More Record Breaking Heat

Month after month, year after year, decade after decade we keep setting new temperature records. The world’s five warmest years have all occurred in the last five years and the period from 2010-2019 was the hottest decade ever recorded. We have seen 421 consecutive months of above average temperatures. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years and each successive decade was warmer than any preceding decade.

Last July was is the hottest month ever recorded and 2019 was the second hottest year on record. This was the 43rd consecutive year with above average global land and ocean temperatures. The warming trend continues into 2020. The first month of this year was the warmest January on record.

On February 6, Argentina’s Esperanza Base clocked an all time Antarctic heat record with a reading of 65 F (18.3 C). The beat the station’s previous high record of 63.5 F (17.5 C) in March 2015. Then, on February 9, a Brazilian-run research station on nearby Seymour Island logged  recorded a temperature of: 69.4 F (20.75 C).

Between the 1950s and the early 2000s, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed 5 degrees F, that is much faster than the rest of the world.  As reported in Mother Jones, the evolutionary ecologist Byron Adams of Brigham Young University says the extreme heat  puts the microscopic animals at the top of Antarctica's food chain at risk. Adams is currently surveying life on the continent including what he calls "the charismatic megafauna of continental Antarctica". Adams says there will be winners and loser in Antarctica but eventually he predicts that all will lose.  In a National Geographic article, Peter Neff, an Antarctic glaciologist at the University of Washington is quoted as saying  that he expects more of these warm events.

The adverse consequences will not be restricted to this remote continent. Melting Antarctic ice will significantly increase sea levels and cause flooding of major cities all around the world.. From 1992 to 2017, the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula nearly quintupled, from 7 to 33 billion tons a year.  Ice core data from the Antarctic reveal that recent levels of summer melting are unprecedented in the last thousand years.

"Once stitched together, these pictures of global weather conditions and atmospheric composition provide a comprehensive historical record of the Earth's climate that can be used to monitor how fast it is changing," according to C3S.  Meteorologists predict the warming trend will continue and we can expect to see more heat records broken in the comings months and years.

Climate scientists agree that human greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of this warming and the longer we wait to radically slash these emissions the worse it will get perhaps even triggering tipping points from which we will not be able to recover.

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2019 Adds More Data Points to the Constellation of Hot Data

The heat records keep adding to the mountain of data points that demonstrate that we are suffering from ever worsening global warming. This year (2019) is likely to be the second warmest year in the hottest decade on record. This year will also be remembered for the month of July which is the hottest month ever recorded. The months of June, September, October also broke records. November was the second hottest on record. Except for January of this year, each month in 2019 has been in the top three hottest on record.

We have seen 419 consecutive months of above average temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 42 years. The five warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 50 years. The most recent decade was the warmest in recorded history. Since the 1980s, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Nine of the ten warmest years have all occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years have all occurred in the past five years (NOAA's current global average yearly heat rankings: 1st: 2016, 2nd: 2015, 3rd: 2017, 4th: 2018, and 5th: 2014).

In 2019 we saw heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new normal. Europe suffered through brutal heatwaves that broke records in more than a dozen countries. According to the UN heatwaves were the deadliest weather hazard in the 2015-19 period, affecting all continents and setting new national temperature records.

Australia is enduring some of the worst heatwaves in modern history. Australia may be among the most severe but it is not the only place setting records in December. Iceland also saw its highest ever temperature readings early in December. In the U.S. temperatures in Michigan broke records with temperatures approaching 50 F. Other parts of the northern U.S. also saw extremely warm temperatures including states like Ohio and Wisconsin. Many parts of Russia are also experiencing warm weather and little or no snow.

The summer of 2019 was the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere and the period between June and August was the hottest in the 140-year climate record. September through November and January through November were each the second hottest on record.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provisional, State of the Global Climate report for 2019, the last five year period, "is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial (1850-1900) times and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015". This is important in light of the fact that the Paris Agreement warns us to keep temperatures from warming beyond the 1.5 C above pre-industrial norms. Terrestrial heat records are not our only concern. We have seen ocean heat records that may be the climate canary in the marine coalmine. We also need to appreciate the gravity of Arctic heatwaves.

The extreme heat has wide ranging impacts. It is know to be related to wildfires, drought, extreme weather, sea level rise and crop failures. As people suffer through these severe climate impacts, the actions of the federal governments in both the U.S. and Australia are woefully inadequate. The inaction of world leaders is is accelerating warming and we are running out of time to stop it.  This year is destined to be a make or break year.

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Hottest September on Record Ends the Hottest Summer on Record

In the wake of the hottest month on record (July) and the hottest summer on record, the fall season began with the hottest month of September ever recorded. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, September was not only the hottest month in the 140 years we have kept records, it was also the 417th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in 35 years. The four warmest decades on record have all occurred in the last 40 years. Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. This year is on track to be another record breaker.

