Feedback Loop Between Extreme Weather and Fossil Fuels Makes the Case for Clean Energy

As clean energy continues to grow storms continue to highlight the dangers of oil and gas. Fossil fuels and storms are locked in a perilous relationship that sees each contribute to the destructive force of the other. Extreme weather events have repeatedly ravaged Texas oil infrastructure.

Storms wreak havoc with both the economy and the environment. Preliminary estimates put the economic cost of Hurricane Harvey at $190 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in US history. There are also costs in the fossil fuel sector associated with Hurricane Harvey passing right through the hub of the US petroleum and natural gas industries in southeast Texas.

Oil companies including Royal Dutch Shell, Anadarko Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil shut down operations and evacuated employees from their offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil refineries also shut down leaving a million barrel shortfall. Crude oil prices have been steadily climbing with many fearing it could top $50 a barrel.

The disruption the fossil fuel industry in Texas significantly impacts domestic energy markets and creates a ripple effect on the national economy. As of September 01, 2017 the national average for regular was $2.54 a gallon, an increase of 18 cents in the last week. During this time prices jumped at least 10 cents a gallon in 24 hours in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and the Mid-Atlantic states. As of September 4th national average gas prices were $2.67 but some are predicting prices as high as $2.75 a gallon in the coming days. Some Dallas area gas stations were charging almost $4.00 a gallon. Many Dallas gas stations have run out of gas presaging long lines and shortages all the way up the east coast.

This is the fourth time in less than a decade that there has been massive storm related energy infrastructure disruptions in Texas. Climate change models predict that the intensity of storms will continue to increase and this will increase both economic and environmental impacts. As if to prove the point one of the strongest Hurricanes ever is currently lashing the Caribbean and barrelling towards the US mainland.

Before the dust settled from Hurricane Harvey another even stronger storm has formed in the Caribbean. It has been named Hurricane Irma and it is poised to hit the US mainland in the coming days. Hurricane Irma has been referred to as "potentially catastrophic" by CNN. It has maximum sustained wind speeds of 180 mph. That is well above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 hurricane. These intense storms reveal the destructive synergistic nexus between fossil fuels and climate.

The burning of fossil fuels emit greenhouse gases that trap heat and increase water vapor in the atmosphere. This in turn fuels extreme weather events that disrupt fossil fuel production, refinement and transportation. In addition to increasing fuel prices, these storms destroy fossil fuel infrastructure sometimes resulting in spills that contaminate the environment. This is especially true of Texas which is home to a dense concentration of fossil fuel infrastructure.

According to the EIA approximately 33 percent of US refining capacity comes from the Texas Gulf Coast. Approximately 25 percent of US natural gas production and 50 percent of US oil production originates in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. The latter accounts for almost 20 percent of US crude oil production.

Harvey is hardly the first storm to disrupt the fossil fuel industry. The last three hurricanes to hit the US Gulf Coast (Gustav and Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012) all affected oil and natural gas infrastructure. According to the EIA these three storms all shut in more than one million barrels per day of crude oil production and more than three billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. The storms also shut down significant pipeline and refining capacity. This will have both a national and a global affect. Residents of Canada are already feeling the affects of the storm at the pump.

Distributed energy makes sense in the context of climate change and increasingly intense extreme weather. Highly concentrated oil infrastructure is vulnerable to economic disruption and threatens national security. Flexible clean alternatives including onsite solar and wind facilities offer a more nimble approach to secure energy generation.

Clean energy sites are also subject to interruptions from extreme weather but these are minor compared to fossil fuels. Like the fossil fuel industry the burgeoning wind industry in Texas went off line in advance of Harvey but this did not impact access to electricity in Texas. Unlike renewables the production, refining and transportation of fossil fuels are all especially vulnerable to Hurricanes. The environmental, economic, energy and health impacts of a storm are far worse for fossil fuels than they are for renewables.

Fossil fuels still rely on an out-dated centralized model. The growth of both renewables and energy storage have pushed the US electricity grid towards a more diverse and distributed model. It would appear that the Energy Department shares the view that reforms are required.

At the same time that Harvey was making landfall in the US the Energy Department released its review of national grid resiliency. Despite the study's support for nuclear power and coal (it suggests the EPA should ease permitting requirements for new coal fired plants) the study also seems to indicate that there is value in integrating more renewables into the grid.

