Showing posts with label tipping points. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tipping points. Show all posts

Arctic Climate Feedback Loops: Heat, Melting Ice and Fires

The Arctic is being ravaged by a trifecta of three interrelated phenomenon that are all connected by climate change. Global warming is contributing to more heat waves. Hotter average temperatures in the Arctic are also melting the ice and causing wildfires.

These three phenomenon are interacting synergistically to amplify climate changes. These interrelationships can also be described as climate feedback loops, meaning they are vicious cycles that accelerate warming. Various permutations of feedback loops can be found between these three phenomenon.


Heat Waves

This year's hot summer is but the latest example of decades of hot data. Weather in the Arctic is completely out of whack and this should concern us all. The world is warming because of climate change but in the Arctic that warming is taking place twice as fast.  The Arctic acts as a global climate regulator, so what we see happening there has implications for us all.

Climate change is causing the Arctic spring to start 16 days early than it did a decade ago, it is also causing algae blooms. This is the finding of a study by researchers from the University of California, Davis that was published last March in the journal Scientific Reports. Last winter the temperature in the Arctic was 3°C warmer than average and in the month of February it was 10°C warmer in some places.

These Arctic heatwaves are unprecedented and they have stunned scientists. "The extended warmth really has staggered all of us," said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute. Calling these heatwaves statistical anomalies belittles the reality. "It’s just crazy, crazy stuff," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder Colorado.

In Northern Siberia, along the coast of the Arctic Ocean temperatures were 90°F on July fifth that is 40°F above normal. "It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north," meteorologist Nick Humphrey was quoted as saying in the Washington Post.

Melting Ice

This record breaking warmth is occurring against the backdrop of melting ice. We are seeing diminishing sea ice, declining glaciers and thawing permafrost both on land and on the ocean floor.

Last February, Arctic sea ice had shrunk 62,000 square miles below last year's record low. This is more than a half a million square miles below the 30 year normal.  Recently a massive section of ice disappeared in Greenland. Ice is disappearing in the Arctic and there is not much doubt about why. "Climate change is the overriding thing," data center senior scientist Walt Meier said.

Melting ice also increases temperatures through a phenonomenon known as the albeido effect.  Ice reflects light back into space, when there is less ice, less light is reflected back into space and this drives surface temperatures even higher.

Climate change has shrunk the glacier on Sweden's highest peak. A Stockholm University geography professor claims that during July the summit of Kebnekaise mountain fell by four metres and is no long Sweden's highest peak. Glaciers in Canada's high Arctic are also disappearing according to satellite imagery. The 200 meter thick ice shelves are collapsing at an increasing rate and risk disappearing altogether. This is the conclusion of researchers from the University of Ottawa who published a study in June in the Journal of Glaciology. European and Canadian glaciers are not the only Arctic glaciers that are melting, so are those in Alaska.

The most obvious consequence of melting Arctic ice is sea level rise, however there are other even more apocalyptic implications. The permafrost on the ground and on the ocean floor is also melting and this is unleashing vast quantities of methane a potent greenhouse gas.

The permafrost is also releasing CO2 the primary GHG. It only covers around 8 percent of the Arctic land surface but there is 1,500 billion tons of carbon locked in the permafrost. This is half the global total in amount of carbon the ground and twice the amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere. According to a NASA study published last month the rate at which carbon is released from the permafrost into the atmosphere is accelerating.  The study concluded that Arctic carbon spends 13 percent less time locked in frozen soil that it did four decades ago. 

Approximately 1.9 million square kilometres of the Arctic is composed of either forested and non-forested peatland. When Arctic peatlands thaw they are also prone to greenhouse gas intensive wildfires.

Wildfires

The link between climate change heat and wildfires is increasingly well documented. Extreme heat in the Arctic is causing unprecedented wildfires that have serious global implications.  Severe drought and heat in northern Sweden ignited more than 80 wildfires this summer that burned more than 30,000 hectares across the country.

A total of at least 11 large fires burned in Sweden's Arctic. The main culprit appears to be the hot dry conditions which have made vegetation highly combustible. Four northern Swedish communities were evacuated and tens of thousands have been cautioned to remain indoors to reduce smoke inhalation.

Sweden is not the only Arctic nation that has been plagued with wildfires. A bit more than one year ago Greenland's thawed peatland was ablaze, in 2014 fires ravaged parts of Canada's Boreal forest. Russia has also seen an increase in fires in the far north as has Norway, Finland, and the United States.

The Guardian quotes climate scientist Vincent Gauci as saying that heat as the catalyst that make these fires possible. The threat can be expected to increase as the planet continues to warm.

Wildfires are not only caused by climate change, they also add to it. Wildfires spew vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and this causes planetary warming that is exacerbated by increasing Arctic wildfires. To add insult to injury, wildfires in the Arctic can dramatically darken sea ice reducing the albeido effect and further accelerate warming.

Feedback loops

The Arctic is especially prone to negative climate feedback loops. Climate change induced warming causes wildfires that emit carbon and increase global warming. Heat also causes the thawing and drying of Arctic peatlands and when they burn they release significantly more carbon than wildfires elsewhere. This accelerates global warming and sets the stage for more fires.

The feedback loops between heat, ice and fire may even augur tipping points from which we have no hope of recovering.

