Showing posts with label loss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label loss. Show all posts

Video - Arctic Emergency: Scientists on Melting Arctic Ice



In this video climate scientists address how rising temperatures in the Arctic are contributing the melting sea ice, thawing permafrost, and destabilization of a system that has been called "Earth's Air Conditioner". They make the point that global warming is here and is impacting weather patterns, natural systems, and human life around the world - and the Arctic is central to these impacts.

Scientists featured in the film include:

- Jennifer Francis, PhD. Atmospheric Sciences Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University.

- Ron Prinn, PhD. Chemistry TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

- Natalia Shakhova, PhD. Marine Geology International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska-Fairbanks.

- Kevin Schaefer, PhD. Research Scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center.

- Stephen J. Vavrus, PhD. Atmospheric Sciences Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison

- Nikita Zimov, Northeast Science Station, Russian Academy of Sciences.

- Jorien Vonk, PhD. Applied Environmental Sciences Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University

- Jeff Masters, PhD. Meteorology Director, Weather Underground

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Why the Fate of the Arctic Should be of Concern to Us All
Video - O' Canada Stand Up for the Arctic and Oppose Climate Change
Its Official Arctic Sea Ice is at its Lowest Level in Recorded History
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Melting Arctic Ice is Releasing Massive Amounts of Methane
Video - Methane is the Ticking Time Bomb Beneath the Ice
Video - Massive Costs Associated with Arctic Methane
Video - Unlocking Methane in the Permafrost is a Global Warming Time Bomb
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Balken Flooding and the Costs of Climate Change

Much of the former Yugoslavia (Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia) is under water and hundreds of thousands of buildings are inundated across the region. Some of the worst flooding ever experienced in the area has killed almost 50 people and triggered more than three thousand landslides.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated and millions of people are affected. People all across the region are cut off with no water, food, power or communications. The floods are exposing some of the more than one hundred thousand mines and driving the biggest mass migration in the Balkans since the war in the 1990s. 

Four months of rain fell in less than 40 hours in some areas causing rivers to jump their banks. The cause of this inundation started with a powerful heat dome high pressure system over a region just north of the Caspian Sea. By late Tuesday one week ago,  a powerful low pressure system had formed, bringing precipitation and turning the system into a kind of inland hurricane.

In addition to destroying homes, washing out roads, bridges and railway lines, the flooding has severely damaged the coal-fired Nikola Tesla power plant which supplies electricity for half of Serbia and most of Belgrade.

"What we are facing is the biggest water catastrophe in Serbia’s history," Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said. "These are the kind of waters not seen in 1,000 years, let alone 100."

As the climate continues to warm more flooding is expected from increased precipitation and melting ice. Although it is still too early to make a causal connection between global warming and the flooding in the Balkans, a link has been drawn between recent unprecedented flooding in the UK and climate change.

The cost of the flooding in the Balkans is already hundreds of millions of dollars. However, the costs of the damage associated with flooding is only one facet of the situation, landslides are another corollary of climate change. In addition to flooding and landslides, climate change also leads to mass migrations which can trigger its own set of problems including conflict.

Flooding has proven to be very expensive and the situation is expected to get far worse. One report indicates that flooding will double in the EU by 2050. The EU is already spending billions to deal with flooding ($6.7 billion between 2000-2012) and it is expected that this number will rise to $32.1 billion by 2050.

Globally, the costs from flooding alone are estimated to be at least 2 trillion annually and the IEA says that climate change will cost $115 trillion by 2050.

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Implications of Arctic Heat: Less Ice and More Global Warming

The Arctic continues to warm and ocean sea ice continues to retreat at an alarming pace. This has dramatic implications that are both global and local. Arctic ice has been both retreating and thinning in volume for four decades.

As reported in the Ecologist, the latest study by Stroeve et al. from the University College London, was published in Geophysical Research Letters. This study shows that the ice-free period is increasing by 5 days every decade. In some regions of the Arctic, the autumn freeze is now up to 11 days later every decade.