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Mother Nature Strikes Back: A Review of Extreme Weather in 2016

Extreme weather is a deadly corollary of climate change. A UN study found that between 1995 and 2015, 600,000 people died from natural disasters. Global warming is known to exacerbate the intensity of extreme weather events. We are already seeing clear evidence of climate change playing a role in a growing number of natural disasters. Thanks to advances in attribution science we can now see the role that climate change plays in driving a succession of increasingly severe extreme weather events.

According to a report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, floods accounted for 30 percent of the world's top ten natural disasters in 2015. In 2015, three of the world's top 10 natural disasters by the number of fatalities were floods. In first place was heat waves, accounting for four of the top 10.

The warming trend and associated extreme weather events continued in 2016, which has replaced 2015 as the hottest year on record. Decades of hot data are the harbingers of a climate catastrophe. As published in Insurance Journal, here is a list of some of the extreme weather events we experienced in 2016

• Flooding in China’s Yangtze Basin from May through August killed at least 475 people and caused $28 billion in losses.
• A drought in India that started earlier in the year and stretched through June caused about $5 billion in damage.
• Flooding in West Virginia and the mid-Atlantic in June killed 23 people and damaged more than 5,500 buildings.
• Typhoon Nepartak hit the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July, killing 111 people and causing at least $1.5 billion in damage.
• Flooding in northeast China in July killed 289 people and caused about $5 billion in damage.
• Temperatures reached 129 degrees (54 degrees Celsius) in Kuwait and Iraq in July.
• Flooding in Louisiana in August killed 13 people and caused around $15 billion in damage.
• Flooding in Sudan and South Sudan in July and August killed 129 people and damaged more than 41,000 buildings.
• A long heat wave coupled with high humidity afflicted the U.S. South and East. Savannah, Georgia, had 69 straight days when the temperature hit 90 or higher.
• Typhoon Lionrock hit Japan, China and Korea in August and killed 77 people while damaging more than 20,000 buildings.
• Spain set a record for the hottest September temperature recorded in Europe, with marks of 114 and 115 degrees.
• Localities in the United States broke nearly 15,000 daily records for hot nighttime minimum temperatures from May into September.

Hurricane Matthew wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Although not as severe the effects of the Hurricane were felt in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. What makes this hurricane noteworthy is that advances in attribution science are making it easier to see the role played by climate change.  The relationship between extreme weather and climate change was explored in a recent Scientific American article.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing about extreme weather in the US is the GOP's refusal to accept reality. Republicans ignored unprecedented heat and record breaking precipitation while boldly revealing policy platforms that will exacerbate the situation. The GOP's love of fossil fuels and disdain for climate action is equaled only by their hatred for science.

In the span of six months two once in 500 year storms have devastated Louisiana. Similar catastrophic flooding has gripped many pats of the world in 2016 including China, India, Macedonia, Pakistan and Sudan.

As reported by Damian Carrington in a Washington Post article, this warming trend has dire implications for extreme weather which costs lives, destroys crops and contributes to food insecurity.

"The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue...Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen...Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular," Carrington said.

The WMO said human-induced global warming had contributed to at least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.

"It is almost as if mother nature is making a statement," said climate scientist Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2016 extreme weather and climate events have adversely affected agriculture impacting the food security of more than 60 million people.

"Climate change is not like other issues that can be postponed from one year to the next,” he said. “The US and world are already behind; speed is of the essence because climate change and its impacts are coming sooner and with greater ferocity than anticipated."

The situation is dire as indicated by new research published at the end of 2016. The findings are from a Stanford University doctoral dissertation by Carolyn Snyder, a climate policy official at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As reported in Nature the research suggests the Earth is currently warmer than it has been in 100,000 years. The conclusion of the Snyder study suggests that current levels of fossil fuel use indicate the Earth is 'locked into' temperatures not Seen in 2 million years. The research suggests that we may see temperature rises of up to 9° Celsius.

As reported in an accompanying Nature article: "Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia." If Trump delivers on his promise to extract and burn even more fossil fuels the situation could be even worse that predicted by the research.

"The kinds of extreme weather we have seen over the past year or so will be routine all too soon, but then even worse records will be set," Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s leading climatologists, told Think Progress' Joe Romm.

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Event - Green Sports Alliance Summit: College Sports Sustainability Summit

PAC-12 will host the first conference wide College Sports Sustainability Summit. It will take place on June 27th 2017 in Sacramento, California. This event is part of the annual Green Sports Alliance Summit.

The College Sports Sustainability Summit is part of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy's (OSTP) call to action to tackle climate through sports. This event is supported by member universities that have pledged to take a leadership position in promoting sustainability through sports.

