it has sparked devastating wildfires that  have destroyed towns and caused people to flea into the sea to escape the infernos. At least 91 people have died as a consequence of the Greek wildfires. Last year wildfires killed more than 100 people in Portugal.  This year Portugal is even hotter and wildfires are thought to have killed at least 43 people so far.

Increasing levels of heat are making forests more prone to fires and lengthening the fire season. Wildfire season in the American west is now nearly four months longer than it was just 40 years ago, and the average wildfire is burning six times more forest area than it did in the 1970s.

Wildfires have destroyed tens of thousands of homes and businesses. The cost of these losses as well as the cost of fighting these fires amounts to tens of billions of dollars. In addition to destroying land and property the smoke and ash kill people and compromise health adding to the financial burden of wildfires. As reported by Fortune, the cost of the 2017 fires in northern California may end up exceeding $2.5 billion in insurance claims alone.

There was a time when we would be careful not to directly link extreme weather events to climate change. However, advances in attribution science are making it possible for us to say that anthropogenic climate change id playing a role. Longer summers, more intense drought, and higher temperatures are all linked to greater fire risk.

A 2016 study published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) links climate change to the increase in wildfires over recent decades. The study from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. concluded that over the last 30 years climate change has doubled the area affected by forest fires in the western U.S. They found that 55 percent of the increase in fuel aridity expected to lead to fires could be attributed to human-influenced climate change. Since 1970 there has bee a 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit temperature increase in the western US and this drives fire by drying out the land. Warmer air sucks the moisture out of plants, trees, dead vegetation, and soil.

Heat dries out vegetation and this provides fuel for the fires. This heat also contributes to the proliferation of certain insects that kill trees and add even more fodder to the flames. Wildfires are on the increase for a number of reasons but climate change is surely one of them.

The July fires mark the beginning of a fire season that is expected to peak in August and not relent until October. 

Ongoing heat, drought and the growing prospect of an El Niño does not bode well.  Mark Finney, a research forester with the U.S. Forest Service warned that the worst fires are yet to come.

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Extreme Midsummer Heat in the Northern Hemisphere

Marked by record setting heatwaves in July, this has been an unusually hot summer in the northern hemisphere. All around the world we are seeing evidence of longer and more intense heatwaves. The temperature data over the last three decades clearly indicate that the world is getting warmer and 2018 is no exception. If the trend continues this will be one of the warmest years on record alongside 2015, 2016, and 2017.

July was the hottest month in one of the hottest summers in recorded history. This follows June which was the second warmest on record. Millions of people around the world are trapped in heat domes that are causing protracted heat waves.  Concurrent record setting heat plagued cities across North America, Europe, Asia and Africa.

At the end of June Quriyat, Oman recorded the highest low temperature ever recorded anywhere on earth. The temperature reached 122° F (50 C) during the day and did not drop below 109° F (42.6° C) at night. Early in July we saw all-time high heat records set at Mount Washington, New Hampshire, and Tbilisi, Georgia. Also in July Ouargla, Algeria saw temperatures of 124.3° F (51.3° C) which is the highest temperature ever recorded in Africa.

Especially intense heat waves struck Japan killing 86 people and sending tens of thousands of others to hospital. On July 23, a record was broken when the mercury hit 41.1° C (106° F) in Kumagaya, northwest of Tokyo. In Montreal, Canada more than 50 people died as a result of a protracted heatwave that set records with temperatures approximating 100° F (37.7° C). Other normally temperate climates that are being baked by anomalous heat waves include Ireland and Scotland. In parts of Siberia temperatures were as much as 40 degrees above normal.

High temperature records were also set in Burlington, Vermont, Denver, Colorado and Ottawa, Canada. Los Angeles and several other places in California set records as vast swaths of the state burned. 

In Europe high temperature records were set in Glasgow, Shannon, Belfast and Castlederg. Eurasia saw records set in Tbilisi, Georgia and Yerevan, Armenia. Several locations in southern Russia topped or matched their warmest temperatures. Early in August a total of 8 separate locations broke all time high temperature records in Portugal reaching as high as 116.6° F (47° C) in some places.