The research examined satellite imagery of the Arctic for the last 30 years. They found that the ice is melting and the increasing exposure to sunlight means that greater quantities of energy are being absorbed by the Earth.

"The extent of sea ice in the Arctic has been declining for the last four decades", said Professor Stroeve. "And the timing of when melt begins and ends has a large impact on the amount of ice lost each summer."
The Arctic is now warmer now than it has been for 40 millennia. This has a cascade of negative impacts which are both local and global.

Globally a warmer Arctic translates to less sea ice which means less reflection of sunlight and more absorption which translates to more heat. This is known as the albedo effect which is defined as the amount of solar energy (shortwave radiation) reflected from the Earth back into space. It is a measure of the reflectivity of the earth's surface. The lower the albedo the more we can expect planetary temperatures to increase. Locally this warming threatens the animals that depend for their existence on a stable cycle of seasons.

The rate of acceleration suggests that the polar ocean could be entirely free of ice in late summer in the next four decades. When ice loss is factored from the perspective of the albedo effect, this will further accelerate global warming.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Alaska's Record Breaking Heat in January Offers More Evidence for a Dramatically Warmer Arctic

While the continental US was being slammed with a succession of cold spells and winter storms in January, Alaska was experiencing some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded for the month. Temperatures were as much as 40°F (22°C) above normal. The all-time warmest January temperature ever observed in Alaska was tied on January 27 when the temperature peaked at 62°F (16.7°C) in Port Alsworth.

The NASA map (above left) shows the temperature anomalies in Alaska for January 23–30, 2014. Those areas which experienced higher than average temperatures compared to the 2001–2010 average for the same week are highlighted in red. The map is based on data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite.

The record heat and rain caused rivers to rise and avalanches which buried highways under as much as 100 feet (30 meters) of snow. The warmer temperatures were caused by a persistent ridge of high pressure off the Pacific Coast.

These findings are consistent with the general warming trend being observed in the Arctic. A recent University of Waterloo study of more than 400 lakes of the North Slope of Alaska, found less ice and a shorter ice season in 2011 compared with 1950. Over the same time-span, the winter ice season has been reduced by almost one month (24 days). Lakes in the region froze almost six days later and broke up about 18 days earlier in the winter of 2011 compared to the winter of 1950. The ice has also gotten 38 centimeters thinner over that period.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Save the Arctic from a "Death Spiral"

In last 30 years, we’ve lost as much as three-quarters of the floating sea ice cover at the top of the world. Satellite images reveal that the volume of that summer sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk so fast that scientists say it’s now in a ‘death spiral’. Due to human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, the Arctic may soon be ice free in the summer for the first time in over 800,000 years.

This will be devastating for polar bears, narwhals, walruses and other species that live there. It will also have profoundly destructive consequences for people all around the world as the Arctic helps to regulate global weather patterns and as a consequence has a powerful impact on global agriculture.

It is a tragic irony that the dirty energy companies that are causing the Arctic to warm at twice the rate of the rest of the world, are also looking to plunder oil and other resources that lie underneath the disappearing ice.

Arctic ecosystems are among the most fragile on Earth and according to recently declassified government documents, dealing with oil spills in the freezing waters is “almost impossible.” If there is one thing we have learned it is that spills are unavoidable and in the Arctic this will be far more destructive than anywhere else on the planet.

We cannot allow the Arctic to be exploited for its natural resources. We cannot allow the loss of the indiginous people's way of life by giant fishing companies. They have fished sustainably in the Arctic for thousands of years.

As part of its efforts to defend the Arctic, Greenpeace is asking people to sign a petition to create a global sanctuary around the North Pole, ban offshore drilling and other destructive industries in the Arctic. Thirty years ago they launched a similar campaign to protect the Antarctic. They were instrumental in helping to create a world park around the South Pole, now they are asking for people to come together to do the same for the Arctic Ocean.