The mission of this event is to influence conferences and universities around the country. This summit will convene sustainability officers from across the conference to design new collective initiatives and share best practices to transform college sports into a platform for environmental progress.

“Our member universities and athletics departments are national leaders in minimizing their impact on the environment,” said Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott. “In hosting this summit, we look forward to convening an esteemed group of experts to design new initiatives and share best practices to enhance our collective efforts.”

The pledge was part of a larger push to use sports to address climate change. Earlier this year, the OSTP put out a call to action to capture new commitments and actions that leagues, teams, and organizations were taking in the climate space. Today’s announcement by the OSTP featured the Pac-12’s commitment along with other organizations’ pledges to minimize the environmental impact of their footprint and increase their response to counter the impact of climate change.

As part of the Pac-12’s pledge, Pac-12 Networks will also continue to shine a light on meaningful sustainability initiatives across the Conference.

Previous programming on Pac-12 Networks highlighted the Green Sports Alliance’s Zero Waste Challenge on Pac-12 campuses. In 2015, the Pac-12 joined the Green Sports Alliance, following the lead of the conference’s 12 institutions, which were already members of the Alliance.

The Pac-12 was the first collegiate sports conference to count all its members as Alliance participants.

About the Pac-12 Conference: Recognized as the 'Conference of Champions' for its unequaled NCAA Cohampionships, the Pac-12 Conference comprises the 12 leading universities located in the Western United States: The University of Arizona, Arizona State University, the University of California-Berkeley, the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), the University of Colorado, the University of Oregon, Oregon State University, Stanford University, the University of Southern California, the University of Utah, the University of Washington and Washington State University. For more information on the Conference’s programs, member institutions, and Commissioner Larry Scott.

About the Green Sports Alliance: The Green Sports Alliance leverages the cultural and market influence of sports to promote healthy, sustainable communities where we live and play. The nonprofit does so by inspiring sports leagues, teams, venues, their partners, and millions of fans to embrace renewable energy, healthy food, recycling, water efficiency, species preservation, safer chemicals, and other environmentally preferable practices. Alliance members represent over 370 teams, venues and universities from 20 leagues in 14 countries.

For more information or to register click here.

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The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)

It is widely accepted that warmer seas contribute to hurricanes but there are also a number of other factors that contribute to extreme weather events. Here is a review of the evidence linking climate change and Hurricane Matthew.

Matthew has already wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it has killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Four Americans are known to have died due to the storm. There are currently states of emergency in effect in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Although Matthew has been downgraded from a level 5 to a level 1 hurricane it still packs a punch.  It looks as though central Florida was spared the worst, but cities along the East Coast are bracing for the storm.

Florida is no stranger to hurricanes. In 2004, four major hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) caused billions of dollars in damage in the state. These storms were followed by Hurricane Katrina a year later.

The cause of these extreme weather events was the subject of cautious reflection in the scientific community.

While we know that climate models predict more intense extreme weather events scientist are very careful about attributing any one storm to climate change. That is not to say there is no link, it merely reflects the cautious approach taken by scientists.

Until very recently there was inadequate data to make a conclusive pronouncement. We now have more reliable satellite systems, which allow better tracking.

Scientists are reluctant to assign any given weather event to climate change. Initially, hurricane Sandy was dismissed as being unrelated to climate change. However, scientists subsequently confirmed that climate change did play a role in Sandy.

The science connecting hurricanes and climate change has improved. Some scientific observations are obvious. One such recent observation corroborating the worsening hurricane trend came from the East Pacific basin which saw Hurricane Patricia generate the highest wind speeds ever recorded on Earth.

Here is a summary of what we know about the climate change/hurricane connection: Warmer oceans spawn more storms and more storms will increase rainfall and water vapor. These phenomena can fuel more intense hurricanes.

The Washington Post delved into the question of the science linking Hurricane Matthew to climate change. They quoted a recent scientific overview on the links between hurricanes and climate.-climate:

“While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in [tropical cyclone] numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins.”

The situation in the Atlantic is complex. To understand the relationship between climate change and hurricanes in the Atlantic we must factor natural cycles (such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). We must even evaluate the impact of reductions in atmospheric aerosols that occurred following tighter regulations on these emissions.

Even when we factor these phenomena it is still very hard to attribute an individual storm to a changing climate.

Still, there are reasons to believe that although other factors are involved, Matthew has been exacerbated by climate change.

