Cold and Snow Steal Headlines but we are Still Warming

While it may seem as though the US is enduring a record cold winter it is actually quite warm. We have witnessed record breaking snowfalls and parts of the North East are indeed colder than usual. The US is still in the grips of global warming and record snowfalls are consistent with climate change particularly in the Northeast.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, the period from December 2014 to January 2015 is the sixth hottest ever recorded for the contiguous US. Globally the month of January was the second hottest on record.

In California temperatures have been more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Across the country record high temperatures have been equaled or broken three and a half thousand times in January. There have been even more record breaking high temperatures in the month of February.

USA Today quotes the NRDC as saying there have been 4,074 record high temperatures logged in the US in the first half of February alone.

Cold temperatures are entirely consistent with climate change. Increasing levels of atmospheric carbon are changing the balance of naturally occurring weather systems. This can lead to periods of extreme cold weather.

However, periods of cold weather in some parts of the US does not alter the overall warming trend. Both nationally and globally temperatures are increasing. The key is to appreciate the difference between weather and climate. Overall temperatures continue to rise and we are experiencing far more record heat waves than cold.

There is a clear trend that is emerging over time. Last year 2014 is the hottest to date and nine of the 10 hottest years on record have come since 2000.

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Record Snowfalls in the Northeast are Consistent with Climate Change

The record snowfalls in the Northeastern and Midwestern portions of North America are consistent with climate change models.

In Late January and early February record snowstorms rolled across the Plains to the Northeast. These storms have killed at least a dozen people and forced the cancellation of classes, grounded thousands of flights and left many roads impassible. The Boston area is one of the worst hit areas with record setting snowfalls for a seven day period. Boston has had more snow in the last week than they get in an average year (the annual average is 47 inches). New York Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island and northern Connecticut also were hit by massive snowfalls.

Boston is not the only city that is being inundated by snow. Chicago saw more snowfall in one day (almost 20 inches) early in February than they did for the entire month of January.

Snowstorms have also ravaged parts of Canada's east coast. The City of Saint John, N.B., declared a state of emergency on Tuesday February 3 after three consecutive storms lashed the city. While Saint John is used to big snowfalls, this was the first time in almost three decades that the city was forced to declare a state of emergency. The latest storm alone dumped 50 inches of snow, the average for this time of year is around 6 inches. Another storm is expected to bring up to 10 more inches of snow.

Record snowfalls were also recorded in Buffalo last November. "The Buffalo blizzard of November 2014 is fully consistent with our understanding of human-induced climate change," said Michael Wehner, a senior staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley.

As explained by Michael Mann, professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, the storm in Buffalo was caused by, "cold winds traveling over the warm moisture-laden lake created a perfect storm of conditions for record lake-effect snow."

This weather pattern also applies to the east coast. However, rather than a lake effect the engine for east coast storms is the contrast between warmer ocean temperatures and colder areas over land. This causes more water to evaporate into the atmosphere and fall as snow.  The ocean along the east coast is currently averaging more than 2°F warmer than normal.

Scientists who study climate anticipate more record breaking snowfalls will increase as the world continues to warm, particularly in the Northeast. 

"The models all agree there will be more precipitation in the northern United States as global temperatures continue to increase," Wehner said.

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Snowstorms are Consistent with Climate Change

Another storm influenced by climate change has struck the US east coast and while Juno was not as bad as predicted in places like NYC in wreaked havoc across New England. Boston had 23 inches of snow and 78 mph winds caused widespread power outages in Nantucket, Cape Cod and other coastal communities. In Newport Rhode Island, the tall ship Providence was knocked over by heavy winds. The National Guard had to rescue people inundated by flooding in the community of Scituate and snowfall records were broken in places like Worcester north of Boston.

Warmer ocean temperatures are driving storms like Juno and the research evidence indicates that climate change is expected to make snowstorms and deluges both more frequent and more severe. There is a clear trend towards more intense precipitation in the US and this is particularly pronounced along the northern portions of the US east coast. A review of the literature in the U.S. Climate Impacts Report concluded, "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent."

Currently sea temperatures are 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal along the east coast, the result is more water vapor in the atmosphere which causes more storms.

Milder winters will actually produce more snowstorms because warmer air hold more moisture while cold air does not contain as much vapor. For every 1 degree temperature increase the air can hold 4 percent more moisture.

In addition to increased vapor, climate change is also altering the jet stream which can cause a storm to slow down or even remain fixed giving it more time to dump snow and increase accumulations.

Juno is not the first major snowstorm and it certainly will not be the last. As temperatures continue to rise both on land and at sea we can expect far more and far bigger snowstorms in the future.