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New Record Set for the Hottest Month Ever

The summer of 2019 started with the hottest month of June and that was followed by July which is now being considered the hottest month in recorded history.

This is the first time in the 140 years that we have monitored global temperatures that we have seen a global average reading of 62.13 Fahrenheit. July 2019 beat the record set in July 2016.

"Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005—with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July. (NOAA)"

Temperature records are falling at an ever accelerating pace. The trend is unmistakable. July was not only the hottest month on record it was the 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. We have not seen below average temperatures in almost 35 years.

Eight of the ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade and the five warmest years in recorded history have all occurred in the past five years. There is no sign that this trend will abate any time soon as the first half of 2019 puts us on track for another record breaking year.

Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information  

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The World Keeps Warming as We are Running Out of Time

We are seeing heatwaves break records all around the world. From India to Alaska, records are falling as record breaking heat is becoming the new norm.  After a brutal heatwave in the middle of July, Europe suffered through yet another heatwave as the month drew to a close. More than a dozen countries in Europe recently broke heat records including Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK.

Global heat records are also being broken. After the hottest month of June on record, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that last month was the hottest July on record breaking the record set in 2016. According to Copernicus, every month this year is among the four warmest on record.

As reported by CNN, Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said last week that this July has "rewritten climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at the local, national and global level...This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now, and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action. Time is running out to rein in dangerous temperature increases with multiple impacts on our planet." 

This is but the latest indication that the world is warming at an unprecedented rate. While scientists caution against attributing any single weather event to the climate crisis, attribution studies and decades of hot data make a convincing case for a changing climate. We know with certainty that this picture is consistent with climate predictions related to rising levels of atmospheric GHGs.

As Dr Freja Vamborg from Copernicus told BBC News, "that trend is not likely to stop unless we do something about curbing greenhouse gas emissions."

The steady drumbeat of heatwaves and record breaking temperatures is a call to action. Even more than the temperature records being set in the rest of the world, the extreme warming in the Arctic is cause for concern. 

"This is yet more evidence that we're heading for a much hotter world if we allow carbon emissions to continue to rise," said Dr Katherine Kramer from Christian Aid.

As reported by the BBC's Matt McGrath, "there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges". The IPCC has indicated that to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper temperature threshold limit of 1.5C we will need to see consorted global action before the end of next year if we are to succeed in slashing carbon emissions by the required amount (45% by 2030). Last year's IPCC report indicated that to reach this goal global emissions must peak by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter. We are nowhere near where we need to be to make this happen.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

The key to combating the climate crisis will be the removal of Donald Trump from power in the U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November, 2020.  The fate of the Earth demands that all nations rise up to confront the existential threats posed by a rapidly warming world.

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Arctic Heatwaves are a Final Warning

When the coldest place on Earth is regularly breaking heat records it may be time to concede that the end may indeed be nigh. The world is heating up but nowhere is this warming trend more pronounced than in the Arctic. The Arctic is getting hotter three times as fast as the rest of the world. This year (2019) was the second or third warmest Arctic spring on record. At the end of March temperatures in parts of the Arctic were 22° C above seasonal norms smashing the all time temperature record for the month. In May it hit  29° C (84° F) in Arkhangelsk, Russia which is situated near the Arctic Ocean. In Koynas, an area east of Arkhangelsk, temperature exceeded 30.6° C (87° F).

In July temperatures reached a record 69.8° F in Alert, which is situated in the Qikiqtaaluk Region, in Nunavut, Canada. Located less than less 600 miles from the North Pole, this is the northernmost permanently inhabited place in the world. Heatwaves and heat records are becoming the new Arctic norm. In recent years there have been a slew of days when the mercury has climbed above 15° C (60° F). This is way above the seasonal average of 3° C (38° F).

Armel Castellan, a meteorologist at the Canadian environment ministry told AFP that these temperatures are "completely staggering" adding that this is only one data point among many.. "It’s quite phenomenal as a statistic, it’s just one example among hundreds and hundreds of other records established by global warming," Castellan said.

There is no end in sight as Canadian government models predict that the warm weather will continue in the Arctic throughout the rest of the summer.

The Arctic is critical for a number of reasons including its impact on the world's climate. A 2018 study indicated that Arctic warming interferes with the jet stream and increases the likelihood of heatwaves. The heatwaves in the Arctic have been attributed to irregular fluctuations in the jet stream. The wandering jet stream has also been implicated in this year's heatwaves in Canada, the U.S., Europe and Asia.

