Feedback Loop Between Extreme Weather and Fossil Fuels Makes the Case for Clean Energy

As clean energy continues to grow storms continue to highlight the dangers of oil and gas. Fossil fuels and storms are locked in a perilous relationship that sees each contribute to the destructive force of the other. Extreme weather events have repeatedly ravaged Texas oil infrastructure.

Storms wreak havoc with both the economy and the environment. Preliminary estimates put the economic cost of Hurricane Harvey at $190 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in US history. There are also costs in the fossil fuel sector associated with Hurricane Harvey passing right through the hub of the US petroleum and natural gas industries in southeast Texas.

Oil companies including Royal Dutch Shell, Anadarko Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil shut down operations and evacuated employees from their offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil refineries also shut down leaving a million barrel shortfall. Crude oil prices have been steadily climbing with many fearing it could top $50 a barrel.

The disruption the fossil fuel industry in Texas significantly impacts domestic energy markets and creates a ripple effect on the national economy. As of September 01, 2017 the national average for regular was $2.54 a gallon, an increase of 18 cents in the last week. During this time prices jumped at least 10 cents a gallon in 24 hours in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and the Mid-Atlantic states. As of September 4th national average gas prices were $2.67 but some are predicting prices as high as $2.75 a gallon in the coming days. Some Dallas area gas stations were charging almost $4.00 a gallon. Many Dallas gas stations have run out of gas presaging long lines and shortages all the way up the east coast.

This is the fourth time in less than a decade that there has been massive storm related energy infrastructure disruptions in Texas. Climate change models predict that the intensity of storms will continue to increase and this will increase both economic and environmental impacts. As if to prove the point one of the strongest Hurricanes ever is currently lashing the Caribbean and barrelling towards the US mainland.

Before the dust settled from Hurricane Harvey another even stronger storm has formed in the Caribbean. It has been named Hurricane Irma and it is poised to hit the US mainland in the coming days. Hurricane Irma has been referred to as "potentially catastrophic" by CNN. It has maximum sustained wind speeds of 180 mph. That is well above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 hurricane. These intense storms reveal the destructive synergistic nexus between fossil fuels and climate.

The burning of fossil fuels emit greenhouse gases that trap heat and increase water vapor in the atmosphere. This in turn fuels extreme weather events that disrupt fossil fuel production, refinement and transportation. In addition to increasing fuel prices, these storms destroy fossil fuel infrastructure sometimes resulting in spills that contaminate the environment. This is especially true of Texas which is home to a dense concentration of fossil fuel infrastructure.

According to the EIA approximately 33 percent of US refining capacity comes from the Texas Gulf Coast. Approximately 25 percent of US natural gas production and 50 percent of US oil production originates in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. The latter accounts for almost 20 percent of US crude oil production.

Harvey is hardly the first storm to disrupt the fossil fuel industry. The last three hurricanes to hit the US Gulf Coast (Gustav and Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012) all affected oil and natural gas infrastructure. According to the EIA these three storms all shut in more than one million barrels per day of crude oil production and more than three billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. The storms also shut down significant pipeline and refining capacity. This will have both a national and a global affect. Residents of Canada are already feeling the affects of the storm at the pump.

Distributed energy makes sense in the context of climate change and increasingly intense extreme weather. Highly concentrated oil infrastructure is vulnerable to economic disruption and threatens national security. Flexible clean alternatives including onsite solar and wind facilities offer a more nimble approach to secure energy generation.

Clean energy sites are also subject to interruptions from extreme weather but these are minor compared to fossil fuels. Like the fossil fuel industry the burgeoning wind industry in Texas went off line in advance of Harvey but this did not impact access to electricity in Texas. Unlike renewables the production, refining and transportation of fossil fuels are all especially vulnerable to Hurricanes. The environmental, economic, energy and health impacts of a storm are far worse for fossil fuels than they are for renewables.

Fossil fuels still rely on an out-dated centralized model. The growth of both renewables and energy storage have pushed the US electricity grid towards a more diverse and distributed model. It would appear that the Energy Department shares the view that reforms are required.

At the same time that Harvey was making landfall in the US the Energy Department released its review of national grid resiliency. Despite the study's support for nuclear power and coal (it suggests the EPA should ease permitting requirements for new coal fired plants) the study also seems to indicate that there is value in integrating more renewables into the grid.