According to the Huffington Post a recent study states that we are at risk of creating "hothouse" conditions with temperature increases of as much as 9° F (5° C) above global average temperatures.

As explained by climate researcher Phil Williamson, from the University of East Anglia, this is an urgent warning. "In the context of the summer of 2018" Williamson said, "this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight".

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California is Burning Again

California is being ravaged by the worst wildfire seasons on record. Eight people are know to have been killed by the fires and thousands of homes have been destroyed. Megafires have ravaged The golden state in recent years 2016, 2017 and now 2018 are the three most damaging wildfire seasons in the state's history.

In recent years fires in California have killed hundreds of people and destroyed thousands of buildings. In 2017 the record breaking Thomas fire engulfed the southern California communities of Ventura and Santa Barbara. It burned 271,000 acres, destroyed more than 1,000 structures and prompted the largest deployment of fire resources in California history.

The 2018 fire season in California started early and by the beginning of July it was already twice the five year average. Early this summer the Mendocino Complex fire eclipsed the Thomas fire to become the largest wildfire ever recorded in California. In just over ten days the flames scorched more than 283,000 acres of land. As of August 13th the Mendocino fire has burned 354,410 acres. Records were also broken in the fire that ravaged Sylmar and Lake View Terrace

"We’ve been firefighters for decades," veteran firefighter Antonio Negrete told the Los Angeles Times, "and have never seen anything like this."

The fires that ripped through Northern California in October 2017 killed dozens of people and destroyed almost 10,000 structures. Santa Rosa alone lost 3,000 homes or 5 percent of the community's building stock.

This year, in the first week of July the County fire ignited near Sacramento. It quickly spread out of control and it grew at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour consuming tens of thousands of acres.

As of the end of July 2018 there were 17 major fires burning in California. In northern California six people were killed by the Carr fire which forced the evacuation of thousands and destroyed almost 900 structures. In the month of July alone the Carr fire consumed 84,000 acres (34,000 hectares) of land. As of August 13th the Carr fire has burned 207,000 acres and is still burning. One of the most interesting aspects of the Carr fire are the high winds that blew down trees and ripped tiles off of roofs. According to some estimates this level of wind damage is consistent with wind speeds in excess of 143 mph.

So far, the Holy Fire has scorched more than 22,700 acres in the Cleveland National Forest. As of August 13th, at least 17 people are known to have been killed by the fires in California and about 2,000 structures have been destroyed.

In the past, scientists have been reluctant to cite climate change as a major factor in California’s worsening wildfires. However, there is a growing body of evidence indicating that climate change is warming the planet and increasing the frequency and ferocity of wildfires.

Heat is feeding these wildfires and thanks to increasingly precise attribution science we can now say with high confidence that at least some of this heat is caused by climate change.  Research also supports the logical hypothesis that warmer temperatures are increasing wildfire intensity.  California has just experienced its hottest summer on record, with less than 25 percent of the average rainfall. The heat dries out vegetation, making it all the more combustible. According to a recent study there is a vast amount of "tinder-dry" vegetation in California that is causing fires to burn more intensely

The state has experienced unprecedented devastation and unless we stop emitting greenhouse gases it will keep getting hotter. Warmer temperatures mean we can expect more frequent and more intense wildfires.

Updated August 14, 2018 at 11:30 EST.

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Warming Temperatures are an Urgent Warning

We are seeing more intense, frequent, wider, and longer heat waves as well as five times more heat records than we did when the climate was stable. The global average temperature has been surpassing the 20th century average for more than 42 straight years. Last year was no exception with record breaking temperatures exceeding 129°F (54°C) which according to some analysts is the highest accurately recorded temperatures ever documented. Last year was the hottest year on record after 2016 and 2015. The trend is clear, all of the hottest years on record have occurred in recent years. The five warmest years have all come since 2010, the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1998 and the 20 warmest years on record have occurred since 1995.

