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Global Warming Predictions for 2014 and Beyond

January 01, 2014 Add Comment Edit

It does not take much more than a basic understanding of climate science to appreciate that global warming will continue to have far reaching impacts in 2014 and beyond. Here is a review of some of the well known impacts predicted by climate models. This includes higher atmospheric levels of CO2, warmer temperatures, melting ice, flooding, the spread of infectious diseases, diminished water quality, decreased food production, excessive heat and other extreme weather events.

More Emissions

The planet currently absorbs half our CO2 emissions. However, the level of CO2 absorption is expected reach a saturation point where the oceans and other carbon sinks will no longer be able to naturally sequester CO2.

Melting Ice and Rising Seas

In the Northern Hemisphere ice cover should decrease further, while the Antarctic ice sheet may increase somewhat. The Arctic Ocean was not expected to melt until the end of the century, but current trends suggest it will melt within a decade or two. Greenland's ice is melting at a much faster rate than expected. Melting ice is expected to contribute to sea level rises between 9 and 88 cm (3.5" to 35").

Disease

Global warming is also predicted to increase the spread of infectious diseases. Specifically, scientists predict an increase in the number of people exposed to vector borne diseases (e.g. cholera).

Water Quality

Climate change will tend to degrade water quality through higher water temperatures and increased pollutant load from runoff and overflows of waste facilities.

Food

Some had hoped that global warming would increase food production by providing more arable land to plant crops. However, we can expect that in 2014 food prices will continue to climb soaring as we experience more extreme weather that devastates crops.

Heat

Climate models predict more frequent and more intense heat waves and drought. If the worst climate predictions are realised, vast swathes of the globe could become too hot for humans to survive. Global mean temperature should increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 C (2.5 to 10 F). The severe heat is expected to lead to an increase in heat stress mortality.

Extreme Weather

A warming planet will continue to increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and this will fuel more extreme weather events. Projected adverse impacts include more storm surges causing flooding that could impact tens of millions of people. Intense storms including hurricanes and cyclones are also anticipated.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Event - Sandy One Year Later Conference

October 27, 2013 Add Comment Edit

Sandy One Year Later Conference will take place on October 29, 2013. New Jersey Future invites you to join us at Monmouth University in W. Long Branch for a day-long conference focused on the Sandy recovery process. Distinguished speakers, including former governors James Florio and Christine Todd Whitman and retired U.S. Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, will highlight the economic and planning impacts of Sandy and of potential future storms, and will discuss things New Jersey and its municipalities need to be doing in order to be better prepared for the next severe weather event. There is no charge to attend, but because space is limited, registration is required.

Click here for more information and registration.

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Genetic Engineering: The Dark Side of Climate Ready Crops

May 16, 2013 1 Comment Edit

Climate change is already affecting food supplies around the world as heat waves and drought reduce grain harvests and food prices soar. For every 1˚ C rise above optimum growing season temperatures, farmers will likely experience a 10 percent decline in their yields. And with a growing global population expected to hit 9 billion by 2050, 80 million more people need to be fed each year.

Between 2008 and 2010, at least 261 patents were filed or issued related to “climate-ready” crops—seeds supposedly able to withstand extreme conditions like droughts and floods; of these patents close to 80 percent were controlled by just six agribusiness giants, (DuPont, BASF, Monsanto, Syngenta, Bayer and Dow). This represents an exclusive monopoly and control over the world’s plant biomass.

These large agrochemical and seed corporations are developing “climate-ready crops” and have filed almost two thousand patents for genetically engineered (GE) plants with high tolerance for drought, heat, cold and salinity, As of 2010, almost 366 million acres around the world were planted with GE crops, with the most acreage in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, India, Canada, and China. Increasingly we are seeing developing countries increasing their using GE crops.

In the US GE soybeans make up 93 percent of the US soybean crop, and GE corn is up to 70 percent of the corn crop. Most of these are used for animal feed but as there is no labeling requirement we just do not know for sure.

As much as 80 percent of US processed foods contain GE crop ingredients such as corn starch, high fructose corn syrup, canola and cottonseed oil, soy flour, etc.