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Record Breaking Buffalo Snow Storm Consistent with Global Warming

The massive snow storm that shattered records and dumped more than seven feet of snow on Buffalo is consistent with what we can expect from a world ravaged by climate change. Far from being evidence to disprove global warming it actually supports the predictions of climate change models.

Not only did thirteen people die as a consequence of the storm, there were major cleanup costs, significant damage and thousands of hours of lost productivity. As of Sunday morning, more than 84,000 tons of snow had been removed from portions of South Buffalo and Kaisertown. At least 30 roofs are known to have collapsed from the weight of the accumulated snowfall. Economic costs related to the storm are expected to exceed $3.2 million for Erie County and $27 million for the state.

The melting of the snow, due to rapid temperature increases (another corollary of climate change), is having a destructive impact. This is but the latest in a spate of extreme weather in New York. The the past four years the state has had to deal with 11 major weather events.

As explained by Michael Mann, professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, the storm was caused by, "cold winds traveling over the warm moisture-laden lake created a perfect storm of conditions for record lake-effect snow."

At least one study shows how lake-effect snowstorms increase with global warming. Warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate into the atmosphere, and warmer air holds more water than cooler air. This effect was demonstrated in a study published in 2006. The conclusion of this research was that warmer years produce bigger snow storms.

Paradoxically through what is known as the polar vortex, warmer global temperatures can increase the likelihood of frigid Arctic air to flow further south than is normal. Even though 2014 is on track to be the hottest year on record, we saw a blast of unseasonably cold temperatures in November.

Climatologists have indicated that extreme cold can be caused by stratospheric warming. In fact temperature fluctuations and cold snaps are consistent with global warming.

"If Jennifer Francis, Stefan Rahmstorf and others who have published work suggesting that the increased tendency for anomalously persistent meanders in the jet stream might be a consequence ofhuman-caused climate change are right, then climate change may have indeed played a hand in this event," Mann said.

So contrary to the ignorance of climate deniers, the snow storm in New York state is entirely consistent with predictions of a warming world.

"The Buffalo blizzard of November 2014 is fully consistent with our understanding of human-induced climate change," said Michael Wehner, a senior staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley.

Scientists who study climate anticipate more record breaking snowfalls will increase as the world continues to warm.

"If you look at model projections of climate change for the next few decades under business as usual carbon emissions, what they show is that you'll still have 'winter' over regions like the United States — that is, there will still be a wide seasonal window where it is cold enough for snow,'' Mann said. "But because winters will be warmer, the atmosphere will have the ability to hold more water vapor, and so there is more of that water vapor available for precipitation. Again, as long as it's cold enough for that precipitation to be snow, which it will be, you'll actually get larger snowfalls.''

"The models all agree there will be more precipitation in the northern United States as global temperatures continue to increase," Wehner said.

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Video - Senator Markey Calls out Republican Climate Deniers for their Fossil Fuel Advocacy and their Obstructionism on Climate Change

The Democratic Senator for Massachusetts Ed Markey laments the collapse of the Shaheen-Portman energy efficiency bill. Had Republicans not opposed it, it would have cut carbon pollution and created jobs. He explains that the bill collapsed because Republicans tied the vote on Shaheen-Portman to three measures designed to support the fossil fuel industry:

1. Stop EPA rights to cut emissions form power plants
2. Increase exports of natural gas which will increase costs and therefore the use of coal
3. Prevent the Senate from considering global warming pollution controls

Antarctic Sea Ice

Markey referenced the studies which point to the unstoppable melting of the Antarctic sea ice and rising seas. This means cities like Boston, south Florida and New Orleans will be underwater. The world's ice is melting and Republicans are the cause. Markey suggests that the next piece of ice that breaks off of a glacier should be reserved as an island for climate deniers.

Production Tax Credit for the Wind Industry

He goes on to say that despite strong growth in the US wind industry, last year the sector lost 30,000 jobs because Republicans opposed the production tax credit (PTC). As explained by Markey if the oil and gas industry receive 7 billions of tax breaks per year than renewable technologies should as well.

He concluded his remarks by saying, "We need to be sure we are protecting generations to come"

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Video - Former Mexican President Blames Republicans for their resistance to Combating Climate Change

According to former President of Mexico Felipe Calderón, the GOP is a major impediment in the fight against climate change. Speaking at the Harvard Business school in April, Calderón said that Republicans in Congress are like Chinese coal plants in that they are both adversaries in the fight against climate change. He called Republicans, "The most serious problem is in the United States Congress." "If you are a Republican, it's like a formal requirement to be a nonbeliever in climate change. And that's bad," Calderón said.