Help Greenpeace to ban destructive industries in the Arctic and create a global sanctuary around the North Pole dedicated to peace and science. Join millions of people around the world and sign the petition to protect the Arctic.

Click here for more information.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Event - Flooding Conference 2014 with CIWEM RCG

Flooding Conference 2014 will take place on January 30 at the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), 15 John Street, London. The subtitle for this event is, "Delivering Flood & Coastal Schemes & Projects Partnering, Joint Funding and Frameworks, Developing Practice and Emerging Lessons."

Aim

The ways of working and funding arrangements involved in the delivery of major flood and coastal schemes and projects are changing fast. The aim of this conference for flood and erosion risk professionals will be to showcase the developing and innovative partnership approaches to the effective delivery of schemes and projects. This will include the identification of the multiple benefits, working with partners, large consortia projects, framework agreements, shared services agreements, different contractual arrangements and risk management

Objectives

To understand the emerging approaches to partnership working, funding arrangements and client - contractor arrangements for the effective delivery of schemes and projects.

To illustrate this by highlighting schemes and projects that have used a wide variety of mechanisms and reviews that have assessed these emerging work patterns.

In particular to highlight the emerging learning from projects and schemes covering:
  • Achieving a clear view of shared benefits across funding stakeholders
  • Partnership funding
  • Shared service agreements
  • Environment Agency Frameworks
  • The work of large scale consortia on major projects
  • Contractual arrangements and ways of working that minimise risks to clients and contractors
Click here for more information or contact Bob Earll: bob.earll@coastms.co.uk

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The Costs of Flood Damage will Rise Along with Sea Levels

Flooding is a very expensive corollary of global warming. While we cannot connect individual weather events directly to global warming, the storm that hit Europe in early December is nonetheless a powerful reminder of what the future will look like as the world continues to warm. Much of the billion dollars worth of damage caused by Xaver is due to flooding caused by storm surges.

As global warming continues and ice keeps melting, sea levels will keep rising which will increase the damage caused by storm surges. A warmer planet not only increases the volume of sea water, it is also expected to increase precipitation in places that need it least. As reported by 350.org, global warming has already raised global sea level about 20 cm since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Scientists expect roughly 60 to 210 more cm of sea level rise this century, depending on whether or not we can limit greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs).

Flooding is a very costly phenomenon. A 2013 study in Nature concluded that flooding could cost the world’s cities $60 billion a year, even with major investments in flood protection. If we don’t make those investments, the cost could be up to $1 trillion a year.

These costs underscore the importance of moving away from energy sources that produce GHGs.  However fossil fuel companies in Europe and elsewhere are actively resisting efforts to engage more renewable sources of energy. As many in Europe are working to strengthen that continent's 2030 carbon reduction goals, fossil fuel interests like the Magritte Group, (a coalition of the CEOs of Europe's largest energy companies), are actively campaigning to decrease climate regulations.

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Talk - The Race to the North Pole: Climate Change and Biodiversity in Canada

The race to the North Pole: climate change and biodiversity in Canada will take place on Wednesday, December 11, 2013, at the University of Ottawa, Biosciences Complex – RM 140, 30 Marie Curie St., Ottawa, Ontario. The reception will take place at 6 pm and the presentation will commence at 7 pm. Parking is available in parking lot V (In front of Marion Hall). The Faculty of Science at the University of Ottawa is pleased to invite National Capital Region community members to this special evening with Department of Biology professor Jeremy Kerr (BSc ’93 – Biology).

Jeremy Kerr was recently appointed as the University Chair in Macroecology and Conservation Biology. Professor Kerr will give an exhilarating talk entitled

“The race to the North Pole: climate change and biodiversity in Canada.”

The evening will be an opportunity to learn from one of the University of Ottawa Faculty of Science’s rising stars.