Kevin Trenberth, a researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told the Washington Post there seems to be a combination of the overall warming trend and natural variability, such as the El Nino-La Nina cycle, behind what we’re seeing: "The overall increase in moisture is about 5 to 6% from climate change, and in a hurricane that gets doubled because the storm intensifies and increases the convergence of moisture. But in the Atlantic, in the year following El Nino, the [sea surface temperature] tends to be higher in the subtropics (because with El Nino the winds are lighter and more sunny skies), and indeed in the subtropics east of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, [sea surface temperatures] have been running 2 deg C (3 to 4F) above normal, and moisture 10 to perhaps 15% above normal. Indeed this was the region that fed the Louisiana floods (not so much the Gulf). So the potential has been there: a natural variability component on top of the global warming to produce a very strong storm."

Matthew had a very rapid rate of escalation to a category 5 and it is also very persistent. These statistically anomalous observations are consistent with climate change but no clear causal link can be drawn. While observations should not be confused with proof they are nonetheless consistent with scientific predictions.

As the world warms, sea levels are rising and this will worsen the impacts of storms. Even small increases in sea level can have a big impact on storm surges.

Climate change has influenced the strength and endurance of Matthew.  While the evidence may not be sufficiently rigorous for a climatologist, those who extrapolate and draw conclusions from existing evidence may prove to be more accurate than the understandably cautious claims of scientists.

It is important to note that the data in no way disproves the connection between Matthew and a changing climate. However, scientists require an abundance of evidence before they will say anything with any degree of confidence.

In a Think Progress article, the venerable  Joe Romm pulls no punches in connecting this hurricane and climate change. "Matthew has already set a number of records — and global warming is giving it a boost," Romm asserts.

He then goes on to review some of Matthew's record-breaking feats and squarely attributes them to climate change:

• longest-lived Category 4 (or higher) Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. 
• most accumulated cyclone energy of any Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Caribbean

He then cites several papers that support a close relationship between hurricanes and climate change. One showing a 20 - 30 percent increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes in recent years. A few other studies show an increase in hurricane intensity including in the North Atlantic.

These observations are corroborated by a host of other findings including the fact that the summer of 2016 was the hottest summer in recorded history and possibly the hottest in "thousands of years."

The oceans are warmer and we are also seeing a sharp rise in the most damaging storm surges.

One tropical cyclone expert just warned, "Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could double or triple in the coming decades."

Romm comes to the logical conclusion that in the face of the evidence, "We simply cannot cut carbon pollution fast enough."


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Green Sports Alliance: Making Athletics more Sustainable

With 344 members, 300 teams, 172 venues and 20 leagues, in 14 different countries the Green Sports Alliance is a major force in sustainable athletics.  The Green Sports Alliance helps sports leagues to be more sustainable.

Sports are an incredibly powerful activity that garner the attention and interest of billions of people around the world. With this is mind the Green Sports Alliance strives to leverage the cultural and market influence of sports to promote healthy, sustainable communities.

They inspire sports leagues, teams, venues, their partners and millions of fans to embrace renewable energy, healthy food, recycling, water efficiency, species preservation, safer chemicals and other environmentally preferable practices.

The Green Sport Alliance brings together venue operators, sports team executives and environmental scientists to develop more sustainable practices in sport. Their collaborative approach has generated innovative and cost competitive solutions.

The Green Sports Alliance was conceived and founded by the Seattle Seahawks, Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle Sounders FC, Seattle Mariners, Seattle Storm, Vancouver Canucks and the Natural Resources Defense Council with support from Bonneville Environmental Foundation, Green Building Services and Milepost Consulting.

Click here to download the Green Sports Alliance Summit highlights (pdf) or here for more information.

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Infographic - Extreme Weather (Pakistan, East Africa, Pilippines)

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"Catastrophic" Ice Storm Slams the Southeast and Heads North

The US southeast from Alabama through South Carolina was hit with a very unusual ice and snow storm. Officials and forecasters in several states in the Deep South called the storm "catastrophic." The storm is being blamed for at least 15 deaths in the South and hundreds of car accidents.

The winter storm has impacted an area stretching from northern Florida all the way to Maine, but it is being felt most in the South where people are least accustomed to ice and snow. 

Already three quarters of a million people are without power and that number is expected to increase as more ice and snow fall. These power outages could leave people in the cold, dark for days. An ice storm in the Atlanta area in 2000 left more than 500,000 homes and businesses without power. After a snowstorm stranded thousands two weeks ago, the mayor of Atlanta, urged people to stay home. This left the business district virtually devoid of life. The area includes the headquarters for companies like Home Depot, UPS, Delta and Coca-Cola.