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Mother Nature Strikes Back: A Review of Extreme Weather in 2016

Extreme weather is a deadly corollary of climate change. A UN study found that between 1995 and 2015, 600,000 people died from natural disasters. Global warming is known to exacerbate the intensity of extreme weather events. We are already seeing clear evidence of climate change playing a role in a growing number of natural disasters. Thanks to advances in attribution science we can now see the role that climate change plays in driving a succession of increasingly severe extreme weather events.

According to a report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, floods accounted for 30 percent of the world's top ten natural disasters in 2015. In 2015, three of the world's top 10 natural disasters by the number of fatalities were floods. In first place was heat waves, accounting for four of the top 10.

The warming trend and associated extreme weather events continued in 2016, which has replaced 2015 as the hottest year on record. Decades of hot data are the harbingers of a climate catastrophe. As published in Insurance Journal, here is a list of some of the extreme weather events we experienced in 2016

• Flooding in China’s Yangtze Basin from May through August killed at least 475 people and caused $28 billion in losses.
• A drought in India that started earlier in the year and stretched through June caused about $5 billion in damage.
• Flooding in West Virginia and the mid-Atlantic in June killed 23 people and damaged more than 5,500 buildings.
• Typhoon Nepartak hit the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July, killing 111 people and causing at least $1.5 billion in damage.
• Flooding in northeast China in July killed 289 people and caused about $5 billion in damage.
• Temperatures reached 129 degrees (54 degrees Celsius) in Kuwait and Iraq in July.
• Flooding in Louisiana in August killed 13 people and caused around $15 billion in damage.
• Flooding in Sudan and South Sudan in July and August killed 129 people and damaged more than 41,000 buildings.
• A long heat wave coupled with high humidity afflicted the U.S. South and East. Savannah, Georgia, had 69 straight days when the temperature hit 90 or higher.
• Typhoon Lionrock hit Japan, China and Korea in August and killed 77 people while damaging more than 20,000 buildings.
• Spain set a record for the hottest September temperature recorded in Europe, with marks of 114 and 115 degrees.
• Localities in the United States broke nearly 15,000 daily records for hot nighttime minimum temperatures from May into September.

Hurricane Matthew wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Although not as severe the effects of the Hurricane were felt in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. What makes this hurricane noteworthy is that advances in attribution science are making it easier to see the role played by climate change.  The relationship between extreme weather and climate change was explored in a recent Scientific American article.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing about extreme weather in the US is the GOP's refusal to accept reality. Republicans ignored unprecedented heat and record breaking precipitation while boldly revealing policy platforms that will exacerbate the situation. The GOP's love of fossil fuels and disdain for climate action is equaled only by their hatred for science.

In the span of six months two once in 500 year storms have devastated Louisiana. Similar catastrophic flooding has gripped many pats of the world in 2016 including China, India, Macedonia, Pakistan and Sudan.

As reported by Damian Carrington in a Washington Post article, this warming trend has dire implications for extreme weather which costs lives, destroys crops and contributes to food insecurity.

"The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue...Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen...Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular," Carrington said.

The WMO said human-induced global warming had contributed to at least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.

"It is almost as if mother nature is making a statement," said climate scientist Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2016 extreme weather and climate events have adversely affected agriculture impacting the food security of more than 60 million people.

"Climate change is not like other issues that can be postponed from one year to the next,” he said. “The US and world are already behind; speed is of the essence because climate change and its impacts are coming sooner and with greater ferocity than anticipated."

The situation is dire as indicated by new research published at the end of 2016. The findings are from a Stanford University doctoral dissertation by Carolyn Snyder, a climate policy official at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As reported in Nature the research suggests the Earth is currently warmer than it has been in 100,000 years. The conclusion of the Snyder study suggests that current levels of fossil fuel use indicate the Earth is 'locked into' temperatures not Seen in 2 million years. The research suggests that we may see temperature rises of up to 9° Celsius.

As reported in an accompanying Nature article: "Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia." If Trump delivers on his promise to extract and burn even more fossil fuels the situation could be even worse that predicted by the research.

"The kinds of extreme weather we have seen over the past year or so will be routine all too soon, but then even worse records will be set," Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s leading climatologists, told Think Progress' Joe Romm.

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The Eye of the Storm: Hurricane Matthew, Attribution Science and Climate Change (Video)

It is widely accepted that warmer seas contribute to hurricanes but there are also a number of other factors that contribute to extreme weather events. Here is a review of the evidence linking climate change and Hurricane Matthew.