For more information contact Kyle Bournes:
Phone: 613-562-5800 ext. 7946
E-mail: kbournes@uOttawa.ca

To RSVP click here.

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Video - Richard Branson on the Need to Protect the Arctic


In this video, Richard Branson, explains why we all have to do everything within our power to protect the Arctic.
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Video - The Arctic is Under Threat from Shell and Gazprom


The fossil fuel companies Shell and Gazprom have ambitious plans to exploit the Arctic's oil and gas reserves. Scientists have made it clear that to avoid the worst impacts of a hot planet (ie 6 degree temperature increase) we must leave the vast majority of carbon reserves underground. Arctic drilling increases global warming and imperils Arctic ecology. We know that drilling for oil and gas inevitably leads to spills. To make matters worse Gazprom's old and outdated drilling equipment present an elevated level of risk. Drilling in the Arctic will devastate the region's fragile ecosystem which is already suffering from a warming world.

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Video - Sea Level Rise: A Slow-Motion Disaster



Sea-level rise is a slow-moving threat that presents a tremendous risk to some of America's most populous cities. As climate change drives sea levels higher, and more Americans than ever are calling the coastal U.S. home, cities like Miami, New York and New Orleans will likely face billions of dollars in flood-related damages per year if nothing is done to address climate change. The Center for American Progress visited Norfolk, Virginia, a city on the front-lines of the fight against rising seas, to talk to residents and community leaders about their efforts to save the city and learn to live with the water. One thing is clear: doing nothing is not an option.

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Video - The Global Implications of Rapid Climate Change in the Arctic



Paul Beckwith is a part time professor at the University of Ottawa and a post graduate studying and researching abrupt climate change, with a focus on the arctic.


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Why Greens are Seeing Red in the 2013 Australian Elections

Hopes for a government serious about combating climate change in Australia were crushed by Labor party infighting. The election of a right of center coalition led by Tony Abbot spells the end of Australia's hope to play a leading role combating climate change. Kevin Rudd wrestled the leadership from Labor Prime Minister Julia Eileen Gillard after she demonstrated strong green leadership. Rudd ended Gillard's political career in a savage act of overt betrayal that may have cost labor the election and ended Australia's hopes for government leadership on climate change.

Kevin Rudd spent 3 years plotting Gillard's downfall he then proceeded to execute her politically as the nation watched. Gillard was the Leader of the Labor Party from 2010 to 2013 and she was the first female to be Prime Minister of Australia.

The Rudd Labor opposition promised to implement an emissions trading scheme (ETS) before the 2007 federal election which Labor won. Rudd, unable to secure support for his scheme in the Senate, dropped it.

In her 2010 election campaign, Gillard pledged to build a "national consensus" for a carbon price by creating a "citizens assembly", to examine "the evidence on climate change, the case for action and the possible consequences of introducing a market-based approach to limiting and reducing carbon emissions". The assembly was to be selected by an independent authority who would select people from the electoral roll using census data. The plan was never implemented.

After the 2010 Election, Gillard agreed to form a minority government with the Greens and Independents and replaced her "citizens assembly" plan with a climate change panel consisting of Labor, Greens and Independent members of Parliament. The panel ultimately announced backing for a temporary carbon tax, leading up to an Emissions Trading Scheme.

In the first hung parliament result in 70 years, the Gillard Government, with the support of the Australian Greens and some cross bench independents, negotiated the implementation of a carbon tax (the preferred policy of the Australian Greens), by which a fixed-price carbon tax would proceed to a floating-price ETS within a few years under the plans. The government proposed the Clean Energy Bill in February 2011, which the opposition claimed to be a broken election promise. The bill was passed by the Lower House in October 2011 and the Upper House in November 2011.

The Greens voted down Rudd’s first emissions trading scheme in 2009 because it “locked in” a low 5 percent emissions reduction target by 2020, and they insisted on leaving open the possibility of a tougher target on the advice of the authority before they agreed to Gillard’s scheme in 2011.