President Barack Obama declared a state of emergency in Georgia, ordering federal agencies to help the state and local response during the storm. Georgia also declared an emergency for around half of the state and the National Guard is on standby. More than 70 shelters are now open.

Winter weather woes were apparent all throughout the Deep South and extended all the way up the east coast to Maine. The storm closed much of Washington and dropped as much as 18 inches of snow in some areas. Most schools along the east coast were closed. About 5,771 domestic US flights were canceled and another 1,235 are delayed

Many states in the south have declared an emergency. In North Texas, at least four people died in traffic accidents on icy roads. In northeastern Alabama, two National Guard wreckers were dispatched to help clear jackknifed 18-wheelers on Interstate 65.

Parts of northeast Mississippi could see up to 4 inches of snow. South Carolina, which hasn't seen a major ice storm in nearly a decade, could get a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of ice and as much as 8 inches of snow in some areas. Thousands of flights have been cancelled due to the storm.

At the end of 2013 Toronto and much of southern Ontario suffered from the crippling effects of a massive ice storm. More recently the central European country of Slovenia was encased in a thick layer of ice.

Ice storms can arise whenever warm air is sandwiched between two pockets of cold air (see graphic on the left). one high up in the atmosphere and one at the surface. Precipitation begins as snow high in the atmosphere, it then turns to rain as it falls through the layer of warm air. As the raindrops fall through the cold air at the bottom, they become supercooled, dipping below the freezing point yet remaining in a liquid state. When the droplets of water make contact with a tree or electrical pylons they form a heavy sheet of ice.

Climate change skeptics like to point to cold weather as evidence that the globe isn't warming. However, global average temperatures clearly show that the globe is getting hotter. It is possible and even likely that climate change will increase the likelihood of periods of extreme cold. Despite these cold snaps the planet is still showing an unmistakeable warming trend.

While no individual weather event can be linked to climate change, there may be a paradoxical relationship between cold weather and global warming. In colder climates like Toronto and Slovenia, warmer winter temperatures can increase the intensity and quantity of freezing rain and wet snow. Whereas in warmer climates, such as the US southeast colder than normal temperatures are the catalysts for an ice storm.

A cold snap is thought to be caused by stratospheric warming which can slow the wind speeds of the arctic atmosphere and push the colder air (often called the polar vortex) further south. As the Arctic ice melts the sea absorbs more light/heat from the sun, which in turn alters the jet-stream and shifts the polar vortex southward.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Video - A Satellite View of Weather in 2013

This is what a year's worth of weather looks like on Earth. In this video you can see Super Typhoon Haiyan, October’s freak blizzard in the Midwest, powerful windstorms in Europe in November and December, and tropical storms throughout the year.

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Freak Weather: Alaska is Warmer than Alabama

The weather in the US has been turned upside down with the far north being warmer than the deep south. At the end of January 2014, the temperature in northern Alaska reached an all time high according to the National Weather Service in Fairbanks. While a warm air mass in Alaska is breaking records in the far north, southern states are suffering under the influence of another polar vortex. It is a twisted climatic irony that Alabama is far colder than Alaska.

The far north is suffering from the impacts of global warming much more than anywhere else on earth. The Arctic is an average of 5.58 degrees C. above normal.

In addition to the cold weather, southern states were paralyzed by a freak snowstorm on Tuesday January 28. The storm caused a number of fatal vehicular crashes and hundreds of fender-benders in central Alabama. Ice shut down roadways in Florida and Louisiana and children were forced to hunker down in their schools overnight.

Emergency declarations were issued in Texas, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina and other southern states. Temperatures in Atlanta fell to 14 degrees Fahrenheit (-10 Celsius) while on Sunday January 26, the temperatures in Northern Alaska climbed to 52 degrees Fahrenheit (11 Celsius). These are the warmest temperatures ever recorded for this time of year in the 92 year history of record keeping for the area.

The US weather picture at the end of January is yet another example of a changing climate. It is occurrences such as this that bring to life the idea of global weirding to explain anomalous weather.

© 2014, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Extreme Weather and Existential Reflections on Life in the Anthropocene

This article was written in November for Global Warming is Real. As 2013 winds down, it is appropriate that we consider extreme weather events as a focal point of reflection.  These events can help us to marshal the resolve we need to take a science based look at the facts and consider the ways that we can act for a better future.

The recent spate of deadly tornadoes in the U.S. and the carnage of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines are poignant opportunities for us to reflect on the future of civilization. These events are tangible reminders of the sometimes intangible reality of human existence in the anthropocene. Extreme weather affords an opportunity to come to terms with the evidence that shows how human activities are degrading the Earth’s ecosystems.