Matthew has already wreaked havoc in Cuba and the Bahamas and it has killed almost one thousand people in Haiti. Four Americans are known to have died due to the storm. There are currently states of emergency in effect in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Although Matthew has been downgraded from a level 5 to a level 1 hurricane it still packs a punch.  It looks as though central Florida was spared the worst, but cities along the East Coast are bracing for the storm.

Florida is no stranger to hurricanes. In 2004, four major hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) caused billions of dollars in damage in the state. These storms were followed by Hurricane Katrina a year later.

The cause of these extreme weather events was the subject of cautious reflection in the scientific community.

While we know that climate models predict more intense extreme weather events scientist are very careful about attributing any one storm to climate change. That is not to say there is no link, it merely reflects the cautious approach taken by scientists.

Until very recently there was inadequate data to make a conclusive pronouncement. We now have more reliable satellite systems, which allow better tracking.

Scientists are reluctant to assign any given weather event to climate change. Initially, hurricane Sandy was dismissed as being unrelated to climate change. However, scientists subsequently confirmed that climate change did play a role in Sandy.

The science connecting hurricanes and climate change has improved. Some scientific observations are obvious. One such recent observation corroborating the worsening hurricane trend came from the East Pacific basin which saw Hurricane Patricia generate the highest wind speeds ever recorded on Earth.

Here is a summary of what we know about the climate change/hurricane connection: Warmer oceans spawn more storms and more storms will increase rainfall and water vapor. These phenomena can fuel more intense hurricanes.

The Washington Post delved into the question of the science linking Hurricane Matthew to climate change. They quoted a recent scientific overview on the links between hurricanes and climate.-climate:

“While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in [tropical cyclone] numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins.”

The situation in the Atlantic is complex. To understand the relationship between climate change and hurricanes in the Atlantic we must factor natural cycles (such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). We must even evaluate the impact of reductions in atmospheric aerosols that occurred following tighter regulations on these emissions.

Even when we factor these phenomena it is still very hard to attribute an individual storm to a changing climate.

Still, there are reasons to believe that although other factors are involved, Matthew has been exacerbated by climate change.

Kevin Trenberth, a researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told the Washington Post there seems to be a combination of the overall warming trend and natural variability, such as the El Nino-La Nina cycle, behind what we’re seeing: "The overall increase in moisture is about 5 to 6% from climate change, and in a hurricane that gets doubled because the storm intensifies and increases the convergence of moisture. But in the Atlantic, in the year following El Nino, the [sea surface temperature] tends to be higher in the subtropics (because with El Nino the winds are lighter and more sunny skies), and indeed in the subtropics east of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, [sea surface temperatures] have been running 2 deg C (3 to 4F) above normal, and moisture 10 to perhaps 15% above normal. Indeed this was the region that fed the Louisiana floods (not so much the Gulf). So the potential has been there: a natural variability component on top of the global warming to produce a very strong storm."

Matthew had a very rapid rate of escalation to a category 5 and it is also very persistent. These statistically anomalous observations are consistent with climate change but no clear causal link can be drawn. While observations should not be confused with proof they are nonetheless consistent with scientific predictions.

As the world warms, sea levels are rising and this will worsen the impacts of storms. Even small increases in sea level can have a big impact on storm surges.

Climate change has influenced the strength and endurance of Matthew.  While the evidence may not be sufficiently rigorous for a climatologist, those who extrapolate and draw conclusions from existing evidence may prove to be more accurate than the understandably cautious claims of scientists.

It is important to note that the data in no way disproves the connection between Matthew and a changing climate. However, scientists require an abundance of evidence before they will say anything with any degree of confidence.

In a Think Progress article, the venerable  Joe Romm pulls no punches in connecting this hurricane and climate change. "Matthew has already set a number of records — and global warming is giving it a boost," Romm asserts.

He then goes on to review some of Matthew's record-breaking feats and squarely attributes them to climate change:

• longest-lived Category 4 (or higher) Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. 
• most accumulated cyclone energy of any Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Caribbean

He then cites several papers that support a close relationship between hurricanes and climate change. One showing a 20 - 30 percent increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes in recent years. A few other studies show an increase in hurricane intensity including in the North Atlantic.

These observations are corroborated by a host of other findings including the fact that the summer of 2016 was the hottest summer in recorded history and possibly the hottest in "thousands of years."

The oceans are warmer and we are also seeing a sharp rise in the most damaging storm surges.