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Video - How Global Warming Can Exacerbate Cold Snaps (Jetstream and Rossby Waves)

Cold spells are often used as fodder for climate Denial. However, the science behind them is entirely consistent with a warming planet. In this video Climate scientist Jennifer A. Francis of Rutgers University reviews how the jetstream and Rossby waves work. The key factor is a feedback mechanism of climate change known as Arctic amplification. As ice and snow vanish in the Arctic this causes warming slowing down wind speeds in the atmosphere and creating wavier jet stream patterns which pushes cold air further south.

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The US House of Representatives Anti-Environment Voting Record in 2013

A new report from Henry Waxman (D-CA), shows that the Republican controlled House of Representatives voted for anti-environment positions 109 times. The 113th Congress is almost as bad as the 112th Congress which was called "the most anti-environment House of Representatives in history" by Waxman and Ed Markey (D-MA).

The Waxman report shows that House members:

• Voted 51 times to to protect the interests of the oil and gas industry at the expense of the environment and human health
• Voted 20 times to weaken the Clean Air Act
• Voted 20 times to block or hinder federal carbon emissions regulations
• Voted 27 times to cut clean energy and energy efficiency funding and block clean energy policies,
• Voted 37 times to weaken the Clean Water Act and other regulatory efforts to improve water quality

The woeful voting record in the House should come as not surprise when you consider just how much money is being funneled to members of Congress from the fossil fuel industry. As reported by Think Progress, 160 representatives from the 113th Congress accepted more than $55.5 million from the fossil fuel industry, and 56 percent of the Republican caucus in 2013′s House of Representatives deny the reality of climate change.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Extreme Cold in North America is due to Stratospheric Warming

The extreme cold temperatures that are being recorded across much of North America are attributable to stratospheric warming which is pushing the polar vortex southward. While the Climate skeptics, love to use cold weather to question the veracity of global warming, it should come as no surprise that they are confused.

Just as one extreme weather event does not prove global warming, a cold snap does not disprove it. Further, there is evidence that this extreme cold may actually be a corollary of climate change.

Despite the cold snap, there is a clear global warming trend. There is also an unmistakable trajectory of warmer winters in North America over the last century which has gotten worse over the last couple of decades.

While the evidence of warming lends credence to the scientific consensus on climate change, occasional cold spells may also support global warming.

The polar vortex is bringing the extreme cold weather to much of North America. A polar vortex is a whirlwind of extremely cold, extremely dense air that forms near the poles. Slower wind speeds can cause this cold air to spill southward which may have been triggered by a sudden stratospheric warming event.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Republicans Have Painted Themselves Into a Corner on Climate Change

The Republican position on climate change may drive party support to historic lows in the not too distant future. While most Americans (including supporters of the GOP) think that climate change is real and want the government to act, the majority of Republicans in Congress are science eschewing climate deniers. According to an analysis by the Center for American Progress, 58 percent of Republicans in the current Congress deny the existence of climate change or oppose action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Congressman Joe Barton of Texas and Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma are poster boys for the flat earth/Luddites in Congress. They regularly dismiss climate change as a “hoax.” However a new analysis from a Stanford University Social Psychologists makes this position politically untenable. Americans, including Republicans think global warming is real and want the government to act.

“This new report is crystal clear,” said Waxman. “It shows that the vast majority of Americans – whether from red states or blue – understand that climate change is a growing danger. Americans recognize that we have a moral obligation to protect the environment and an economic opportunity to develop the clean energy technologies of the future. Americans are way ahead of Congress in listening to the scientists.”

While Democrats are known for their acknowledgement of a science based understanding of climate change Republicans have forcefully defined themselves as "skeptics." What is most striking about the research is the fact that members of the GOP in Congress are at odds with party supporters. 

According to the Stanford study, it is people's personal experience with extreme weather like heatwaves that is driving them to acknowledge the existence of man-made global warming and support government action to combat it. The GOP's recent hearings on global warming were little more than a climate denial sham, which suggests that many Republicans in the House have yet to feel the heat.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.


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House GOP's Climate Denial Circus of Lies

The Republicans in the House of Representatives staged a climate denial circus on Wednesday December 11. Their so-called “factual” hearing about climate change, invoked the testimony of skeptics concluded that half of scientists think that global warming is a hoax. The actual number in more like 97 percent. They also tried to dismiss any connection between climate change and extreme weather. The Subcommittee on Environment hearing was ironically titled “A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather.”

Much of the lies and misrepresentation came from John Christy, a climate denying professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. While the only scientifically factual part of the hearing came from Pennsylvania State University’s Dr. David Titley.

The Lies

As published in the Raw Story, Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) asked Professor Christy, if it was really true that “97 percent of climate scientist think that climate change is real.”

“No, not at all,” Christie replied. “The American Meteorological Society, by the way, did do a survey of its professional members and found only 52 percent said that climate change of the past 50 years was due mostly to human kind. So, 52 percent amount is quite small, I think, in terms of confidence.”