While it is difficult to attribute any individual extreme weather event to global warming, when looked at over time, we see a convincing pattern.

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), from 1953 to 1983, the U.S. Averaged 26.65 disasters per year. In the last 29 years, the average number of U.S. disasters has risen to 91.4 per year, representing an increase of more than 240 percent.

According to NASA’s Earth Observatory, whether or not global warming is responsible for this increase in natural disasters, it does speak to our future. As stated in the Earth Observatory website, climate change will impact future catastrophes, “changes in climate not only affect average temperatures, but also extreme temperatures, increasing the likelihood of weather-related natural disasters.”

The intense thunderstorms that swept across the U.S. Midwest on Sunday are yet another warning calling us to deal with climate change. This storm follows on the heals of the devastating Typhoon that recently wreaked havoc in the Philippines.

On Sunday, November 17th, a large number of violent thunderstorms and as many as 77 tornadoes touched down in 12 U.S. states. These events killed at least 8 people, wounded many others and left a trail of destruction. Entire towns have been decimated and scores of homes have been wiped off the face of the earth. As terrible as this is, it is nothing compared to Typhoon Haiyan which has killed between four and ten thousand and rendered four million people homeless.

Scientists like Professor Will Steffen, a researcher at the ANU and member of the Climate Council, have linked Typhoon Haiyan to climate change, others describe it as being exacerbated by global warming. The relationship between tornadoes and climate change is more complex and harder to predict than hurricanes (typhoons, cyclones).

Understanding convective available potential energy, (CAPE) may offer us insights into the relationship between tornadoes and climate change as this measure represents the energy that powers storms. It is determined by the combination of moisture and temperature differences between the ground and higher regions of the atmosphere. It is known that global warming leads to an increase in CAPE and this in turn leads to an increase in thunderstorms which can spawn tornadoes.

The relationship between global warming and tornadoes was discussed in a 2007 Scientific American interview with climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. While he predicted more hurricanes due to global warming he also suggested there may be an impact on tornadoes.

“Of course, tornadoes are very much a weather phenomenon. They come from certain thunderstorms, usually supercell thunderstorms that are in a wind shear environment that promotes rotation,” Trenberth said. “The main climate change connection is via the basic instability of the low-level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. The oceans are warmer because of climate change.”

Grady Dixon, an associate professor of geosciences at Mississippi State University who studies tornado climatology also weighed in on the connection between tornadoes and global warming.  ”The most common finding is a warming environment leads to more storms and more intense storms.” Paradoxically, Dixon also pointed out that a warming climate means warmer temperatures in the north which should decrease wind shear and may lead to fewer tornadoes.

Harold Brooks of the National Weather Center recently talked about a condensing effect, meaning more tornadoes could occur on fewer days of the year.  Jeff Trapp, a professor of atmospheric science at Purdue University said the tornado season may be expanded by a warming world. ”We would see an increase in the number of days that could be favorable for severe thunderstorm and tornado formation,” he said.
Trapp also said that the “CAPE increases with time in a globally warmed world, mainly because the temperature near the ground and lower parts of the atmosphere increases and becomes more humid…In a globally warmed future world, that thunderstorm should be more intense.”

Applied environmental geoscience major Derrek Davey said the devastation from the storms has a lot to do with global warming.

“We have measured that we have increased our global temperature 1 degree. This does not seem like much, but it is a huge factor with ice caps melting. More water equals . . . more devastation from storms.”

We know that storms and weather-related events are clearly connected to temperature. “So it should not be a big surprise to find that the rapid average global warming we’ve seen since the Industrial Revolution would affect them.” said Alice Mulder, chair of the Environmental Issues Committee.  “[G]lobal warming does change the base conditions that make some of these events more likely.”

It is important to note that the exact relationship between climate change and tornadoes is still not very well understood. Scientists do not know how global warming will impact the frequency or intensity of tornadoes. However, the absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.

In 2011, the U.S. suffered through 1,700 tornadoes which is the second-deadliest tornado season in history. But 2012 and 2013 did not see elevated numbers of tornadoes. However, just as looking at one extreme weather event does not prove or disprove climate change, looking at tornado data over the course of a few years does not necessarily contradict the notion that there is a trend.

Over the course of a few years we can expect to see some variability, science looks at weather trends over much larger time frames. While the nature of science will always entertain a degree of uncertainty, more than 95 percent of climate scientists are in agreement about anthropogenic global warming. They also acknowledge that this will have serious implications for the health of the planet.

