Feeling the Heat: A New Study Pinpoints When and Where

While it is widely known that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, a new study pinpoints the years and locations that we can expect unprecedented heat to become the new normal. The study suggests where and when we can expect to see significant increases in the mean temperature. Within ten years cities like Kingston, Jamaica, are expected to break average heat records as a new norm kicks in. In about 15 years the hotter norm will settle into places like Singapore, followed by Mexico City, Cairo, Phoenix and Honolulu. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be suffering from unprecedented heat. By 2047 the heat will be inescapable as the whole world will be suffering.

Camilo Mora and colleagues in the College of Social Sciences’ Department of Geography at the University of Hawaii, Manoa revealed their findings in a study, entitled “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability,” which was published in the October 10 issue of Nature. The researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to produce their results.

Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field described the research as, "A kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back." "This is really dramatic."Field said.

Even if we manage to reduce our emissions Mora suggests that we would only delay the onset of the worst impacts until 2069. Despite these troubling findings, Mora and his colleagues are not fatalistic and they hope their research can help governments to see the wisdom of doing something before it is too late. "Now is the time to act," said study co-author, Ryan Longman.

The impacts of global warming are already being felt in ocean acidification which has show consistent increases since 2008 and this will decimate coral reefs and the diversity of marine life which depends upon them. In the tropics there will be massive impacts on biodiversity.

While some have suggested that Mora may be presenting an overly optimistic portrayal of time frames, one thing is certain, once we pass these thresholds there will be no turning back.

© 2013, Richard Matthews. All rights reserved.

Related Articles
Infographic - Timeline for Cities to be Impacted by Climate Change  
Video - Graphic Illustrations of Warming in North America
Climate Change Science
AGU: Human-induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action
Scientific Support for Anthropogenic Global Warming from Fossil Fuels
Relationship Between Warming Over Land and in the Sea
Video - Documentary on the Evidence and the Impacts of Climate Change
Video - Climate 2013: Perspectives of 8 Climate Scientists (Video)
Comprehensive Review of the Science on Anthropogenic Climate Change
Video - A Brief History of Anthropogenic Climate Change Science
Key Findings of the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5)
PricewaterhouseCoopers Climate Change Warning
International Renewable Energy Institute Climate Warning
World Bank Climate Change Warning
World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning
World Bank Climate Change Warning
UNEP Warning: We are on The Brink of a Climate Catastrophe
World Bank Report Warns of A 4°C World
10 Charts on Climate Change
September 2012 was the Warmest in Recorded History (NOAA)
Strong Body of Evidence for a Changing Climate
American Meteorological Society Corroborates Anthropogenic Climate Change
More Scientific Support for Anthropogenic Climate Change
Science and Pernicious Ignorance of Climate Change Denial
2012 is but the Latest Year Marked by Heat and Drought
Heat in the US Northeast and Drought Around the World in 2012
Temperature Data: 1880 - 2011 (Video)
New NASA Video Graphically Illustrates that the Earth is Warming
Debunking CO2 Myths and The Science of Climate Change
Primer on CO2 and other GHGs
Bill McKibben: Global Warming's Terrifying New Math
The Effects of Global Warming

SHARE

Melili

• 
• 
• 
• 
•