In his concession speech Rudd conceded defeat to Abbott but failed to acknowledge Gillard. The Coalition will have at least 90 seats in the new House of Representatives and Labor may hold more than 50.

Prior to the election Rudd said he was “terminating” the carbon tax in response to Abbott’s anti-carbon tax campaign. Frontbencher Mr Clare, who retained his Sydney seat, said Labor should not give up on its principles, including the need to have a price on carbon.

“I don't believe anyone in Labor is going to walk away from the issue of putting a price on carbon pollution. Because a failure to act on pollution is in fact just making the problem harder for our kids, and that's not the Labor way.”

Mr Bowen backed Labor's ongoing support for a carbon price.

“I don't think the Labor party should walk away from its core beliefs,” said Bill Shorten, the favorite to lead the Labor Party in opposition. “We believe climate change is real, we believe governments around the world should do something about it, we believe we should do something about it, and we believe a market mechanism is the right thing to do.”

The coalition crushed Labor by winning 88 seats to Labor's 57 in the 150-seat parliament. Rather than helping to increase Labor's support, Rudd's coup against Gillard hurt the party and the nation's green hopes. According to Sky News/Newspoll exit poll the two-party preferred vote was at 53-47, compared to 52-48 when the election was called, suggesting Rudd's campaign cost Labor votes.

The Coalition did not win the election, rather Labor lost it. Voters punished Labor for its mutinous disunity. Rudd not only murdered Gillard's political career, he destroyed Australia's best hope for responsible climate leadership.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Geothermal Heating Accelerating Greenland's Ice Melt

Everyone who follows the issue of melting ice knows that Northern ice is melting, but a new study shows that it is not only melting from above due to global warming, it is also melting from below. The fact that the ice is melting from above and below has important implications for scientific models.

The international research initiative IceGeoHeat led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences published their research in Nature Geoscience. The continental ice sheets play a central role in climate. GFZ scientists Alexey Petrunin and Irina Rogozhina have created a model which calculates ice melt from geothermal forces.

The Greenland lithosphere (the crust and upper mantle of the earth) is 2.8 to 1.7 billion years old and is only about 70 to 80 kilometers thick under central parts of Greenland. Presently the Greenland ice sheet loses about 227 gigatonnes of ice per year and contributes about 0.7 millimeters to the currently observed mean sea level change of about 3 mm per year.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Methane has been locked in the permafrost of the far north for thousands of years, but it is being released because of the thaw associated with global warming. The permafrost has been thawing rapidly over the last three decades and if this trend continues the consequences could be catastrophic. Referred to as a methane pulse, vast amounts of this destructive GHG could be released into the atmosphere. This will profoundly exacerbate global warming and may push us pass irreversible tipping points.

Methane is one of the worst greenhouse gases because it stays in the atmosphere more than 20 times longer than carbon dioxide. More methane equals more warming and the release of even more methane.

For more information see NBC's series called "Changing Planet" which explores the impact that climate change is having on our planet. Information in this series is provided by the National Science Foundation.

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The Race to Exploit the Arctic's Resources Ignores the Costs

Rather than just look myopically at the economic benefits of melting Arctic ice we need to calculate the economic impacts. As explained in a recent report, the disastrous economic impacts of a warming Arctic are not being adequately investigated. Neither the World Economic Forum (WEF) in its Global Risk Report nor the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook recognizes the potential economic threat from changes in the Arctic.

Melting Arctic ice is exposing vast mineral deposits as well as 30 percent of the worlds as yet untapped gas and 13 percent of untapped oil. We can also expect an ice free Arctic to give way to a number of new shipping routes. Lloyd’s of London has estimated that in the next decade we could see $100 billion investment the Arctic.

While many are eager to exploit the North's resources, we are slow to assess potentially catastrophic impacts.

We need to explore the link between sea-ice retreat and the strength and position of the jet stream. This relationship is thought to increase extreme winter and spring weather including the protracted cold spell in Europe in 2013. It is dangerously shortsighted to see the economic benefits of changes to the Arctic without an integrated analyses.