One tropical cyclone expert just warned, "Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could double or triple in the coming decades."

Romm comes to the logical conclusion that in the face of the evidence, "We simply cannot cut carbon pollution fast enough."


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Video - Drought in California: No Rain in San Francisco

Drought is making life difficult in areas all over the world and one of the worst hit areas is California. As a sign California's persistent drought, downtown San Francisco recorded no measurable rain in January 2015, this is the first time this has happened in at least 165 years. The National Weather Service also said Santa Cruz recorded no rain in January for the first time since 1893. Normal rainfall for that city in January is more than 6 inches. For the Bay Area as a whole, last month was the driest January on record, the weather service said.

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Climate Change Increases the Risk of Megadroughts

If we do not take the appropriate actions to stave off climate change the number of megadroughts will significantly increase.

New research has quantified the risks from climate change and provided insights into the prospects of megadroughts in the US and around the world. The  study is titled, "Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data."

The scientists from Cornell, University of Arizona and US Geological Survey came to the shocking conclusion that in places like the southwestern US, "the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is at least 80 percent, and may be higher than 90 percent in certain areas."

Extrapolating data from this study shows that there are equal or higher risks of megadroughts in the rest of the world than the estimates provided for the US Southwest. This means that in the subtropics (e.g., in the Mediterranean, western and southern Africa, Australia, and much of South America) the likelihood of megadrought is more than 90 percent.

These findings are considered to be highly conservative because they do not factor temperature increases which are known to increase drought effects. The actual likelihood of drought when temperature increases are factored into the equation may be closer to 100 percent.

This data corroborates a 2012 study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This study concluded that without significant emissions reduction most of southern Europe and about half of the United States will experience persistent extreme drought.

We are already seeing severe droughts in California, Brazil, Australia and other places around the world.  We know that entire civilizations have been ended by megadroughts. The current situation and the looming threat of megadroughts make efforts to significantly reduce emissions that much more urgent.

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Climate Change Induced Drought Threatens Brazil's Carnival

Climate change induced drought is forcing Brazil to scale back its iconic Carnival celebrations. The worst drought in over 80 years is killing crops and depriving millions of Brazilians of drinking water. The current drought began in 2005, and with no end in site it is being called a megadrought. This type of chronic water shortage has been shown to have played a pivotal role in the demise of at least 5 civilizations.

The densely populated southeastern portion of Brazil is the worst hit area of the country.  The drought is so bad that more than a dozen cities and towns in the state of Minas Gerais have called off or scaled back their Carnival celebrations. Ouro Preto is a city in the state of Minas Gerais, has been forced to rotate outages to ensure ample water for the 70,000 tourists who descend on Ouro Preto for Carnival.

Water levels are alarmingly low in Brazil’s largest city, São Paulo prompting one city official to call for the cancellation of Carnival.

In the state of São Paulo, there are days when there is no water coming out of their taps. The president of Brazil’s Water Regulatory Agency, Vicente Andreu, warns that São Paulo residents should prepare for a "collapse like we’ve never seen before."

For the first time in its history, the city of Oliveira has canceled all 2015 Carnival festivities due to very low water supplies.

According to a 2013 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of sciences this series of droughts in Brazil may be a sign that the rainforest is showing the first signs of large-scale degradation due to climate change.

"Our results suggest that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change, large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery," said NASA scientist Sassan Saatchi, lead researcher of the study.

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Infographic - Civilizations that have Succumbed to Megadrought

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Drought in California and Heat in Alaska

The beginning of this year recorded unprecedented drought and heat in the US. Record setting droughts have been ravaging California while Alaska is setting its own records for anomalous warm temperatures.

California has been experiencing a persistent drought. The Bay Area recorded its driest January on record. In the month of January the city of San Francisco recorded no measurable rain for the first time in 165 years.

Other cities in California have also suffered from an absence of rain in January. This includes the city of Santa Cruz which recorded no rain during the month for the first time since 1893 (normal rainfall for that city in January is more than 6 inches). Even in northern California the month of January was unusually dry and warm.

Alaska has seen extremely warm temperatures and an absence of snow coverage in January. There was virtually no snow for the running of the annual Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race.

Alaska has had an unusually warm winter. January was its third-warmest such month on record. Nome set an all-time monthly record high temperature on January 27 with a reading of 51 degrees Fahrenheit. The statewide average January temperature was 14.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1971-2000 average.

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