It remains to be seen whether seas will rise by 3 feet or by 10 feet, we also are not certain if the average global temperature will climb by 4 degrees or by 7. What we do know is that it is getting warmer and seas are rising. We know that warming is related to extreme weather.

We should leave investigation of the details to climate scientists and the public should be focusing on what we do know and its implications for the planet. The relationship between global warming and extreme weather should not be derailed by the few remaining — albeit powerful – skeptics who try to undermine the veracity of the vast body of climate science by pointing to examples of uncertainty.

These impacts of climate change are catastrophic. This is not some theoretical notion for the distant future, this is a fact here and now. People are already dying due to disease, food shortages, heat waves and air quality. As reported in the Daily Beast, a 2012 Climate Vulnerability Monitor report indicates that global warming is already killing four-hundred thousand people each year.

Anthropogenic climate change adversely impacts the health of humans and many other species of animal and plant life. This is a fact borne out in numerous studies and reports including those published by the United Nations, World Health Organization (WHO) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In March, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, the commander of the United States Pacific Command, told security and foreign policy specialists in Cambridge, Mass., that global climate change is the greatest threat the United States faces — more dangerous than terrorism, Chinese hackers and North Korean nuclear missiles.

Extreme weather events help people to see what climate change looks like. People in the U.S., even those that belong to the Republic party, traditionally a bastion of climate denial, are coming to terms with the veracity of global warming. As reported in the Guardian, a new study from Stanford University’s social psychologist Jon Krosnick found that “a vast majority of red-state Americans believe climate change is real and at least two-thirds of those want the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Whether or not Typhoon Haiyan or the tornadoes in the U.S. are directly caused by climate change is not the point. The issue that is highlighted by these phenomenon encourages us to embrace the scientific evidence. We know that extreme weather events are expected to intensify as global warming proceeds.

Violent climatic occurrences are consistent with climate models which predict increasingly severe extreme weather events as the earth warms. While we may not be able to be certain about the attribution of specific weather events, we know the earth is warming, we know that the oceans are rising as well. We also know that a warmer world increases the likelihood of precipitation, storm surges, flooding and extreme weather.
As the Prince of Wales said recently, ‘The devastating impact of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines should surely have been a poignant and telling reminder of the intimacy and interdependence of man’s relationship with the natural world.”

Despite critics who claim Charles overstated the case, we have good reason to question the ways in which we relate to the planet. Even if we are foolish enough to ignore climate models that predict more extreme weather, we will still be subject to sea level rise and ocean acidification among other adverse affects.
Extreme weather demands that we face the civilization-altering impacts we are having on the planet. The challenge of the Anthropocene forces us to reflect on what it means to be human. This is the great existential question of our times.

To quote the immortal words of Shakespear’s Hamlet:

“To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,”

We are destroying the Earth upon which all life depends, and we must reconcile ourselves to the implications of our actions. As Roy Scranton commented in the Times, “If we want to learn to live in the Anthropocene, we must first learn how to die.”

Regardless of the causal attribution for Typhoon Haiyan and the recent U.S. Tornadoes, it is no exaggeration to say that climate change poses a threat to life on earth. Extreme weather events offer a glimpse into the future and this provides an opportunity for us to reflect on the choice between accepting our impending death or collectively resolving to change our ways.

Source: Global Warming is Real

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The Middle East Hit by Anomalous Winter Storm

Almost unheard of cold weather and snowstorms have blanketed the Middle East. Both Egypt and Israel have been hit hard with record cold and snowfalls more characteristic of Canada than two of the warmest and driest places on earth.

Starting on the night of Wednesday December 11 and extending into the weekend, Israel was hit by the heaviest winter snowstorm in 60 years. The storm prompting school closures, canceled flights, snarled traffic and blocked access routes to the Israeli capital. Not since December 1953 has Israel seen so much snow including areas as far south as the Negev Desert on Friday.

Snow is not the only weather story, flooding is also an issue in Tel Aviv, as parts of the city’s boardwalk are under water due to heavy rain and the Ayalon River continues to rise.

On Friday December 13, Egypt including some Cairo suburbs saw snowfall for the first time in 112 years other part of the country were ravaged by heavy rains. Parts of the Sinai Peninsula were blanketed by snow. The snow extended all the way to the Mediterranean coast and included the coastal city of Alexandria.

Turkey, Syria were also hit by the cold weather and heavy snows. In Turkey they have been below the monthly average by almost 10C.

The weather story was compounded by high winds and cold temperatures. While the snow may be exciting for children it is yet another indication that a warming planet is causing more moisture to evaporate into the atmosphere and fall as heavy precipitation.