In the face of overwhelming evidence deniers continue to look for ways they can refute the scientific consensus on global warming. We continue to debate the veracity of this issue despite the fact that it has been settled by decades of science. It is unconscionable that mainstream journalists continue to publish alternative interpretations of the data. A good example is a recent Wall Street Journal article that casts aspersions on James Hansen's predictions.

Individual data points notwithstanding, the fact remains that global temperature averages continue to increase and this is consistent with almost all the scientific predictions. The most recent observations are further corroboration of what we have known for years. In 2014 the AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) noted that, "most global land areas analyzed have experienced significant warming of both maximum and minimum temperature extremes since about 1950" and concluded that it is "likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations." The dangers of heat waves were also cited in the EPA's endangerment finding.

The Spring and Summer of 2017 were extremely hot in the US, Europe, Asia and South America. Last year the US Southwest, (California, Nevada, and Arizona) smashed daily high temperature records set the year before. In 2017 we saw a number of high temperature records set in countries all around the world including Iran, Pakistan, Oman, Norway, and Austria. This is a trend that appears to be continuing this year with record setting heat waves in the US, Canada, UK, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Qatar and Australia.

North America

The southwest US had its warmest year ever in 2017 and a number of high temperature records were set. On June 20th 2017, Death Valley, recorded a temperature of 126.5°F (52.5°C), making it the highest temperature measured in the Western Hemisphere so early in the year. In the early summer of 2017 temperatures approached record levels in the US southwest and California with temperatures around 120.2°F (49°C) in places. In Phoenix Arizona the heat caused the cancellation of some flights. The warm weather is not just restricted to the summer. In the heart of winter of 2017 Oklahoma hit 100°F (37.7°C). Early in July 2017, a spate of high temperature records were set California and northern Nevada. This includes the communities of Stockton, Modesto, South Lake Tahoe, Reno and Downtown Los Angeles.

Canada is often associated with cold weather but even here we are seeing profound warming. On July 6th 2017 dozens of temperature records were broken in the Canadian province of British Columbia including the area around Cache Creek, Castlegar, Clearwater, Clinton, Gibsons, Hope Slide area, Kamloops, Kelowna, Mackenzie, Merritt, Nakusp, Nelson, Osoyoos, Penticton, Prince George, Puntzi Mountain, Squamish area, Vernon, Williams Lake and Warfield. On July 8th 2017 a number of records were set in Saskachewan including in the communities of Assiniboia, Coronach, Rockglen and Val Marie.

In 2018 the trend continued in Canada. Windsor, Ontario broke heat records in Februrary and in May records were broken in Alberta. Both Edmonton and Calgary had a record breaking heat wave. During the same period in May heat records were broken in B.C. and New Bruswick.

In 2018 the US experienced record warmth in February and the lower 48 states had the warmest May on record. At the end of May going into June south-central portions of the United States registered near record setting heat. It is expected that the period between May and July will be the warmest on record in the continental US.. It is hot but it will get much hotter if we continue with business as usual. By 2100 the average high summer temperature in the US is expected to warm by almost 20 degrees Fahrenheit (10°C).

According to the University of Winnipeg’s Prairie Climate Centre's new interactive tool called Climate Atlas communities across Canada will experience substantially more heat waves. Toronto will face 100 searing-hot days a year in the decades ahead. 

Europe

A protracted heat wave saturated Mediterranean nations (from Portugal to western Balkans) in the spring and summer of 2017. In Portugal temperatures exceeding 104°f (40 °C) caused forest fires that killed at least 60 people. Neighboring Spain recorded its warmest spring since 1965 and a number of Spanish cities broke records in June including Granda, Madrid, Salamanca and Zamora. French cities also broke records in June include Cuers, Toulon, Montpellier and Marseille. Last August much of Europe sweltered under a heat wave called "Lucifer". The UK also registered above average temperatures in 2017 and May 2018 was the warmest on record. The Spring of 2018 was exceptionally hot in Europe and the outlook for summer suggests the worst is yet to come.