It is no coincidence that these heatwaves are taking place against the backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions. At 415 parts per million this is the highest level of atmospheric carbon in at least 800,000 years.

While this is bad enough there are even more cataclysmic implications of Arctic warming. There are at least 1.5 trillion tons of carbon frozen in the permafrost of the far north, if warming continues and the ice keeps melting, these gases could be released into the atmosphere canceling out even our most ambitious mitigation efforts. This could push the climate beyond tipping points from which we may not be able to recover.

We are faced with a stark choice, drastically slash greenhouse gas emissions or continue with business as usual and destroy civilization as we know it.

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Alaska is Warming Faster than the Rest of the U.S.

Record breaking heat is plaguing Alaska. According to NOAA the winter of 2019 in Alaska was the third-warmest on record. This spring there were unseasonably warm temperatures in the frontier state. March temperatures averaged 11° Celsius (C) above normal. On March 30, the Alaskan Arctic recorded temperatures that were 22° C above normal. On March 31 a mass of high pressure in the atmosphere called an "upper-level ridge" in Alaska set records for the month with temperatures in excess of 70° Fahrenheit (F). The so called "omega block" is an area of high pressure that forces the jet-stream to flow around it. Klawock reached 71° F on March 31 and at least five other locations in Alaska set monthly high temperature records.

The summer of 2019 has been unusually hot marked by at least three heatwaves and Alaska, the northernmost point of the U.S. is no exception. Early in July, the US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, registered record high temperatures. The Independence day holiday was marked by a record breaking heatwave in Alaska.

In fact the heat in Alaska has set a number of records in 2019. "The magnitude and persistence of the warmth is particularly striking to me this winter in parts of Alaska," said Zack Labe, a climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the University of California at Irvine.

The warm weather has thinned ice and this has claimed lives. People have fallen through the thinner ice and others are prevented from using ice which is traditionally an important means of transport in the colder months. To illustrate in late March when Bering Sea ice is usually at its maximum, it had largely disappeared. As of April the ice coverage was even lower than the unprecedented low in 2018 and by mid may it was almost entirely gone when it usually persists until June.

The disappearing sea ice and melting permafrost are making life impossible in some villages including Kivalina, Newtok and Shishmaref. Climate change is wreaking havoc on subsistence hunting and fishing both in terms of using ice as a transportation medium and the changing location of fish and game.

In addition to these local impacts, declining sea ice may also have implications for global weather patterns. It is clear that open water creates warmer air temperatures and this leads to more evaporation which fuels storms.

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United States Rocked by Summer Heat

Heatwaves are increasingly common and increasingly intense and long lasting in the U.S.  June was hot in the U.S. and so was July. The month of July started with a heatwave that enveloped almost half the country and just past the middle of the same month another heatwave saw even hotter temperatures.

While the June heatwave saw temperatures exceed 90 Fahrenheit (32° Celsius) in one third of the country, the second July heatwave saw more than half of the country enduring temperatures surpassing 100° F (38° C) when the humidity was factored.

On Saturday, July 20th new one-day temperature records were recorded in more than a half a dozen places including New York and Michigan. In this heatwave two-thirds of the Lower 48 states stifled under some of the hottest hottest weather in the U.S. since 2012.

These heatwaves are being compounded by high humidity which make it feel even hotter. In some places the combination of heat and humidity pushed heat indexes as high as 115° F (46° C). This heatwave was also notable for its warm overnight temperatures which NOAA data indicates has increased at twice the rate of summer days.

On the periphery of these heat domes is an area being described by meteorologists as the ring of fire. This is a zone where severe storms can develop. The heatwave and related storms caused power outages in areas ranging from Michigan to New York.

A slew of studies indicate these heatwaves are more likely due to global warming. The cause of the recent heatwaves in the U.S. and elsewhere is the jet-stream. A warmer world has caused the jet-stream to meander and slow down. According to a 2016 study in Nature Scientific Reports, led by climatologist Michael Mann, record temperature years are 600 to 130,000 times more likely thanks to anthropogenic climate change. Studies also show they are also longer and more intense.  Some of the most dire predictions indicate that by the end of the century the combination of of heat and humidity could push the heat index past a potentially fatal 131° F (55° C).

They will only get worse if we fail to do what common sense dictates. We must significantly reduce our greenhouse gases if we are to keep temperatures from increasing above the upper threshold limit. According to a recently published study, if we do not succeed in reigning in our greenhouse gases, parts of Florida and Texas could see temperatures over 100 F (38° C) for almost half the year.

A U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report states that under a high emissions scenario temperatures in the country will increase by 9° F in the last quarter of this century. The NCA report also states that temperature extremes are rising at an even faster rate than average temperatures. In a couple of decades five day heat waves could be 12° F warmer.

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