In 2012, noting that the far north is increasing in strategic importance and citing the need for informal dialogue among world leaders, the WEF launched its Global Agenda Council on the Arctic. While the authors of the report welcome this effort they clearly make the point that more action is needed. They suggest the WEF should invest in rigorous economic modelling and ask world leaders to factor the economic costs beyond resource extraction. They further suggest that the WEF should encourage innovative adaptation and mitigation plans.

We need more such discussions and further research to understand the global implications of changes taking place in the Arctic.

We need more economic models that incorporate feedback loops and tally the costs associated with the impacts of global warming on the Arctic.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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White Paper - Oil Spills in Arctic Waters

This White Paper is a compilation of research on oil spills in ice-covered Arctic waters and it offers suggestions for future study. It is subtitled, "An Introduction and Inventory of Research Activities and USARC Recommendations."  The authors identify research entities in governmental, nongovernmental, industrial, and private organizations, and provide an inventory of research projects.

Given that much work is currently in progress, they provide only a snapshot in time, and an introduction to the topic. While an in-depth evaluation of the research results, a prioritization of research and development gaps, and a critical examination of the connection between research and oil spill response capability are undoubtedly important topics, they are beyond the scope of this effort.

The authors hope that their foray into this subject encourages others to address these critical topics. Finally, the US Arctic Research Commission (USARC) closes this paper with recommendations for additional research on the topic of oil spills in icecovered Arctic waters.

Click here to access the White Paper (PDF). 

© 2013, US Arctic Research Commission.

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More Evidence that Arctic Warming is an Economic and Ecological Time Bomb

Although our understanding of the Arctic is far from complete, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests melting Arctic ice will free massive deposits of methane locked in the permafrost of the far north. This represents an unprecedented danger both economically and ecologically. The latest evidence for this ticking time bomb was presented in a report by Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope & Peter Wadhams presented in the journal Nature.

Melting Arctic ice is expected to have far reaching impacts well beyond the far north. One of the most grievous threats comes from the release of methane trapped in the permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea. The authors estimate that the cost of a massive methane release off the northern coast of Russia alone is $60 trillion. This is a startling figure when we consider that the value of the global economy in 2012 was estimated to be $70 trillion.

“As the amount of Arctic sea ice declines at an unprecedented rate, the thawing of offshore permafrost releases methane. A 50-gigatonne (Gt) reservoir of methane, stored in the form of hydrates, exists on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. It is likely to be emitted as the seabed warms, either steadily over 50 years or suddenly. Higher methane concentrations in the atmosphere will accelerate global warming and hasten local changes in the Arctic, speeding up sea-ice retreat, reducing the reflection of solar energy and accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The ramifications will be felt far from the poles.”

The release of methane will rapidly accelerate the rate at which the earth is warming and therefore the rate of global flooding, ocean acidification, altered ocean and atmospheric circulation. As a corollary we can expect more extreme heat, droughts and storms and their concomitant impacts on agriculture.

The authors of the study ran many scenerios using the PAGE09 integrated assessment model which calculates the impacts of climate change and the costs of mitigation and adaptation measures.

All their statistical modeling came to the same conclusion:

“There is a steep global price tag attached to physical changes in the Arctic.”

Even in the low-emissions case, the mean net present value of global climate-change impacts is $82 trillion without the methane release (methane pulse), an extra $37 trillion, or 45 percent is added.

The researchers found that the "methane pulse will bring forward by 15–35 years the average date at which the global mean temperature rise exceeds 2°C above pre-industrial levels."

It is clear that melting Arctic ice will have major implications for our oceans and our climate. The affects will be felt by all nations on earth, but some of the world's poorest nations will be hardest hit.

The full costs of climate change transcends economics and augurs an apocalyptic future that threatens civilization itself.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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