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Europe Pounded by its Worst Storm in Decades

A powerful storm swept across Europe early in December smashing into coastal communities on the North Atlantic and North Sea. Extreme weather events have garnered a great deal of attention of late, in particular the horrific Typhoon in the Philippines, however Europe is also being pounded by its own climate extremes. A storm called Xaver has brought tidal surges and hurricane force winds that have killed at least seven people in northern Europe. There has also been widespread flooding and hundreds of thousands of people are without electricity.

The deadly storm which has included heavy snowfalls has killed at least seven people in Poland, the UK, Sweden and Denmark. Fallen trees are making some roads impassible and flights, rail and ferry services have all been disrupted or canceled. Many schools have also been closed.

Winds of up to 228km/h (142 mph) battered Scotland and England's east coast experienced its worst tidal surge in 60 years. About 10,000 homes had to be evacuated in Norfolk and Suffolk and several homes fell into the sea at Hemsby. The Thames Barrier was closed to protect London from the storm surge. In north Wales residents had to be rescued by lifeboat crews.

In northern Germany winds gusted up to nearly 150km/h (93mph) and Hamburg experienced its biggest tidal surges since the 1960s, flooding the town including the historic fish market. The Elbe river rose 6m (20ft) above its average level. 

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Source: EDF

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Infographic - Extreme Weather: A Survival Guide

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Global Extreme Weather 2013 Timeline (Tiki-Toki)

In this post Tiki-Toki reviews some of the extreme weather events that have occurred around the globe in 2013. The pattern for extreme events that we saw in 2012 continued into 2013. In early 2013, parts of the Southern Hemisphere witnessed record-high temperatures, with Australia experiencing its hottest month in January 2013 since record-keeping began more than a century ago. Meanwhile, the central and northeastern United States saw record snowfall and blizzard conditions. Precipitation continued to be extreme throughout the spring, with Spain seeing its wettest March on record and China experiencing its wettest May since 1973. At the same time, New Zealand saw its worst drought in three decades, and California experienced its driest year-to-date. To illustrate this pattern, the World Resources Institute put together a timeline of extreme climate and weather events in 2013, which builds on the previous 2012 timeline.

Source: Tiki-Toki

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Two extreme weather reports released at COP 19/CMP 9 lend support to the need for climate finance. The UN has indicates that this year was one of the warmest years on record and a Global Climate Risk Index shows that the countries most vulnerable to extreme weather are also some of the poorest. The top ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. On Wednesday November 10 the UN declared that the first nine months of 2013 were the seventh warmest on record since records began in 1850. 2013 is tied with 2003 with an average global land and ocean surface temperatures 0.48C above the 1961-1990 average. WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud indicated that growing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) mean that warming is inevitable.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) further announced that there is a trend of extreme weather and they stated that the impact of storms like Typhoon Haiyan are being exacerbated by rising sea levels. While it is impossible to attribute an individual weather event to climate change, that should not be taken to mean that there is no relationship. They clearly stated that rising seas make coastal populations more vulnerable to storm surges. Seas have risen by about 20 cms (8 inches) in the past century.

In addition to Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most intense storms in history, the WMO report referenced extreme weather events like Australia's 2013 heatwave, and widespread floods (from Sudan to Europe). Japan was also mentioned due the fact that 2013 saw the nation's warmest summer on record.

As explained in the recent IPCC AR5 report, scientists predict with increasing certainty (95% up from 90%) that humans are the cause of global warming. The report also indicates that in a warming world we can expect more extreme weather along with rising seas.

The Global Climate Risk Index index was assembled by a think tank called Germanwatch with data from Munich Re, it indicates that some of the poorest nations are also the most vulnerable to extreme weather. The index lists the ten countries most affected by climate change in 2012. Ironically, the countries that are suffering most have contributed the least GHGs.

Here is the 2012 list ranked in order of risk:

Haiti
the Philippines
Pakistan
Madagascar
Fiji
Serbia
Samoa
Bosnia/Herzegovina
Russia
Nigeria

Here is the list ranking long terms risks (1993 - 2012):

Honduras
Myanmar
Haiti
Nicaragua
Bangladesh
Vietnam
the Philippines
the Dominican Republic and Mongolia (equal 8th)
Thailand and Guatemala (equal 10th)

The Philippines and Haiti made both lists. As developing countries, these nations are ill equipped to deal with extreme weather. Lending support to the need for climate finance, a subject that many hope will garner support at this years climate negotiations in Warsaw.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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