Asia

Asia was also affected by heat waves in 2017. In 2017 temperature records were broken across Asia including the Middle East. On May 17 in Mesaira, United Arab Emirates, temperatures surpassed 122°F (50°C). One month later on June 15, Iran and Iraq recorded temperatures in excess of 122°F (50°C). Not only are the highs higher but the lows are getting higher as well. On June 17, Khasab, Oman set another world record for the highest nighttime minimum at 111°F (44.2°C). Oman tied all-time heat records in 2017. A 126°F (52°C) reading in Awhaz, Iran, on June 29, the highest temperature ever in that country and the highest-ever June reading in Asia. On July 21, Mitribah Kuwait recorded temperatures of 129.3°F (54°C) on the same day Basra, Iraq saw temperatures soar to 129°F (53.9°C).

In 2017 Eastern China had its warmest year on record. The town of Turbat in southwestern Pakistan reported a temperature of 129.3°F (54°C) on May 28 is the highest temperature ever recorded in May. The Hanoi region of Vietnam, smashed the previous high temperature record with a reading of 108°F (42°C) on June 4th.

The warm weather persists in 2018 with a number of record breaking high temperatures in Asia. For example on April 30th 2018, temperatures in Nawabshah, Pakistan reached 122°F (50°C). Pakistan's searing April temperatures set a new global record. On March 29, the temperature in Nawabshah, Iraq hit 113.9°F (45.5°C). On March 30, Pakistan registered its hottest weather ever so early in the season. On the same day, Abu Samrah, Qatar broke records with temperatures of 104°F (40°C). Other monthly records may have fallen in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and the United Arab Emirates. On June 26th 2018 the city of Quriyat in Oman is alleged to have recorded the highest "low" temperature in known history with a reading of  108.7°F (42.6°C).

Australia

Australia has suffered through heat waves in 2016 extending into 2017. During the Southern Hemisphere's summer of 2017, record heat swept through Australia, which set more than 40 high-temperature records. Eastern Australia had its warmest year ever in 2017. In February Temperatures spiked to over 107°F (41.6°C) in Sydney and up to 117°F (47°C) farther inland. Several towns west of Sydney had record-setting streaks of temperatures above 104°F (40°C). The White Cliffs weather station in the Southeast, recorded the warmest-ever nighttime low temperature in Australia, at 94.3°F (34.6°C). Some spots in Queensland, in the Northeast, broke the 104°F (40°C) Celsius mark for the first time ever. In Canberra, the number of heat wave days has doubled in the past 60 years and records show that extreme heat has killed more Australians than any other type of natural disaster in the last 100 years. In 2018 Australia registered its warmest and driest April ever and on April 9, Sydney broke heat records.

South America

Parts of South America have also warmed to record levels during the Southern Hemisphere's summer of 2017. In Chile, where 12 different weather stations set all-time temperature records above 110°F (43°C) in late January. The sweltering heat contributed to the worst wildfires in Chile's history. These fires ravaged more than 300,000 acres.

Conclusion

Although individual temperature readings cannot be taken as evidence of global warming when we string them all together over the course of decades a convincing body of evidence emerges. The situation is growing ever more urgent as predictions for the future indicate the situation will get far worse.

"By 2040, we will see about 12 times more monthly heat records than in a stable climate, not just five times, as in recent years," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "In that sense, four out of five monthly heat records are most likely man-made.... And these new heat records will also be hotter than past records, since, with every new record, the bar for topping that one again is raised."

As pointed out in a Vanity Fair article extreme heat already makes some places uninhabitable for at least parts of the year. Computer models predict that increasing levels of heat will make larger portions of the earth uninhabitable for longer periods of time. As is often the case with climate impacts, poorer communities will suffer disproportionately.

High temperatures contribute to a wide range of serious and even life threatening problems including extreme weather, and wildfires. In 1995 a three day heat wave in Chicago killed more than 700 people, a 2003 European heat wave killed more 30,000 people across the continent. A study released in June 2017 indicates that 30 percent of the world's population is currently at risk from deadly heat waves. If we fail to act that number will climb to 74 percent of the people on Earth.