Related
Heat Connects Wildfires to Climate Change
Why the Fate of the Arctic Should be of Concern to Us All
The Dangerous Feedback Loop Between Wildfires and Climate Change
Feedback Loops Between Wildfires Peat and Carbon
Arctic Warming Feedback Loops: Algae Blooms and Thawing Permafrost
Extreme Weather and Fossil Fuels Feedback Loop Makes the Case for Clean Energy
The State of Arctic Warming and Melting Ice
Rising CO2 Emissions and Ongoing Heat Records Especially in the Arctic
More Evidence of Historic Arctic Warming: Lake Sediment and Ice Cores
Arctic Sea Ice is Disappearing

Tornadoes and Floods Underscore the Costs of Global Warming

This article was originally written in the spring of 2011 after an unusual number of killer tornadoes and floods ravaged the US, it reviews the increasing costs of extreme weather in a warming world. Tornadoes along with Hurricane Irene and most recently Hurricane Sandy, make a powerful case for aggressive efforts to address climate change.
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The wave of tornadoes and floods in the spring of 2011 are a small preview of what life will look like in a world ravaged by global warming. The US Global Change Research Program has warned of more extreme weather events in the future as the planet gets warmer.

When it comes to tornadoes, Spring 2011 was one of the deadliest and most destructive seasons in American history. The tornado that hit Joplin on May 22 was one of the deadliest tornadoes ever. The EF-5 wedge tornado, that swept thru Joplin was over a mile wide, it completely destroying about 20% of the town, killing 160 people and causing $2.8 billion in damage. The southern state tornadoes that touched down between April 22 and 28 are likely to surpass 2004’s Hurricane Ivan as the costliest natural disaster in Alabama’s history.

On May 24th 2011 we witnessed one of the largest geographical regions of high tornado risk in America history. This is the fourth such high risk day this year, meaning the fourth day where there are ideal conditions for the widespread formation of tornadoes  Each of the 3 previous high risk days spawned at least 52 tornadoes.

Although the total number is still unknown, many deadly tornadoes touched down on May 24th. In Oklahoma large, violent tornadoes touched down around Oklahoma City south of Hinton. Significant tornado related damage was reported near Canton and in Goldsby. 

Other tornadoes were reported in Dewey and Blaine counties as well as Logan County including the city of Guthrie. A tornado was spotted on the ground just Northwest of Joplin. The suburbs of Dallas just east of Euless and Lindell, Virginia also reported tornadoes.

Tornadoes are not the only natural disasters that are stealing headlines in 2011. The Midwest and the South are once again in the middle of record floods. The Mississippi River grew six times its normal size and police were forced to evacuate parts of Memphis. The floods have produced the highest water levels on record for the 70-mile stretch between Missouri and Tennessee.

Flooding could cost $2.2 billion in damage to more than 21,000 homes, according to analysis by research firm CoreLogic. The flood has also interrupted commerce along the Mississippi River. Flooding along the Mississippi was caused by large snowfalls in the upper Midwest this winter and a lot of precipitation in April, where up to four times the normal amount of rain fell in some parts of the region.

It is well known that isolated extreme weather events do not prove the existence of climate change. However, the floods and tornadoes we are seeing in the US are statistically anomalous and can be understood as evidence supporting global warming. Increases in snow and rain caused the flooding and increased precipitation is tied to climate change. Meteorologists are saying that increasing ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are spawning the tornadoes. (When warmer water in the Gulf evaporates and meets with colder air from the north you have a combination that spawns strong winds, violent precipitation and tornadoes).

The central plains states like Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri can expect more tornadoes. However, the extreme weather is not limited to tornado alley; a lesser risk is also present in the Midwest all the way through the Ohio Valley to the East Coast. Storms are expected over much of the US from the Northeast all the way down to Mexico.

As reported in the Insurance Journal, “The spring of 2011’s tornadoes have been some of the costliest, and deadliest, in US history,” said Dr. Robert Hartwig, an economist and president of the I.I.I. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service, the US averages 1,200 tornadoes a year, but as of May 17, 2011 we had already seen 1,076, with 875 of them occurring in April. The 70 tornadoes that were reported in seven Midwest states over the weekend of May 21-22, and the tornadoes on May 24 should push us over 1,200 with over 7 months remaining in 2011.

Tornados can be deadly and 2011 is on track to be the deadliest year ever for tornado-related deaths in the US with about 482 fatalities so far. It is obvious that floods and tornadoes have dire consequences for human life and the economy. In addition to the human toll, thousands of commercial buildings, homes and apartment complexes have been destroyed by floods and tornadoes.

The tornado that devastated Joplin, Mo. killed at least 117 people (1500 people are still missing). According to an estimate from catastrophe risk modeling firm Eqecat Inc., the Joplin tornado caused up to $3 billion in insured losses. Joplin is a city with an estimated 25,000 buildings out of which 2,500 buildings were destroyed and approximately 10,000 were damaged.

In April, three severe storms ripped through the Southern states, the most serious storm featured 178 tornadoes and killed at least 300 people, many of them in Alabama. According to risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, the southern state tornadoes that touched down between April 22 and 28, caused up to $5.5 billion in insured losses. Risk Management Solutions, another risk modeling company, estimated the total insured loss figure could climb as high as $6 billion.

The Insurance Journal indicates that tornadoes have caused $97.8 billion in insured losses in the US between 1990 and 2009, making these weather events second only to hurricanes ($152.4 billion) over this same time period as the costliest natural disasters. In the past three years (2008-2010), severe thunderstorms, and the tornadoes they spawned, have caused about one third ($30 billion) of that $97.8 billion total.

On Tuesday May 24th, a house committee approved an additional $1 billion to help federal emergency crews respond to the devastation from natural disasters across the South and Midwest. However, Rep. Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., chairman of the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee told Fox News that he wants to pay for the FEMA infusion by pulling $4 billion from the Department of Energy loan program to facilitate green technology.

Aderholt’s logic is fundamentally flawed, he completely ignores the fact that there is a great deal we can do to preempt some of the worst weather related catastrophes. Rather than just pay for disaster relief we can invest in green technology and minimize the extreme weather caused by climate change.

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