Very few benefits have been found to be associated with GE crops. Some research shows that GE crops do initially reduce the use of herbicides and pesticides. However, the use of GE crops have led to the growth of super-weeds which are resistant to herbicides and pesticides and therefore require more of these toxins. The notion that GE crops increase yields does not appear to be borne out by the research.

There is some evidence to suggest that mammals fed with GE soybeans and maize are more prone to develop liver and kidney problems.

The effects of GE crops on biodiversity are also of concern. Allergens from GE crops can be transferred across crop species, and transgenes can drift from GE crops to organic and non-GE crops. This gene drift could give some plants a selective advantage, allowing them to drive out other varieties. In addition, the Bt toxin in GE crops may harm species not specifically targeted that ingest pollen or plant debris. And because the giant agrochemical and seed companies can make more money from their GE seeds, they will likely stop selling conventional seeds, eventually limiting the variety of seeds available to farmers.

The bottom line is that there is still a lot we don’t know about GE crops. The agro-giants in control of the seeds make it impossible to do the research as to gain access to GE seeds, a buyer must sign an agreement that specifically forbids research.

There are also far reaching socio-economic impacts associated with GE seeds because they are proprietary, farmers must pay royalties to use them and new seeds must be purchased every season. Failure to adhere to these stipulations can result in legal action. As of 2007, Monsanto had filed 112 lawsuits against farmers for patent infringement, including against organic and conventional farmers whose crops were inadvertently contaminated with transgene seeds that blew into their fields.

GM crops need more study, but at present we can say they offer few if any proven benefits. What is known is the fact that they jeopardize biodiversity and threaten global food sovereignty.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Event - Climate Change and the Common Good

March 24, 2013 Add Comment Edit

Climate Change and the Common Good will take place on April 8-10, 2013 at Notre Dame, IN. This event will provide a multidisciplinary exploration of the challenges and opportunities society faces in addressing climate change and resource scarcity. From scientists and ethicists to policy and national security experts, this groundbreaking conference will bring together a diverse array of scholars and leaders to approach the complexities of climate disruption in a meaningful and productive way.

Canada’s White Christmas Isn’t So White Anymore

December 26, 2011 Add Comment Edit

Enjoying a white Christmas is an honored tradition for many all over the world, and nowhere more than for those in Canada’s Great White North. But for most Canadians, the tradition of a white Christmas is becoming more a dream than a reality.

David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada studied weather records and snowfall trends collected across Canada between 1964 and 2009. What Phillips found was that the chances of having a white Christmas with more than 2 centimeters (.7 inches) of snow on the ground has decreased dramatically in the past few decades.

The second largest and second coldest country on earth, 85 percent of Canada will still be blanketed in snow, says Phillips. But in the countries southern tier, where most people live and celebrate Christmas, the chances of a decent snowfall has dropped by nearly a quarter since 1991.

“Most Canadians will see a green Christmas,” said Phillips. “Who would have thought in the Great White North, the land of ice and snow, that we would be denied something that we hold close to our hearts?”

“It’s about a feeling,” added Phillips, “it’s about the Christmas card look to a scene, it’s about sleigh bells and chestnuts roasting.”

In Calgary Alberta, the chances of a white Christmas has fallen most precipitously. Between 1964 and 1984, the city had a 74 percent chance of a decent snowfall by Christmas. But from 1991 to 2009 the probability of a white Christmas fell to only 47 percent.

And even when the snow does fall, there is less of it. Goose Bay, Labrador, in northern Canada, still has a 100 percent chance of snow by Christmas, but instead of the average 25 inches of snow depth recorded between 1964 and 1982, only 13.7 inches on average blanketed the community on Christmas between 1991 and 2009.

Fewer white Christmases don’t necessarily put anyone in peril, but it could have an impact on Canada’s tourism industry and is a “bummer” for those attached to the idea of a pristine, white Christmas full of deep fresh snow.

“It’s an emotional thing,” says Phillips. “We’re the great White North, we are the land of ice and snow, and we are losing that reputation, because winters just aren’t what they used to be.”

But the changing winters in Canada may help the onset of climate change “resonate” with Canadians suggests Phillips.

“When climatologists talk about climate change and global warming and it sounds technical, but it hits home with white Christmases.”

Source: Global Warming is Real