“You think the 52 percent is much more credible than the 97 percent?” Smith pressed.

“Oh, yes,” Christie insisted. “It included over a thousand respondents.”

“Fifty-two percent, I don’t think by anybody’s definition, is a consensus, by the way,” Smith noted. “So I would so say that there’s not necessarily a consensus.”

The Truth

Later in the hearing, Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA) asked professor Titley, if he agreed with the witnesses who claimed there was no link between climate change and weather.

“You know, I was almost going to start nodding my head up and down with the other witnesses until I heard that there was no linkage,” Titley said. “I think the scientific consensus is not that there is no linkage, the scientific consensus is ‘we don’t know.’ What we do know, we have a warmer and more moister world.”

“Can you comment on the claim that there have been no increase in extreme weather events?” Takano wondered.

“Just take the basic data, we have had for the last 36 years, since President Ford was in office, above normal temperatures,” Titley observed. “That’s away from the center and they’re getting further and further away. Now if you take each year as kind of its own thing and imagine flipping a coin 36 times and getting heads. I mean, if that’s a fair coin, I want to go to Vegas with you.”

“The odds of that are about 1 in 68 billion,” he added. “To put it another way, there’s a 400 times greater chance that you’re going to win the Powerball [lottery] — which is $400 million, by the way, this week — than getting 36 coins to flip heads in a row.”

“So, I would say that is extreme. And the ice in the Arctic, that’s extreme. We’ve seen geologic changes in less than 10 years.”

A survey published earlier this year the journal Environmental Research Letters looked and the work of 29,000 climate scientists published in nearly 12,000 academic papers and found that 97.1% agreed that human activity was causing climate change.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

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Temperature Fluctuations and Cold Spells are Consistent with Climate Change

What are the implications of cold snaps and wild swings in temperature for the veracity of climate change? Everyone who follows climate science knows that the planet is warming, but many are unaware of how temperature fluctuations may also be a part of the climate change picture. Scientific observations provide an overwhelmingly compelling body of evidence for global warming. Many lines of scientific evidence show that as a consequence of global warming, the Earth’s climate is changing, however, increasing global mean temperature is only one element of observed climate change phenomena.

Evidence of global warming can be seen in a number of scientific observations including melting ice and sea level rises. Anomalies like increased precipitation and extreme weather events support the data generated by climate models. However, radical temperature fluctuations are another dimension of climate change that is often overlooked.

Both Dallas and Colorado recently experienced some of the most extreme temperature fluctuations on record. After enjoying balmy temperatures, Dallas was hit with a powerful cold front that caused temperatures to plummet below freezing. On Wednesday December 4, the observed high was 80 degrees, on Saturday December 7, the temperature plunged to just over 30 degrees. That is a temperature change of 50 degrees. Similarly, Denver went from being 67 degrees on Monday to 14 degrees on Wednesday. This represents a temperature difference of 53 degrees.

During the first week of December, 33 million Americans in 27 states were hit by a cold spell. Deniers have commonly looked at cold weather as evidence that disproves global warming. However, when examined over much longer time spans we see a clear warming trend. Further, high and low temperature data from recent decades show that new record highs occur nearly twice as often as new record lows.

Of course, individual temperature readings over the course of a few days cannot be taken as evidence for or against climate change. However, the anomalous temperature fluctuations are part of a trend that is consistent with what many scientists predict will occur as the planet warms.

As H.J. Weaver and his colleagues at the Australian National University explained, “Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and well being, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure.”

A NOAA report (PDF) on the 2009/2010 Cold Season stated that a changing climate produced “Extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes in 2009 and 2010.”

The winters of 2010 and 2011 in the northern hemisphere have resulted in the record-setting freezes and warm spells. According to an analysis of the past 63 winters from the American Geophysical Union, the warm extremes were more widespread and severe than the cold extremes in the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Natural variability may explain the cold temperatures, but researchers concluded the extreme warmth cannot be explained by natural cycles, suggesting a possible role of climate change. The report’s co-author Alexander Gershunov and Scripps climate researchers indicated that these temperature swings are consistent with global warming trends.

In Nowata Oklahoma, in the winter of 2011,  the temperature went from a low of -31 degrees on February 10 (the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma) to a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise is the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.

A 2011 report out of the UK examined the possible infrastructure impacts of climate change and indicated that extreme temperature fluctuations are likely.

A July 2013 study on plant physiology and climate change talked about “expected extreme fluctuations in temperature and global warming in general.”

It is important to understand as we approach irreversible tipping points that the impacts of climate change may at times appear to be counterintuitive. Far from disproving global warming, radical fluctuations in temperature are another dimension of the same problem.

Source: Global Warming is Real

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