The implications extend beyond human lives and include serious risks to our infrastructure that represents both a threat and an opportunity for our economies. Increasing heat is impacting everything from air travel to construction. Extreme heat exacerbates social tensions and foments conflict. We can expect to see more mass migration and new classes of migrants including groups of individuals known as climate refugees. Melting sea ice will cause more sea level rise and this on its own could displace billions of people around the world. Heat is also causing extensive crop failures and it is killing vast numbers of coral reefs. Entire eco-systems are being degraded or destroyed and if we continue with business as usual the situation is destined to get far worse.

We are faced with an existential choice. We must act now if we are to have a chance of keeping temperatures from warming more than the upper safe limit of between 1.5°C and 2.0°C above preindustrial norms. Our window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Two independent studies indicate that we are facing perilous odds. The first study suggests that we have a 13 percent chance of keeping temperatures below 1.5°C. The second study suggests that the chances of staying within 2.0°C is very small and the chances of staying within 1.5°C are almost zero.

The planet is warming because of GHGs largely from the burning of fossil fuels so to address the problem we need to wean ourselves off of dirty sources of energy. We understand the problem and we know what we have to do to address it. The only mystery is why we have failed to act in the face of such overwhelming evidence.

This story was last updated on June 30, 2018

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Aussies Feeling the Heat of Global Warming

Australia continues its warming trend and scientists know that this is due to anthropogenic climate change. Even though carbon emissions were flat for the third straight year, 2016 was still the hottest year on record. Sixteen of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred since the dawn of the new millennium. According to the World Meteorological Association, 2016 was 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer on average than temperatures for the preindustrial Earth. That is only .3 degrees Celsius below the upper threshold limit of 1.5-degree-Celsius. Extreme heat is not just a source of discomfort it can be deadly. The Australian Climate Council says that more people have been killed by heat in the last century than any other natural disaster.

Heat records fell like flies last year and this was certainly true in the Arctic. We know that the buildup of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide (CO2) cause global warming.  In May 2016, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded 407.7 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, the highest levels of atmospheric carbon ever recorded.

At the end of last year in Australia, there was record heat and drought. The heat continued into the new year with January breaking temperature records in Sydney and Brisbane. In January Sydney broke more records than any month since record taking began in 1858. The hot weather is continuing into the middle of February with some of the hottest temperatures of the summer in Sydney and Melbourne. Even Queensland saw temperatures exceeding 40 degree Celsius. The extreme heat has also contributed to 48 forest fires in New South Wales. Previous research has shown that bush fires are related to climate change.

Inside Climate News reports that heat waves have become more frequent in Australia. This is the view of Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of Australia's Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales:

"In Canberra, Australia's capital, the number of heat wave days has doubled in the past 60 years. In that same time, the beginning of the heatwave season in Sydney has advanced by three weeks, and in Melbourne, heatwaves are hotter," Perkins-Kirkpatrick said. "What's really interesting about this event is that all the physical mechanisms that drive heat waves are not in place."

What makes the Australian heat even more remarkable is that it is taking place in the absence of the kind of El Niño and hemispheric wind patterns that normally drive warmer weather. Scientists agree that climate change has a salient role to play. Forest and fire ecologist David Bowman said anthropogenic global warming is making the Earth and Australia hotter.

"In the last few years it has crossed a line—the anomalous weather has become consistently anomalous. I am confident we are seeing climate change play out in bush fires," Bowman said. "We have frittered away precious time debating abstractions or missing the point entirely. Numerous extreme events, seem unfortunately, the only things to spur broader social change."

Australia is far from the only place hit by extreme heat. In parts of South America, records are also being broken and massive wildfires have consumed hundreds of thousands of acres.

As reported by the Guardian, Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Agata Imielska said that climate change is driving up temperatures.

“One factor is the ongoing warming trend – we’ve warmed by a degree in the past century and it’s not just about averages, we see increases in these extreme temperatures as well,” Imielska said. “It doesn’t just go for land temperatures, it also goes for ocean temperatures. In 2016 we saw the warmest ocean temperatures on record.”

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the heat will continue right through into March. Going forward the situation will only get worse. As greenhouse gasses continue to build up in the atmosphere the hot temperatures will increase.

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